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5 - Electoral Integrity, Ethnic Affinity, and Religious Revival in Nigeria’s Party Turnover

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 January 2019

A. Carl LeVan
Affiliation:
American University, Washington DC
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Summary

This chapter tests the influence of religious and ethnic identity on voting. I explain Nigeria’s electoral law that promotes ethno-regional coalition building. I then statistical test three hypotheses, using survey data. An “electoral integrity” hypothesis predicts that voters with positive perceptions of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) were more likely to vote for the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan. An “ethnic affinity” hypothesis predicts that Hausa and Fulani are more likely to vote for Buhari, a Muslim with Fulani heritage. A “religious referendum” hypothesis predicts that Muslim voters were more likely to vote for Buhari. Statistical tests confirm each hypothesis, first at the bivariate level and then with probit models that control for potentially intervening conditions. My findings are consistent with the research documenting that even where Africans vote based on issues or policy evaluations, ethnicity still has an appeal. The correlation between religion and voting, however, is worrisome, especially in light of the recent politicization of religious institutions. Therefore, unlike the hopeful message in the previous chapters about Nigerians expressing an interest in evaluating policy performance, this chapter offers a warning. Religion’s powerful allure means that new electoral reforms may be necessary to weaken the political salience of faith.
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Contemporary Nigerian Politics
Competition in a Time of Transition and Terror
, pp. 148 - 178
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2019

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