The estimation procedures and annual national income series have been presented. Now I turn to a discussion of results. The pattern of economic growth and structural change during the late tsarist era is the subject of this chapter. In the following two chapters, this pattern will be placed in perspective by means of comparisons with the major industrialized countries prior to War War I and the Soviet Union during the plan era.

The most important question to be addressed in this and the following two chapters is the success of the Russian economy during the late tsarist era. In this study, “success” can be measured only in a restricted manner by concentrating on economic growth and the structural changes that accompany growth, and answers can be provided only through comparisons with the experiences of other countries. Other success indicators – efficiency, equity, stability – will be dealt with only in passing or not at all.

In this chapter, our focus is narrow and is restricted to the Russian data. Several issues are addressed that have occupied the literature on the economic history of tsarist Russia. The most important of these is the evaluation of the famous thesis of Alexander Gerschenkron that Russian economic development was Asian in character. By “Asian”, Gerschenkron meant economic growth forced by the state rather than spawned by “natural” economic forces.