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Climate variability and potential distribution of selected pest species in south Moravia and north-east Austria in the past 200 years – lessons for the future

  • E. SVOBODOVÁ (a1) (a2), M. TRNKA (a1) (a2), Z. ŽALUD (a1) (a2), D. SEMERÁDOVÁ (a1), M. DUBROVSKÝ (a2) (a3), J. EITZINGER (a2) (a4), P. ŠTĚPÁNEK (a2) and R. BRÁZDIL (a2) (a5)...

The present study investigated the historical occurrence of the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis), the European grape vine moth (Lobesia botrana) and the Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) in southern Moravia and northern Austria from 1803–2008 by using climate and pest models. The pest model used, CLIMEX, indicates areas that are climatically favourable for the pest's development and long-term survival, considering the climatic parameters, especially daily air temperature, as determining factors for pest development. For model input parameters, two sets of meteorological data were prepared: (i) a generated meteorological series for 1803–2008 and (ii) a measured reference meteorological series for 1976–2008. In addition to estimating the historical climatic suitability for the persistence of a given pest, a second aim of the present study was to specify the core of the climatic niche during the continued presence of the pest and evaluate the applicability of the meteorological data generated for climate, based on pest mapping. This evaluation resulted in a partial overestimation of pest occurrence for L. botrana when using the generated meteorological data set. This species, native to warmer areas, has proved to be a sensitive indicator of increased temperatures.

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