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Estimating the impact of vaccination using age–time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B

  • N. HENS (a1), M. AERTS (a1), Z. SHKEDY (a1), P. KUNG'U KIMANI (a2), M. KOJOUHOROVA (a3), P. VAN DAMME (a4) and Ph. BEUTELS (a4)
  • DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807008692
  • Published online: 01 May 2007
Abstract
SUMMARY

The objective of this study was to model the age–time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79–84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.

Copyright
Corresponding author
*Author for correspondence: Dr N. Hens, Center for Statistics, Hasselt University, Campus Diepenbeek, Agoralaan 1, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium. (Email: niel.hens@uhasselt.be)
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Epidemiology & Infection
  • ISSN: 0950-2688
  • EISSN: 1469-4409
  • URL: /core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection
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