In terms of total output, 1965 appears just as much a ‘stop’ year as 1961. Indeed the movement of output since 1962 matches closely the movement in the last recovery from 1958 to 1961, (chart 1). It is true that the 1965 figures are incomplete, and liable to revision; but the revisions are not likely to be massive enough, nor the rise in output in the fourth quarter big enough, to invalidate the general comparison. This year, there is no great conflict of evidence arising from divergent movements of the output, incomes and expenditure measures. We estimate that output in the fourth quarter of 1965 was about 1½ per cent higher than a year earlier; at most the figure is unlikely to be above 2 per cent, which was the rise during 1961.