Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
Hostname: page-component-544b6db54f-8tjh8 Total loading time: 0.678 Render date: 2021-10-25T05:52:42.880Z Has data issue: true Feature Flags: { "shouldUseShareProductTool": true, "shouldUseHypothesis": true, "isUnsiloEnabled": true, "metricsAbstractViews": false, "figures": true, "newCiteModal": false, "newCitedByModal": true, "newEcommerce": true, "newUsageEvents": true }

Who Do You Trust? The Consequences of Partisanship and Trust for Public Responsiveness to COVID-19 Orders

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 April 2021

Abstract

Non-uniform compliance with public policy by citizens can undermine the effectiveness of government, particularly during crises. Mitigation policies intended to combat the novel coronavirus offer a real-world measure of citizen compliance, allowing us to examine the determinants of asymmetrical responsiveness. Analyzing county-level cellphone data, we leverage staggered roll-out to estimate the causal effect of stay-at-home orders on mobility using a difference-in-differences strategy. We find movement is significantly curtailed, and examination of descriptive heterogeneous effects suggests the key roles that partisanship and trust play in producing irregular compliance. We find that Republican-leaning counties comply less than Democratic-leaning ones, which we argue underlines the importance of trust in science and acceptance of large-scale government policies for compliance. However, this partisan compliance gap shrinks when directives are given by Republican leaders, suggesting citizens are more trusting of co-partisan leaders. Furthermore, we find that higher levels of social trust increase compliance; yet these gains attenuate or intensify depending upon community-level partisan sentiments. Our study provides a real-world, behavioral measure that demonstrates the influence of partisanship, social trust, and their interaction on citizen welfare. Finally, we argue that our results speak to how trust in government may impact successful containment of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Type
Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

A list of permanent links to Supplemental Materials provided by the authors precedes the References section.

Data replication sets are available in Harvard Dataverse at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CEJAHP

References

Albertson, Bethany, and Gadarian, Shana Kushner. 2015. Anxious Politics: Democratic Citizenship in a Threatening World. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, and Ferrara, Eliana La. 2000. “Participation in Heterogeneous Communities.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 115: 847904.Google Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, and Ferrara, Eliana La. 2002. “Who Trusts Others?Journal of Public Economics 85: 207–34.Google Scholar
Allcott, Hunt, Boxell, Levi, Conway, Jacob, Gentzkow, Matthew, Thaler, Michael, and Yang, David Y.. 2020. “Polarization and Public Health: Partisan Differences in Social Distancing during the Coronavirus Pandemic.” NBER Working Paper 26946. DOI 10.3386/w26946Google Scholar
Almond, Gabriel Abraham, and Verba, Sidney. 2015. The Civic Culture: Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Alt, James E., Marshall, John, and Lassen, David D.. 2016. “Credible Sources and Sophisticated Voters: When Does New Information Induce Economic Voting?Journal of Politics 78(2): 327–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrios, John Manuel, and Hochberg, Yael V.. 2020. “Risk Perception through the Lens of Politics in the Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 27008. DOI 10.3386/w27008Google Scholar
Bechtel, Michael M., Genovese, Federica, and Scheve, Kenneth F.. 2019. “Interests, Norms and Support for the Provision of Global Public Goods: the Case of Climate Co-operation.” British Journal of Political Science 49(4): 1333–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennhold, Katrin. 2020. “A German Exception? Why the Country’s Coronavirus Death Rate Is Low.” New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html).Google Scholar
Berman, Sheri. 1997. “Civil Society and the Collapse of the Weimar Republic.” World Politics 49(3): 401–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Besley, Timothy, Jensen, Anders, and Persson, Torsten. 2019. “Norms, Enforcement, and Tax Evasion.” National Bureau of Economic Research Workong Paper 25575. DOI 10.3386/w25575CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bianco, William. 2003. “Uncertainty, Appraisal, and Common Interest: The Roots of Constituent Trust.” In Trust and Governance, ed. Braithwaite, Valerie and Levi, Margaret, 245–66. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Bianco, William T. 1994. Trust: Representatives and constituents. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bjørnskov, Christian. 2010. “How Does Social Trust Lead to Better Governance? An Attempt to Separate Electoral and Bureaucratic Mechanisms.” Public Choice 144:323–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blair, Robert A., Morse, Benjamin S., and Tsai, Lily L.. 2017. “Public Health and Public Trust: Survey Evidence from the Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic in Liberia.” Social Science & Medicine 172:8997. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2016.11.016CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Blank, Joshua M., and Shaw, Daron. 2015. “Does Partisanship Shape Attitudes toward Science and Public Policy? The Case for Ideology and Religion.” ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 658(1): 1835.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bolsen, Toby, and Druckman, James N.. 2018. “Do Partisanship and Politicization Undermine the Impact of a Scientific Consensus Message about Climate Change?Group Processes & Intergroup Relations 21:389402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bolsen, Toby, Druckman, James N., and Cook, Fay Lomax. 2014. “The Influence of Partisan Motivated Reasoning on Public Opinion.” Political Behavior 36(3): 235–62.Google Scholar
Broockman, David E., and Butler, Daniel M.. 2017. “The Causal Effects of Elite Position-Taking on Voter Attitudes: Field Experiments with Elite Communication.” American Journal of Political Science 61(1): 208–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, Anna. 2017. “Republicans More Likely Than Democrats to Have Confidence in Police.” Pew Research Study (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/13/republicans-more-likely-than-democrats-to-have-confidence-in-police/).Google Scholar
Bustikova, Lenka, and Corduneanu-Huci, Cristina. 2017. “Patronage, Trust, and State Capacity: The Historical Trajectories of Clientelism.” World Politics 69(2): 277326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buttice, Matthew K., and Highton, Benjamin. 2013. “How Does Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Perform with Conventional National Surveys?Political Analysis 21(4): 449–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services: Center for Minority Health. 2017. Mapping Medicare Disparities. [Data file] (https://data.cms.gov/mapping-medicare-disparities).Google Scholar
Chen, Judy Y., Fox, Sarah A., Cantrell, Clairessa H., Stockdale, Susan E., and Kagawa-Singer, Marjorie. 2007. “Health Disparities and Prevention: Racial/Ethnic Barriers to Flu Vaccinations.” Journal of Community Health 32(1): 520. DOI: 10.1007/s10900-006-9031-7CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Christensen, Darin, Dube, Oeindrila, Haushofer, Johannes, Siddiqi, Bilal, and Voors, Maarten. 2020. “Building Resilient Health Systems: Experimental Evidence from Sierra Leone and the 2014 Ebola Outbreak.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 27364. DOI 10.3386/w27364.Google Scholar
Citrin, Jack, and Stoker, Laura. 2018. “Political Trust in a Cynical Age.” Annual Review of Political Science 21:4970.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cuebiq, . 2020. Covid-19 Mobility Insights (https://www.cuebiq.com/visitation-insights-covid19/).Google Scholar
Cullen, Julie Berry, Turner, Nicholas, and Ebonya L. Washington. 2018. “Political Alignment, Attitudes toward Government and Tax Evasion.” National Bureau of Economic Research 24323. DOI 10.3386/w24323Google Scholar
Dong, E., Du, H., and Gardner, L.. 2020. “An Interactive Web-Based Dashboard to Track COVID-19 in Real Time.” Lancet Infectious Diseases 20(5): 533–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Druckman, James N., and Lupia, Arthur. 2016. “Preference Change in Competitive Political Environments.” Annual Review of Political Science 19:1331.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellinas, Antonis A., and Lamprianou, Iasonas. 2014. “Political Trust in Extremis.” Comparative Politics 46(2): 231–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fedor, Lauren, and Zhang, Christine. 2020. “Most Americans Trust Governors over Trump on Reopening, Poll Shows.” Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/f1a86b43-391e-42bf-8686-d74d433e336).Google Scholar
Freitag, Markus, and Bühlmann, Marc. 2009. “Crafting Trust: The Role of Political Institutions in a Comparative Perspective.” Comparative Political Studies 42(12): 1537–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gaure, Simen. 2013. “lfe: Linear Group Fixed Effects.” R Journal 5(2): 104–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, Alan, and Green, Donald. 1999. “Misperceptions about Perceptual Bias.” Annual Review of Political Science 2:189210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, Alan, and Huber, Gregory. 2009. “Partisanship and Economic Behavior: Do Partisan Differences in Economic Forecasts Predict Real Economic Behavior?American Political Science Review 103(3): 407–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodman-Bacon, Andrew. 2018. “Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 25018. DOI 10.3386/w25018CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grossman, Shelby, Phillips, Jonathan, and Rosenzweig, Leah R.. 2018. “Opportunistic Accountability: State–Society Bargaining Over Shared Interests.” Comparative Political Studies 51(8): 9791011.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamilton, Lawrence C., Hartter, Joel, and Saito, Kei. 2015. “Trust in Scientists on Climate Change and Vaccines.” Sage Open 5(3). https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244015602752CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hardin, Russell. 2002. Trust and Trustworthiness. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Hardin, Russell. 2003. “Trust in Government.” In Trust and Governance, ed. Braithwaite, Valerie and Levi, Margaret, 927. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Helliwell, John, Layard, Richard, Sachs, Jeffrey, and Neve, Jan-Emmanuel De. 2020. “World Happiness Report 2020.” New York: Sustainable Development Solutions Network.Google Scholar
Henderson, John A., and Theodoridis, Alexander G.. 2018. “Seeing Spots: Partisanship, Negativity and the Conditional Receipt of Campaign Advertisements.” Political Behavior 40:965–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J. 1998. “The Political Relevance of Political Trust.” American Political Science Review 92(4): 791808.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J., and Rudolph, Thomas J.. 2015. Why Washington Won’t Work: Polarization, Political Trust, and the Governing Crisis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto, Lelkes, Yphtach, Levendusky, Matthew, Malhotra, Neil, and Westwood, Sean J.. 2019. “The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States.” Annual Review of Political Science 22:129–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahan, Dan M., Peters, Ellen, Wittlin, Maggie, Slovic, Paul, Ouellette, Lisa Larrimore, Braman, Donald, and Mandel, Gregory. 2012. “The Polarizing Impact of Science Literacy and Numeracy on Perceived Climate Change Risks.” Nature Climate Change 2:732–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kastellec, Jonathan P., Lax, Jeffrey R., and Phillips, Justin H.. 2019. “Estimating State Public Opinion with Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification Using R.” Unpublished manuscript, Princeton University.Google Scholar
Keele, Luke. 2005. “The Authorities Really Do Matter: Party Control and Trust in Government.” Journal of Politics 67(3): 873–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klar, Samara. 2014. “Partisanship in a Social Setting.” American Journal of Political Science 58(3): 687704.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krupenkin, Masha. 2020. “Does Partisanship Affect Compliance with Government Recommendations?” Political Behavior 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-020-09613-6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gadarian, Kushner, Shana, Sara Wallace Goodman, and Pepinsky, Thomas B.. 2020. “Partisanship, Health Behavior, and Policy Attitudes in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic.” Working paper, March 27. Available at SSRN (https://ssrn.com/abstract=3562796) or (http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3562796).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Alicia. 2020. These States Have Implemented Stay-At-Home Orders. Here’s What that Means for You. CNN, April 7. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-which-states-stay-at-home-order-trnd/index.html).Google Scholar
Lerman, Amy E., Sadin, Meredith L., and Trachtman, Samuel. 2017. “Policy Uptake as Political Behavior: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act.” American Political Science Review 111(4): 755–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leifeld, Philip. 2013. “texreg: Conversion of Statistical Model Output in R to LATEX and HTML Tables.” Journal of Statistical Softward 55(8): 124.Google Scholar
Levi, Margaret, and Stoker, Laura. 2000. “Political Trust and Trustworthiness.” Annual Review of Political Science 3:475507.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liu, Christopher, and Stolle, Dietlind. 2017. “Social Capital, Civic Culture and Political Trust.” In Handbook on Political Trust, ed. Zmerli, Sonja and van der Meer, Tom W.G., 338352. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Long, Elisa F., Chen, M. Keith, and Rohla, Ryne. 2020. “Political Storms: Emergent Partisan Skepticism of Hurricane Risks.” Science Advances 6(37). doi:10.1126/sciadv.abb7906.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lupia, Arthur, and McCubbins, Mathew. 1998. The Democratic Dilemma: Can Citizens Learn What they Need to Know? New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Marien, Sofie, and Hooghe, Marc. 2011. “Does Political Trust Matter? An Empirical Investigation into the Relation between Political Trust and Support for Law Compliance.” European Journal of Political Research 50:267–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mason, Lilliana. 2015. ““I Disrespectfully Agree”: The Differential Effects of Partisan Sorting on Social and Issue Polarization.” American Journal of Political Science 59(1): 128–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCarty, Nolan, Poole, Keith T., and Rosenthal, Howard. 2016. Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
McCright, Aaron M., and Dunlap, Riley E.. 2011. “Cool Dudes: The Denial of Climate Change among Conservative White Males in the United States.” Global Environmental Change 21(4): 1163–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MIT Election Data and Science Lab. 2018. County Presidential Election Returns 2000–2016. [Data file] Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mutz, Diana C. 2002. “The Consequences of Cross-Cutting Networks for Political Participation.” American Journal of Political Science 46(4): 838–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nannestad, Peter. 2008. “What Have We Learned about Generalized Trust, If Anything?Annual Review of Political Science 11:413–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newport, Frank. 2020. “The Partisan Gap in Views of the Coronavirus.” Gallup, May 15 (https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/311087/partisan-gap-views-coronavirus.aspx).Google Scholar
Newton, Kenneth, and Zmerli, Sonja. 2011. “Three Forms of Trust and Their Association.” European Political Science Review 3(2): 169200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newton, Kenneth, Stolle, Dietlind, and Zmerli, Sonja. 2018. “Social and Political Trust.” In Oxford Handbook of Social and Political Trust, ed. Uslaner, Eric M., 3756. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2011. Democratic Deficit: Critical Citizens Revisited. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pew Research Center. 2014. “Political Polarization in the American Public.” Pew Research Study (https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/).Google Scholar
Peyton, Kyle. 2020. “Does Trust in Government Increase Support for Redistribution?American Political Science Review 114(2): 596602.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Putnam, Robert. 2000. Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert. 2001. “Social Capital: Measurement and Consequences.” Canadian Journal of Policy Research 2:4151.Google Scholar
Rainie, Lee, Ketter, Scott, and Perrin, Andrew. 2019. “Trust and Distrust in America.” Pew Research Study (https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/07/22/trust-and-distrust-in-america/).Google Scholar
Rambachan, Ashesh, and Roth, Jonathan. 2019. “An Honest Approach to Parallel Trends.” Harvard Working Paper. (https://scholar.harvard.edu/jroth/publications/Roth_JMP_Honest_Parallel_Trends).Google Scholar
Rothstein, Bo. 2011. The Quality of Government: Corruption, Social Trust, and Inequality in International Perspective. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rudolph, Thomas J. 2017. “Political Trust as a Heuristic.” In Handbook on Political Trust, ed. Zmerli, Sonja and van der Meer, Tom W.G.. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.Google Scholar
Salmon, Daniel A., Dudley, Matthew Z., Glanz, Jason M., and Omer, Saad B.. 2015. “Vaccine Hesitancy: Causes, Consequences, and a Call to Action.” Vaccine 33: D66D71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.09.035 and DOI:10.1016/j.amepre.2015.06.009CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scholz, John T. 2003. “Trust, Taxes, and Compliance.” In Trust and Governance, ed. Braithwaite, Valerie and Levi, Margaret, 135–66. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Scholz, John T., and Lubell, Mark. 1998. “Trust and Taxpaying: Testing the Heuristic Approach to Collective Action.” American Journal of Political Science 42(2): 398417.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shear, Michael, and Mervosh, Sarah. 2020. “Trump Encourages Protest Against Governors Who Have Imposed Virus Restrictions.” New York Times, April 17 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-governors.html).Google Scholar
Slotkin, Jason. 2020. “Protesters Swarm Michigan Capitol Amid Showdown Over Governor’s Emergency Powers.” NPR, May 1 (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/01/849017021/protestors-swarm-michigan-capitol-amid-showdown-over-governors-emergency-powers).Google Scholar
Suryadevara, Manika, Bonville, Cynthia A., Cibula, Donald A., Domachowske, Joseph B., and Suryadevara, Amar C.. 2019. “Associations between Population Based Voting Trends during the 2016 US Presidential Election and Adolescent Vaccination Rates.” Vaccine 37(9): 1160–67.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Tsai, Lily L., Morse, Benjamin S., and Blair, Robert A.. 2020. “Building Credibility and Cooperation in Low-Trust Settings: Persuasion and Source Accountability in Liberia During the 2014–2015 Ebola Crisis.” Comparative Political Studies 53(10-11): 15821618.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tyler, Tom R. 2003. “Trust and Democratic Governance.” In Trust and Governance, ed. Braithwaite, Valerie and Levi, Margaret, 269294. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
U.S. Congress Joint Economic Comittee. 2018. The Geography of Social Capital in America. [Data file] (https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/2018/4/the-geography-of-social-capital-in-america).Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Agriculture. 2020. Atlas of Rural and Small-Town America. Economic Research Service. (https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/atlas-of-rural-and-small-town-america).Google Scholar
Uslaner, Eric M. 2002. The Moral Foundations of Trust. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Uslaner, Eric M., and Brown, Mitchell. 2005. “Inequality, Trust, and Civic Engagement.” American Politics Research 33(6): 868–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Deth, Jan W. 2017. “Compliance, Trust and Norms of Citizenship.” In Handbook on Political Trust, ed. Zmerli, Sonja and van der Meer, Tom W.G.. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.Google Scholar
Williamson, Vanessa, Skocpol, Theda, and Coggin, John. 2011. “The Tea Party and the Remaking of Republican Conservatism.” Perspectives on Politics 9(1): 2543.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woolcock, Michael, and Narayan, Deepa. 2000. “Social Capital: Implications for Development Theory, Research, and Policy.” World Bank Research Observer 15(2): 225–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Goldstein and Wiedemann Dataset

Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Goldstein and Wiedemann supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Goldstein and Wiedemann supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 540 KB
2
Cited by

Send article to Kindle

To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Who Do You Trust? The Consequences of Partisanship and Trust for Public Responsiveness to COVID-19 Orders
Available formats
×

Send article to Dropbox

To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

Who Do You Trust? The Consequences of Partisanship and Trust for Public Responsiveness to COVID-19 Orders
Available formats
×

Send article to Google Drive

To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

Who Do You Trust? The Consequences of Partisanship and Trust for Public Responsiveness to COVID-19 Orders
Available formats
×
×

Reply to: Submit a response

Please enter your response.

Your details

Please enter a valid email address.

Conflicting interests

Do you have any conflicting interests? *