COIN-HOARDS AND MINT-OUTPUT

Roman coin-hoards of a given date tend to show chronological similarities, which can be extremely close. No records of Roman mint-output survive. But in a later case where a large hoard can be compared with year-by-year mint records, the two chronological profiles are very similar. Even without this specific example, close resemblances between the chronology of Roman hoards would be very difficult to explain if the hoards did not reflect mint-output.

These similarities are illustrated in figs. 8.1–8.4. The best test is year-by-year analysis based on large samples. The first diagram compares year-totals for the period AD 41–71 in the two largest hoards of Egyptian tetradrachms listed by Milne. Hoard 3 ends in AD 165, and Hoard 6 in 191. Milne's totals of dated coins are 4,344 and 2,243 coins; 3,548 and 1,700 belong to the period shown here. Figure 8.1 shows that the annual percentages are extremely close (r2 = 0.983). Both hoards clearly illustrate the enormous surge in tetradrachm output in the last years of Nero.

The second diagram comes from the reign of Trajan. Trajan's coinage, like most of the central coinage of our period, is not dated by year, but is divided into six chronological segments. The hoards are the gigantic Reka Devnia hoard from Moesia ending in AD 251/3, and the via Braccianese hoard from outside Rome which ends in 230. The reported coin-samples for the reign of Trajan are 5,216 and 1,051.