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Numbers in global security governance

  • Stephane J. Baele (a1), Thierry Balzacq (a2) and Philippe Bourbeau (a3)

Abstract

The use of numbers has been remarkably effective at pressing global claims. While research has documented the historical processes through which numbers gained such prominence, and has examined the political and ethical consequences of this omnipresence, very little is known regarding the specific ways in which numbers create the outcomes that sustain governance. This article proposes to close that gap. Building on the literature that acknowledges that numbers not only describe things but also have profound impacts on things themselves, this article offers an integrated account of the working dynamics of numbers in the governance of security. To do so, the article identifies three distinct but connected vectors of power through which numbers shape security governance: persuasion, (de)politicisation, and standardisation. These insights are exemplified through the prism of different empirical examples, the variety of which aims to display the advantages of the approach we propose.

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Corresponding author

* Correspondence to: Dr Stephane J. Baele, Department of Politics, Amory Building, Rennes Drive, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK. Author’s email: S.Baele@exeter.ac.uk (corresponding author).

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**

Professor Thierry Balzacq, University of Namur, Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales et de gestion, Rempart de la Vierge 8, B-5000 Namur, Belgium. Author’s email: thierry.braspenning@unamur.be

***

Dr Philippe Bourbeau, Department of Politics and International Studies (POLIS), Sidney Sussex College, University of Cambridge, 7 West Road, Alison Richard Building, Cambridge, CB39DT, UK. Author’s email: pb623@cam.ac.uk

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1 Blastland, Michael and Dilnot, Andrew, The Numbers Game: The Commonsense Guide to Understanding Numbers in the News, in Politics, and in Life (London: Penguin, 2009), p. x .

2 David Singer, Joel and Small, Melvin, The Wages of War, 1816–1965: A Statistical Handbook (New York: Wiley, 1972).

3 The problem of numbers is not limited to a single subfield; in fact, the study of numbers is a vast research domain in the humanities and social sciences. Hence, our aim in this article is not to provide a unique paradigm upon which to conduct research on numbers in society at large, but rather to specify the working mechanisms of numbers in global security governance. See Best, Joel, More Damned Lies and Statistics: How Numbers Confuse Public Issues (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2004); Desrosières, Alain, The Politics of Large Numbers: A History of Statistical Reasoning (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1998); Nelson Espeland, Wendy and Stevens, Mitchell L., ‘A sociology of quantification’, European Journal of Sociology, 49:3 (2009), pp. 401436 ; Lampland, Martha and Leigh Star, Susan (eds), Standards and their Stories: How Quantifying, Classifying, and Formalizing Practices Shape Everyday Life (Ithaca NY: Cornell University Press, 2009); Badiou, Alain, Number and Numbers (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2008); Porter, Theodore M., Trust in Numbers: The Pursuit of Objectivity in Science and Public Life (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995).

4 Grek, Sotiria and Rinne, Risto, ‘Fabricating Europe: From culture to numbers’, in Jenny Ozga et al. (ed.), Fabricating Quality in Education: Data and Governance in Europe (London: Routledge, 2011), p. 19 .

5 Krause Hansen, Hans and Porter, Tony, ‘What do numbers do in transnational governance?’, International Political Sociology, 6:4 (2012), pp. 409426 .

6 Greenhill, Kelly M., ‘Counting the cost: the politics of numbers in armed conflict’, in Peter Andreas and Kelly M. Greenhill (eds), Sex, Drugs, and Body Counts: The Politics of Numbers in Global Crime and Conflict (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2010), pp. 127158 .

7 Best, Joel, ‘Promoting BAD statistics’, Society, 38:3 (2001), p. 11 .

8 Leese, Mathias, ‘The new profiling: Algorithms, black boxes, and the failure of anti-discriminatory safeguards in the European Union’, Security Dialogue, 45:5 (2014), pp. 494511 .

9 Salter, Marc B., ‘Imagining numbers: Risk, quantification, and aviation security’, Security Dialogue, 39:2–3 (2008), pp. 243266 .

10 Nettelfield, Lara J., ‘Research and repercussions of death tolls: the case of the Bosnian Book of the Dead’, in Andreas and Greenhill (eds), Sex, Drugs, and Body Counts, pp. 158187 .

11 Tate, Winifred, ‘Accounting for absence: the Colombian paramilitaries in U.S. policy debates’, in Andreas and Greenhill (eds), Sex, Drugs, and Body Counts, pp. 215246 .

12 Fioramonti, Lorenzo, How Numbers Rule the World: The Use and Abuse of Statistics in Global Politics (New York: Zed Books, 2014), p. 20 .

13 See, for example, Broome, , André, , and Quirk, Joel, ‘The politics of numbers: the normative agendas of global benchmarking’, Review of International Studies, 41:5 (2015), pp. 813818 .

14 See, for example, Hacking, Ian, ‘Biopower and the avalanche of printed numbers’, Humanities & Society, 5:3-4 (1982), pp. 279295 .

15 See, for example, Kahan, Dan et al., ‘The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks’, Nature Climate Change, 2 (2012), pp. 732735 .

16 By studying the origin of numbers in piracy governance, Christian Bueger shows that quantification is one of the most common ‘epistemic practices’ (process of knowledge generation) in International Relations. While we do not enquire into how a phenomenon is turned into numbers, we extend Bueger’s argument by asking: ‘When numbers have been constructed, how do they achieve they effects that they realize, and under what conditions?’ See Bueger, Christian, ‘Making things known: Epistemic practices, The United Nations, and the translation of piracy’, International Political Sociology, 9:1 (2015), pp. 118 .

17 Zürn, Michael, Binder, Martin, and Ecker-Ehrhardt, Matthias, ‘International authority and its politicization’, International Theory, 4:1 (2012), pp. 69106 . This understanding stands in line with most of the literature on politicisation, for example, McCright, Aaron and Dunlap, Riley, ‘The politicization of climate change and polarization in the American public’s views of global warming’, The Sociological Quarterly, 52 (2011), pp. 155194 ; De Wilde, Pieter, ‘No polity for old politics? A framework for analyzing the politicization of European integration’, Journal of European Integration, 33:5 (2011), pp. 559575 .

18 Rosenau, James N., ‘Governance in the twenty-first century’, Global Governance, 1 (2004), p. 31 .

19 Rhodes, Rod A. W., ‘The new governance: Governing without governance’, Political Quarterly, 65 (1986), pp. 652653 . See also Stoker, Gerry, ‘Governance as theory: Five propositions’, International Social Science Journal, 155 (1998), pp. 1728 .

20 Rose, Nikolas, ‘Governing by numbers: Figuring out democracy’, Accounting, Organisation & Society, 16 (1991), p. 675 ; Miller, Peter, ‘Governing by numbers: Why calculative practices matter’, Social Research, 68:2 (2001), p. 380 .

21 Miller, ‘Governing by numbers’, p. 380.

22 Rose, ‘Governing by numbers’, p. 691.

23 Desrosières, The Politics of Large Numbers. Our view is that if we associate ‘ways of doing things’ and ‘the programmes that attempt to invest them with particular purposes’ ( Dean, Mitchell, Governmentality. Power and Rule in Modern Society (London: Sage, 1999), p. 22), we come a little bit closer to, even if we don’t map exactly, the terrain covered by governmentality ( Jacob Sending, Ole and Neumann, Iver B., ‘Governance to governmentality: Analyzing NGOs, states, and power’, International Studies Quarterly, 50:3 (2006), pp. 651672).

24 Starr, Paul, ‘The sociology of official statistics’, in William Alonso and Paul Starr (eds), The Politics of Numbers (New York: Russel Sage, 1989), p. 8 .

25 Ibid., p. 8.

26 Though this can be shown through standardisation, it must be noted that the task of tracing the effects of numbers on agents’ capacity and subjectivity is not always as easy as thought. We thank the referees for drawing our attention to this point.

27 Rose, ‘Governing by numbers’, p. 675.

28 Barnett, Michael and Duvall, Raymond, ‘Power in international politics’, International Organization, 59 (2005), pp. 5157 .

29 Löwenheim, Oded, ‘Examining the state: a Foucauldian perspective on international “governance indicators”’, Third World Quarterly, 29:2 (2008), pp. 255274 .

30 Foucault, Michel, Sécurité, territoire, population: Cours au Collège de France, 1977–1978 (Paris: Gallimard, 2004), pp. 280284 .

31 Ian Hacking, ‘Biopower and the avalanche of printed numbers’, pp. 279–95; Cline Cohen, Patricia, Calculating People: The Spread of Numeracy in Early America (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982); Desrosières, The Politics of Large Numbers.

32 Starr, ‘The sociology of official statistics’, p. 14.

33 Esther Beecher, Catharine, Respecting Improvements in Education (Hartford: Packard & Butler, 1829), p. 145 .

34 Rose, ‘Governing by numbers’, p. 676.

35 Hansen and Porter, ‘What do numbers do in transnational governance?’, p. 414.

36 Robson, Keith, ‘Accounting numbers as “inscription”: Action at a distance and the development of accounting’, Accounting, Organizations and Society, 17:7 (1992), pp. 685708 .

37 Krause Hansen, Hans, ‘The power of performance indices in the global politics of anti-corruption’, Journal of International Relations & Development, 15:4 (2012), p. 510 .

38 Rouvroy, Antoinette and Berns, Thomas, ‘Le nouveau pouvoir statistique’, Multitudes, 40:1 (2010), pp. 88103 .

39 Bréant, Hugo, ‘Démontrer le rôle positif des migrations internationales par les chiffres: une analyse de la rhétorique institutionnelle du Système des Nations Unies’, Mots, Les Langages du Politique, 100 (2012), p. 156 .

40 Petty, Richard E. and Cacioppo, John T., Attitudes and Persuasion: Classic and Contemporary Approaches (Dubuque: William C. Brown, 1981); Petty, Richard E. and Cacioppo, John T., ‘Central and peripheral routes to persuasion: Application to advertising’, in Larry Percy and Arch Woodside (eds), Advertising and Consumer Psychology (Lexington: Lexington Books, 1983), pp. 323 .

41 Yalch, Richard F. and Elmore-Yalch, Rebecca, ‘The effect of numbers on the route to persuasion’, Journal of Consumer Research, 1:1 (1984), pp. 522527 .

42 Allen, Mike and Preiss, Raymond W., ‘Comparing the persuasiveness of narrative and statistical evidence using meta-analysis’, Communication Research Reports, 14:2 (1997), pp. 125131 .

43 Yalch and Elmore-Yalch, ‘The effect of numbers on the route to persuasion’.

44 Artz, Nancy and Tybout, Alice M., ‘The moderating impact of quantitative information on the relationship between source credibility and persuasion: a persuasion knowledge model interpretation’, Marketing Letters, 10:1 (1999), pp. 5162 .

45 Kahan, Dan M. and Braman, Donald, ‘More statistics, less persuasion: a cultural theory of gun-risk perceptions’, University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 151:4 (2003), pp. 12911327 .

46 Ju, Ilwoo and Seong Park, Jin, ‘When numbers count: Framing, subjective numeracy, and the effects of message quantification in direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertisements’, Journal of Promotion Management, 19:4 (2013), pp. 488506 .

47 Ratneshwar, S. and Chaiken, Shelly, ‘Comprehension’s role in persuasion: the case of its moderating effect on the persuasive impact of source cues’, Journal of Consumer Research, 18:1 (1991), pp. 5262 .

48 Kahan et al., ‘The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy’; Dan Kahan et al., ‘Motivated Numeracy and Enlightened Self-Government’, Yale Law School Public Law Working Paper No. 307 (2013), p. 1.

49 Ibid.

50 Massi Lindsey, Lisa L. and Ah Yun, Kimo, ‘Examining the persuasive effect of statistical messages: a test of mediating relationships’, Communication Studies, 54:3 (2003), pp. 306321 .

51 Schindler, Robert and Yalch, Richard F., ‘It seems factual, but is it? Effects of using sharp versus round numbers in advertising claims’, Advances in Consumer Research, 33 (2006), pp. 586590 .

52 See, for example, Bleiker, Roland, ‘Pluralist methods for visual global politics’, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, 43:3 (2015), pp. 872890 ; Bleiker, Roland, Campbell, David, Hutchison, Emma, and Nicholson, Xzarina, ‘The visual dehumanisation of refugees’, Australian Journal of Political Science, 48:4 (2013), pp. 398416 ; Hansen, Lene, ‘Theorizing the image for security studies: Visual securitization and the Muhammad Cartoon Crisis’, European Journal of International Relations, 17:1 (2011), pp. 5174 ; Hansen, Lene, ‘How images make world politics: International icons and the case of Abu Ghraib’, Review of International Studies, 41 (2015), pp. 263288 .

53 Ratneshwar and Chaiken, ‘Comprehension’s role in persuasion’.

54 Boswell, Christina, ‘The political functions of expert knowledge: Knowledge and legitimation in EU immigration policy’, Journal of European Public Policy, 15:4 (2008), pp. 471488 ; Boswell, Christina, The Political Uses of Expert Knowledge: Immigration Policy and Social Research (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009).

55 Boswell, The Political Uses of Expert Knowledge, p. 89.

56 Boswell, ‘The political functions of expert knowledge’, p. 472.

57 Conley, Tom, ‘Globalisation and the politics of persuasion and coercion’, Australian Journal of Social Issues, 39:2 (2004), pp. 183200 .

58 Abbott, Kenneth W. and Snidal, Duncan, ‘International “standards” and international governance’, Journal of European Public Policy, 8:3 (2001), pp. 345370 .

59 Risse, Thomas, ‘“Let’s argue!”: Communicative action in world politics’, International Organization, 54:1 (2000), pp. 139 .

60 See, for example, Crawford, Neta C., ‘Homo politicus and argument (nearly) all the way down: Persuasion in politics’, Perspectives on Politics, 7:9 (2009), pp. 103124 .

61 Bréant, ‘Démontrer le rôle positif des migrations internationales par les chiffres’.

62 Hunter Wade, Robert, ‘Is globalization reducing poverty and inequality?’, World Development, 32:4 (2004), pp. 567589 .

63 Boswell, ‘The political functions of expert knowledge’, p. 471.

64 Molle, François and Mollinga, Peter, ‘Water poverty indicators: Conceptual problems and policy issues’, Water Policy, 5 (2003), pp. 529544 .

65 Vauchez, Antoine, ‘Un argument de poids: le chiffre dans le “gouvernement” de la justice’, Revue Française d’Administration Publique, 125 (2008), pp. 111121 ; Vanneuville, Rachel, ‘Le chiffre au service du droit ou le droit au service du chiffre?’, Mots, Les Langages du Politique, 100 (2012), pp. 123136 .

66 Vauchez, ‘Un argument de poids’, p. 4.

67 Bréant, ‘Démontrer le rôle positif des migrations internationales par les chiffres’.

68 Molle and Molinga, ‘Water poverty indicators’, p. 537.

69 Wade, ‘Is globalization reducing poverty and inequality?’.

70 Arguably not the most rigorous tool yet nonetheless sufficient to reveal broad trends like this one.

71 King, Gary and Murray, Christopher, ‘Rethinking human security’, Political Science Quarterly, 116:4 (2001), p. 585 .

72 King, and Murray, , ‘Rethinking human security’; Astri Suhrke, ‘Human security and the interests of states’, Security Dialogue, 30:3 (1999), p. 266 .

73 The following quote from the report exemplifies this: ‘In developing countries, the major causes of death are infectious and parasitic diseases, which kill 17 million people annually, including 6.5 million from acute respiratory infections, 4.5 million from diarrhoeal diseases and 3.5 million from tuberculosis. Most of these deaths are linked with poor nutrition and an unsafe environment.’

74 Hansen, ‘The power of performance indices’.

75 See above Robson, ‘Accounting numbers as “inscription”’.

76 Cruz, Consuelo, ‘Identity and persuasion: How nations remember their pasts and make their futures’, World Politics, 52:3 (2000), p. 275 .

77 Boswell, The Political Uses of Expert Knowledge, p. 3.

78 Rose, ‘Governing by numbers’, p. 674.

79 Molle and Molinga, ‘Water poverty indicators’, p. 538.

80 Hood, Christopher, ‘A public management for all seasons?’, Public Administration, 69:1 (1991), pp. 319 .

81 On the ability of IOs to create referential knowledge and patterns of action, see, for example, Ilcan, Suzan and Phillips, Lynne, ‘Making food count: Expert knowledge and global technologies of government’, Canadian Review of Sociology/Revue Canadienne de Sociologie, 40:4 (2003), p. 441 ; Barnett, Michael N. and Finnemore, Martha, ‘The politics, power, and pathologies of international organizations’, International Organization, 53:4 (1999), pp. 699732 .

82 Robson, ‘Accounting numbers as “inscription”’.

83 Translated from the French ‘élargir au maximum les naturalisations, plus de 14 %, encourager les régularisations, plus de 51 % du fait de la circulaire Valls, et diminuer le nombre des reconduites, moins 26.6 %, tout ceci aboutit à une augmentation de l’immigration légale qui est de 7 %. Ça signifie que concrètement dans notre pays arrivent chaque année près de 300,000 personnes, c’est-à-dire l'équivalent de la ville de Nantes.’ Available at: {http://www.europe1.fr/politique/juppe-siffle-hortefeux-retient-l-enthousiasme-des-adherents-2297281}.

84 For a discussion of what constitutes a securitising attempt, see Buzan, Barry, Wæver, Ole and De Wilde, Jaap, Security, A New Framework for Analysis (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1998), Balzacq, Thierry, Leonard, Sarah, and Ruzicka, Jan, ‘Securitization revisited: Theory and cases’, International Relations, 30:4 (2016), pp. 494531 ; Bourbeau, Philippe, ‘Moving forward together: Logics of the securitisation process’, Millennium, 43:1 (2014), pp. 187206 ; Baele, Stéphane and Sterck, Olivier, ‘Diagnosing the securitisation of immigration at the EU level: a new method for stronger empirical claims’, Political Studies, 63:5 (2015), pp. 11201139 .

85 Grundmann, Reiner, ‘Climate change and knowledge politics’, Environmental Politics, 16:3 (2007), p. 416 .

86 Ibid., p. 415.

87 Boussalis, Constantine and Coan, Travis, ‘Text-mining the signals of climate change doubt’, Global Environmental Change, 36 (2016), pp. 89100 .

88 Molle and Molinga, ‘Water poverty indicators’, p. 537.

89 Bréant, ‘Démontrer le rôle positif des migrations internationales par les chiffres’, p. 154.

90 Kahan et al., ‘The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy’.

91 King and Murray, ‘Rethinking human security’.

92 For example, by systematically using large numbers emphasising the global dimension of these issues, the report sought to imply that supranational efforts led by the UN, and ultimately a reinforcement of the UN (at a critical time for the organisation) were the obvious solutions.

93 Brunsson, Nils and Jacobsson, Bengt, A World of Standards (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000); King, Desmond and Stears, Marc, ‘How the U.S. state works: a theory of standardization’, Perspectives on Politics, 9:3 (2011), pp. 505518 .

94 We do not want to suggest, however, that all standardisation attempts are successful or that standardisation is a smooth and uncontested process.

95 Scott, James C., Seeing Like a State (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1998).

96 We do not argue that all standards are numerical; the aim here is rather to show the particular mechanisms produced by numbers-based standardisation.

97 Lamont, Michèle et al., ‘What is missing? Cultural processes and causal pathways to inequality’, Socio-Economic Review, 12 (2014), pp. 573608 .

98 Abbott and Snidal, ‘International “standards” and international governance’; Mattli, Walter, ‘The politics and economics of international institutional standards setting: an introduction’, Journal of European Public Policy, 8:3 (2001), pp. 328344 ; Mattli, Walter and Woods, Ngaire (eds), The Politics of Global Regulation (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009); Shenhav, Yahouda, Manufacturing Rationality (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999); Spruyt, Hendrik, ‘The supply and demand of governance in standard-setting: Insights from the past’, Journal of European Public Policy, 8:3 (2001), pp. 371391 .

99 Timmermans, Stefan and Epstein, Steven, ‘A world of standards but not a standard world: Toward a sociology of standards and standardization’, Annual Review of Sociology, 36 (2010), pp. 6989 .

100 DeVore, Marc R., ‘Organizing international armaments cooperation: Institutional design and path dependencies in Europe’, European Security, 21:3 (2012), pp. 432458 ; Taylor, Phillip, ‘Weapons standardization in NATO: Collaborative security or economic competition?’, International Organization, 36:1 (1982), pp. 95112 .

101 Singer and Small, The Wages of War, 1816–1965.

102 Although this terminological standard has been highly influential, it has also been criticised. See, for example, Sambanis, Nicholas, ‘What is civil war? Conceptual and empirical complexities of an operational definition’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48:6 (2004), pp. 814858 ; Lacina, Bethany and Gleditsch, Nils P., ‘Monitoring trends in global combat: a new dataset of battle deaths’, European Journal of Population, 21 (2005), pp. 145166 .

103 Kelley, Judith G. and Simmons, Beth A, ‘Politics by number: Indicators as social pressure in International Relations’, American Journal of Political Science, 59:1 (2015), pp. 5570 ; Broome, André and Quirk, Joel, ‘The politics of numbers: the normative agendas of global benchmarking’, Review of International Studies, 41:5 (2015), pp. 813818 .

104 Broome and Quirk, ‘The politics of numbers’, p. 815.

105 King and Stears, ‘How the U.S. state works’.

106 Krause Hansen, Hans and Mühlen-Schulte, Arthur, ‘The power of numbers in global governance’, Journal of International Relations & Development, 15:4 (2012), pp. 455465 .

107 Hirschman, Albert O., The Passion and the Interests: Political Arguments for Capitalism before its Triumph (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013).

108 Burchell, Graham, ‘Liberal government and techniques of the self’, in Andrew Barry, Thomas Osborne, Nikolas Rose (eds), Foucault and Political Reason: Liberalism, Neo-Liberalism and Rationalities of Government (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996), pp. 1936 .

109 Radaelli, Claudio and De Francesco, Fabrizio, Regulatory Quality in Europe: Concepts, Measures and Policy Processes (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2011).

110 Hopf, Ted, ‘The logic of habit in International Relations’, European Journal of International Relations, 16:4 (2010), pp. 539561 ; Lamont, et al., ‘What is missing?’; Vincent Pouliot, ‘The logic of practicality: a theory of practice of security communities’, International Organization, 62:2 (2008), pp. 257288 .

111 Ole Jacob Sending and Iver Neumann, ‘Banking on power: How some practices in an international organization anchor others’, in Emmanuel Adler and Vincent Pouliot (eds), International Practices (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011), p. 232.

112 Greenhill, ‘Counting the cost’.

113 Brunsson, Nils et al., ‘The dynamics of standardization: Three perspectives on standards in organization studies’, Organization Studies, 33:5–6 (2012), pp. 613632 .

114 Day, Patricia and Klein, Rudolph, Accountabilities: Five Public Services (Tavistock: Seiten, 1987), p. 244 ; Fioramonti, How Numbers Rule the World.

115 Gasper, Des, ‘Securing humanity: Situating “human security” as concept and discourse’, Journal of Human Development, 6:2 (2005), p. 239 .

116 Owen, Taylor, ‘Measuring human security: Overcoming the paradox’, Human Security Bulletin, 2:3 (2003), p. 2 .

117 Homolar, Alexandra, ‘Human security benchmarks: Governing human wellbeing at a distance’, Review of International Studies, 41:5 (2015), p. 845 .

118 Lamont et al., ‘What is missing?’; Timmermans and Epstein, ‘A world of standards but not a standard world’.

119 See, for instance, Majone, Giandomenico, Evidence, Argument and Persuasion in the Policy Process (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1992).

120 Theodore M. Porter puts it in slightly different terms: ‘Adequate description counts for little if the numbers are not also reasonably standardized. Only in this way does calculation establish norms and guidelines by which actors can be judged and can judge themselves.’ Porter, Trust in Numbers, p. 44.

** Professor Thierry Balzacq, University of Namur, Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales et de gestion, Rempart de la Vierge 8, B-5000 Namur, Belgium. Author’s email:

*** Dr Philippe Bourbeau, Department of Politics and International Studies (POLIS), Sidney Sussex College, University of Cambridge, 7 West Road, Alison Richard Building, Cambridge, CB39DT, UK. Author’s email:

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