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The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 January 2015

Ardian Harri
Affiliation:
Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS
Lanier Nalley
Affiliation:
University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR
Darren Hudson
Affiliation:
Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX
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Abstract

Exchange rates have long been thought to have an important impact on the export and import of goods and services, and, thus, exchange rates are expected to influence the price of those products that are traded. At the same time, energy impacts commodity production in some very important ways. The use of chemical and petroleum derived inputs has increased in agriculture over time; the prices of these critical inputs, then, would be expected to alter supply, and, therefore, the prices of commodities using these inputs. Also, agricultural commodities have been increasingly used to produce energy, thereby leading to an expectation of a linkage between energy and commodity markets. In this paper, we examine the price relationship through time of the primary agricultural commodities, exchange rates, and oil prices. Using overlapping time periods, we examine the cointegration relationship between prices to determine changes in the strength of the linkage between markets through time. In general, we find that commodity prices are linked to oil for corn, cotton, and soybeans, but not for wheat, and that exchange rates do play a role in the linkage of prices over time.

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Invited Paper Sessions
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2009

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