The aim of this study is identifying the predictors of major depression and anxiety disorders and the predictors of the remission of these disorders.

A longitudinal study under the form of a community survey includes a randomly selected sample of 2,434 individuals between 15 and 65 years of age (T1); 1,815 agreed to be re-interviewed two years later (T2). Mental disorders were identified with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, including mood disorders (major depression, and mania), and some anxiety disorders: panic disorder (PD), social phobia (SP), and agoraphobia (AG). Logistic regression was used to identify predictors (T1) of remission of mood disoders and anxiety disorders at T2 and predictor of new cases at T2.

The prevalence of mental disorders for the two waves of the research program will be presented. For major depression (MD), among the 145 subjects who had MD at T1, 69% recovered at T2 and among the 1553 that did not have MD at T1, 5.7% developed MD at T2. For anxiety disorders, among the 93 subjects who had these disorders at T1, 78.4% recovered at T2 and among the 1635 subjects who were free of an anxiety disorder at T1, 1.8% developed it at T2. Predictors identified for remission of disorders and for developing new disorders at T2 will be presented.

The predictors of new cases identified will allow to develop more effective prevention program and those associated to remissions will help to improve mental health services.