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11 - A Manual Novelty-Narrative Scapegoat Analysis

from PART III - EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR THE NOVELTY-NARRATIVE HYPOTHESIS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 September 2021

Nicholas Mangee
Affiliation:
Georgia Southern University
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Summary

This chapter applies a manual textual analysis of scapegoat effects in the stock market under the Novelty–Narrative Hypothesis. Information contained in Bloomberg News daily market wrap reports proxy for the story-weights investors place on observable and unobservable micro and macro fundamentals. Findings of dramatic variation in the narrative-based attention investors place across particular fundamentals suggests instability, in both frequency and magnitude, characterizing their forecasting strategies of future stock market outcomes. Time-varying properties of the narratives are found to be connected to shifts in the underlying variables particularly level- and gap-effects. Evidence suggests that adding narrative dynamics as proxied by scapegoat effects to benchmark macro-finance models improves fundamentals' ability to explain stock price fluctuations under uncertainty. Measures of model fit and forecasting accuracy provide the most empirical support for varying-coefficient scapegoat models based on micro and macro novel events and narrative effects, or attention-weights, attached to fundamentals.

Type
Chapter
Information
How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market
Black Swans, Animal Spirits and Scapegoats
, pp. 265 - 294
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2021

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