Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-x4r87 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T09:31:54.930Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Spillover Effects among Financial Institutions: A State-Dependent Sensitivity Value-at-Risk Approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 May 2014

Zeno Adams
Affiliation:
zeno.adams@unisg.ch, Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance, University of St. Gallen, Rosenbergstrasse 52, 9000 St. Gallen, Switzerland
Roland Füss
Affiliation:
roland.fuess@unisg.ch, Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance, University of St. Gallen, Rosenbergstrasse 52, 9000 St. Gallen, Switzerland
Reint Gropp
Affiliation:
reint.gropp@hof.uni-frankfurt.de, House of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt, Grüneburgplatz 1, 60323 Frankfurt, Germany.

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a state-dependent sensitivity value-at-risk (SDSVaR) approach that enables us to quantify the direction, size, and duration of risk spillovers among financial institutions as a function of the state of financial markets (tranquil, normal, and volatile). For four sets of major financial institutions (commercial banks, investment banks, hedge funds, and insurance companies), we show that while small during normal times, equivalent shocks lead to considerable spillover effects in volatile market periods. Commercial banks and, especially, hedge funds appear to play a major role in the transmission of shocks to other financial institutions.

Type
Research Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acharya, V. V.; Pedersen, L. H.; Philippon, T.; and Richardson, M.. “Measuring Systemic Risk.” Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper No. DP8824 (2010).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adrian, T., and Brunnermeier, M. K.. “CoVaR.” Working Paper, Princeton University (2011).Google Scholar
Allen, F., and Gale, D.. “Systemic Risk and Regulation.” In The Risks of Financial Institutions, Carey, M. and Stulz, R. M., eds. Chicago: Chicago University Press (2007).Google Scholar
Altunbas, Y.; Gambacorta, L.; and Marquez-Ibanez, D.. “Bank Risk and Monetary Policy.” Journal of Financial Stability, 6 (2010), 121129.Google Scholar
Barone-Adesi, G., and Giannopoulos, K.. “Non-Parametric VaR Techniques. Myths and Realities.” Economic Notes, 30 (2001), 167181.Google Scholar
Berkowitz, J., and O’Brien, J.. “How Accurate Are Value-at-Risk Models at Commercial Banks?Journal of Finance, 57 (2002), 10931111.Google Scholar
Bernanke, B. “Hedge Funds and Systemic Risk.” Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Financial Markets Conference, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC (May 16, 2006).Google Scholar
Billio, M.; Getmansky, M.; Lo, A. W.; and Pelizzon, L.. “Econometric Measures of Connectedness and Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors.” Journal of Financial Economics, 3 (2012), 535559.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Billio, M.; Getmansky, M.; and Pelizzon, L.. “Crises and Hedge Fund Risk.” University Ca’ Foscari of Venice Research Paper Series No. 10/08, available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1130742 (2009).Google Scholar
Bollerslev, T. “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.” Journal of Econometrics, 31 (1986), 307327.Google Scholar
Boyson, N. M.; Stahel, C. W.; and Stulz, R. M.. “Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity Shocks.” Journal of Finance, 65 (2010), 17891816.Google Scholar
Brown, S. J., and Spitzer, J. F.. “Caught by the Tail: Tail Risk Neutrality and Hedge Fund Returns.” Working Paper, New York University (2006).Google Scholar
Brownlees, C. T., and Engle, R. F.. “Volatility, Correlation and Tails for Systemic Risk Measurement.” Working Paper, New York University (2011).Google Scholar
Brunnermeier, M. K. “Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007–2008.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23 (2009), 77100.Google Scholar
Brunnermeier, M. K., and Oehmke, M.. “Bubbles, Financial Crisis, and Systemic Risk.” In Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Vol. II, Constantinides, G. M., Harris, M., and Stulz, R. M., eds. Amsterdam: Elsevier (2012).Google Scholar
Brunnermeier, M. K., and Pedersen, L. H.. “Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity.” Review of Financial Studies, 22 (2009), 22012238.Google Scholar
Campello, M.; Graham, J. R.; and Harvey, C. R.. “The Real Effects of Financial Constraints: Evidence from a Financial Crisis.” Journal of Financial Economics, 97 (2010), 470487.Google Scholar
Cappiello, L.; Gérard, B.; and Manganelli, S.. “Measuring Comovements by Regression Quantiles.” European Central Bank Working Paper No. 501 (2005).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, N.; Getmansky, M.; Haas, S. M.; and Lo, A. W.. “Do Hedge Funds Increase Systemic Risk?Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Q4 (2006), 4980.Google Scholar
Danielsson, J., and De Vries, C. G.. “Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns.” Annales D’Économie et de Statistique, 60 (Special Issue) (2000), 239270.Google Scholar
Danielsson, J., and Shin, H. S.. “Endogenous Risk.” In Modern Risk Management: A History. London: Risk Books (2003), 297316.Google Scholar
Danielsson, J.; Shin, H. S.; and Zigrand, J.-P.. “Risk Appetite and Endogenous Risk.” Working Paper, London School of Economics (2009).Google Scholar
Danielsson, J.; Taylor, A.; and Zigrand, J.-P.. “Highwaymen or Heroes: Should Hedge Funds Be Regulated? A Survey.” Journal of Financial Stability, 1 (2005), 522543.Google Scholar
Diamond, D. W., and Rajan, R. G.. “Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises.” Journal of Finance, 60 (2005), 615647.Google Scholar
Ding, B.; Getmansky, M.; Liang, B.; and Wermers, R.. “Share Restrictions and Investor Flows in the Hedge Fund Industry.” Working Paper, available at https://udrive.oit.umass.edu/msherman/web/pubs/Flow_Restrictions_09_Final.pdf (2009).Google Scholar
Engle, R. F., and Manganelli, S.. “CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 22 (2004), 367381.Google Scholar
Fenn, G. W., and Cole, R. A.. “Announcements of Asset-Quality Problems and Contagion Effects in the Life Insurance Industry.” Journal of Financial Economics, 35 (1994), 181198.Google Scholar
Garbaravicius, T., and Dierick, F.. “Hedge Funds and Their Implications for Financial Stability.” European Central Bank Occasional Paper Series No. 34 (2005).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greenlaw, D.; Hatzius, J.; Kashyap, A. K.; and Shin, H. S.. “Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown.” U.S. Monetary Policy Forum 2008 Report No. 2 (2008).Google Scholar
Gropp, R.; Lo Duca, M.; and Vesala, J.. “Cross-Border Bank Contagion in Europe.” International Journal of Central Banking, 5 (2009), 97139.Google Scholar
Gropp, R., and Moerman, G.. “Measurement of Contagion in Banks’ Equity Prices.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 23 (2004), 405559.Google Scholar
Hakenes, H., and Schnabel, I.. “Credit Risk Transfer and Bank Competition.” Journal of Financial Intermediation, 19 (2010), 308332.Google Scholar
Halstead, J. M.; Hegde, S.; and Klein, L. S.. “Hedge Fund Crisis and Financial Contagion: Evidence from Long-Term Capital Management.” Journal of Alternative Investments, 8 (2005), 6582.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hartmann, P.; Straetmans, S.; and de Vries, C. G.. “Banking System Stability: A Cross-Atlantic Perspective.” In The Risks of Financial Institutions, Carey, M. and Stulz, R. M., eds. Chicago: Chicago University Press (2007).Google Scholar
Hott, C. “Herding Behavior in Asset Markets.” Journal of Financial Stability, 5 (2009), 3556.Google Scholar
Kambhu, J.; Schuermann, T.; and Stiroh, K. J.. “Hedge Funds, Financial Intermediation, and Systemic Risk.” FRNB Economic Policy Review, 13 (2007), 118.Google Scholar
King, M. R., and Maier, P.. “Hedge Funds and Financial Stability: Regulating Prime Brokers Will Mitigate Systemic Risks.” Journal of Financial Stability, 5 (2009), 283297.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klaus, B., and Rzepkowski, B.. “Risk Spillovers among Hedge Funds: The Role of Redemptions and Fund Failures.” European Central Bank Working Paper Series No. 1112 (2009). Google Scholar
Koenker, R. Quantile Regression. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press (2005).Google Scholar
Koenker, R., and Bassett, G.. “Regression Quantiles.” Econometrica, 46 (1978), 3350.Google Scholar
Kroszner, R. S.; Laeven, L.; and Klingebiel, D.. “Banking Crises, Financial Dependence, and Growth.” Journal of Financial Economics, 84 (2007), 187228.Google Scholar
Kuester, K.; Mittnik, S.; and Paolella, M. S.. “Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies.” Journal of Financial Econometrics, 4 (2006), 5389.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lo, A. W. “Hedge Funds, Systemic Risk, and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2008: Written Testimony of Andrew W. Lo, Prepared for the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.” Available at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1301217 (2008).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nelson, D. B. “Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach.” Econometrica, 59 (1991), 347370.Google Scholar
Powell, J. L. “The Asymptotic Normality of Two-Stage Least Absolute Deviations Estimators.” Econometrica, 51 (1983), 15691575.Google Scholar
Shleifer, A., and Vishny, R. W.. “Unstable Banking.” Journal of Financial Economics, 97 (2010), 306318.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
The Economist. “Prime Movers. Beware the Fragile Relationship Between Prime Brokers and Hedge Funds.” Available at http://www.economist.com/node/9622234 (Aug. 9, 2007).Google Scholar
The Economist. “Prime Brokers. Do the Brokey-Cokey. Where Will Hedge Funds Put their Business in Future?” Available at http://www.economist.com/node/12465393 (Oct. 23, 2008).Google Scholar
Vinod, H., and López-de-Lacalle, J.. “Maximum Entropy Bootstrap for Time Series: The meboot R Package.” Journal of Statistical Software, 29 (2009), 119.Google Scholar
Wagner, W. “Diversification at Financial Institutions and Systemic Crises.” Journal of Financial Intermediation, 19 (2010), 373386.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
White, H.; Kim, T.-H.; and Manganelli, S.. “VAR for VaR: Measuring Systemic Risk Using Multivariate Regression Quantiles.” Working Paper, European Central Bank (2010).Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Adams Supplementary Material

Adams Supplementary Material

Download Adams Supplementary Material(PDF)
PDF 242.7 KB