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12 - Validation of Models Used by Banks to Estimate Their Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 March 2023

David Lynch
Affiliation:
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Iftekhar Hasan
Affiliation:
Fordham University Graduate Schools of Business
Akhtar Siddique
Affiliation:
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
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Summary

This chapter focuses on potential issues bank examiners may face while reviewing the quality of a bank’s model risk management practices and validating modeling methodologies used to estimate allowance for loan and lease losses (henceforth ALLL). It discusses both leading and lagging practices in modeling and validating ALLL and examines upcoming challenges in implementing the new standards for allowance computations. In the context of validating ALLL methodologies under the new accounting standards, the author discusses the challenges in forecasting payoffs on existing credit card balances, issues relating to forecasting the economy and long-term losses, issues relating to the application of discounting in ALLL computations etc.

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