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USE OF THE PAR(p) MODEL IN THE STOCHASTIC DUAL DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING OPTIMIZATION SCHEME USED IN THE OPERATION PLANNING OF THE BRAZILIAN HYDROPOWER SYSTEM

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 December 2005

M. E. P. Maceira  and
J. M. Damázio
M. E. P. Maceira
Affiliation:
Electric Power Research Center, CEPEL, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and, Rio de Janeiro State University, UERJ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, E-mail: elvira@cepel.br; damazio@cepel.br
J. M. Damázio
Affiliation:
Electric Power Research Center, CEPEL, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and, Rio de Janeiro State University, UERJ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, E-mail: elvira@cepel.br; damazio@cepel.br
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Abstract

In September 2000, the Brazilian system dispatch and spot prices were calculated twice, using different inflow forecasts for that month, as in the last 5 days of August the inflows to the reservoirs in the South and Southeast regions changed 200%. The first run used a smaller forecasted energy inflow and the second used a higher energy inflow. Contrary to expectations, the spot price in the second run, with the higher energy inflow, was higher than the one found in the first run. This paper describes the problem, presents the special features of the PAR(p) model that allow the described behavior, and shows the solution taken to avoid the problem.

Type
Research Article
Information
Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences , Volume 20 , Issue 1 , January 2006 , pp. 143 - 156
Copyright
© 2006 Cambridge University Press

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References

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