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Predicting the community prevalence of schistosomiasis mansoni from the prevalence among 7- to 14-year-olds

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 January 2001

L. C. RODRIGUES ,
J. G. WHEELER ,
R. SHIER ,
H. L. GUERRA ,
F. PIMENTA  and
M. F. F. LIMA e COSTA
L. C. RODRIGUES
Affiliation:
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK
J. G. WHEELER
Affiliation:
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK
R. SHIER
Affiliation:
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK
H. L. GUERRA
Affiliation:
Centro de Pesquisa René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
M. F. F. LIMA e COSTA
Affiliation:
Centro de Pesquisa René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil Departamento de Medicina Preventiva e Social, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
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Abstract

The World Health Organization suggested that the prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni among 7- to 14-year-olds be used to guide treatment strategies in endemic areas. This study explores how well the prevalence in that age group predicted the overall prevalence in the community in data from stool examinations (Kato–Katz method) from 180000 people in 3 municipalities in Brazil in 1984 and 1985. The median prevalence was higher in 1984, before community treatment was introduced. There was a strong relationship between the prevalence among 7- to 14-year-olds and the overall prevalence in the community. We present sensitivities and positive predictive values for the use of prevalence in the indicator group to select communities for mass treatment as recommended by WHO. For a range of assumptions sensitivity and positive predictive value were never both above 80%. We suggest that the estimates of validity presented in this paper inform future evaluations of strategies for S. mansoni control.

Keywords

schistosomiasisSchistosoma mansonicommunity treatmentvaliditysensitivityspecificity
Type
Research Article
Information
Parasitology , Volume 121 , Issue 5 , November 2000 , pp. 507 - 512
Copyright
2000 Cambridge University Press

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