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Epidemic influenza in Greater London

  • C. C. Spicer (a1) and C. J. Lawrence (a1)
  • DOI:
  • Published online: 19 October 2009

The Kermack & McKendrick theory of epidemics has been applied to data on deaths from influenza and influenzal pneumonia in Greater London in the years 1950–78. As a whole the theory gives a good description of the data, and the estimated values of the parameters can be plausibly related to the natural history of the disease. However, the possibility exists that the agreement is merely empirical, and field studies would be required to confirm its validity.

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W. O. Kermack & A. G. McKendrick (1927). A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 115, 700721.

A. J. Moritz , C. Kunz , H. Hofman , E. Liehl , P. Reeve & H. F. Maassab (1980). Studies with a cold-recombinant A/Victoria/3/75 (H3N2) virus. II. Evaluation in adult volunteers. Journal of Infectious Diseases 142, 857860.

J. A. Nelder (1961). The fitting of a generalisation of the logistic curve. Biometrics 17, 89110.

P. Selby (Ed.) (1982). Influenza Models. Prospects for Development and Use. Lancaster: MTP.

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Epidemiology & Infection
  • ISSN: 0950-2688
  • EISSN: 1469-4409
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