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Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections

Editor's Introduction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 September 2012

James E. Campbell*
Affiliation:
University at Buffalo, The State University of New York

Extract

This symposium presents 13 articles forecasting the 2012 US national elections. Included in this collection are the eight national and one state presidential vote forecasting models published in PS: Political Science & Politics during the 2008 elections along with three additional forecasts and one article offering a composite of the forecasts. Although the focus remains on the presidential contest, as in past years, several articles extend their scope to cover the congressional elections as well.

Type
Symposium: Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012 

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References

Brody, Richard, and Sigelman, Lee. 1983. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections: An Update and Extension.” Public Opinion Quarterly 47: 325–28.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2008. The American Campaign: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote. 2nd ed. College Station, TX: Texas A&M University Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2009. “The 2008 Campaign and the Forecasts Derailed.” PS: Political Science & Politics 42 (1): 1920.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2010. “The Exceptional Election of 2008: Performance, Values, and Crisis.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 40 (2): 225–46.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2011. “When the Fundamentals Are Trumped: The 2008 Wall Street Meltdown Election and Election Forecasting.” American Political Science Association, Seattle, WA.Google Scholar
Fair, Ray. 1978. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President.” Review of Economics and Statistics 60: 159–72.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1984. “Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Comparison of Naïve Models.” Political Behavior 6: 921.Google Scholar
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Sigelman, Lee. 1979. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections.” Public Opinion Quarterly 43: 532–34.Google Scholar