Few in the West today claim that Russia has successfully westernized, or is on the brink of doing so, despite occasional summons to rekindle the dream of 1991. Experts likewise are no longer optimistic that Muscovite modernization will allow the federation to overtake the developed West, as some did during the Soviet era, even though Russia's economic minister predicts that the federation will have the globe's fifth largest GDP (gross domestic product) by 2020. This skepticism reflects the reality of failed transition, the conviction that democratic free enterprise may be best, and more subtly a recognition that the deficiencies of post–Soviet Muscovy could be cumulative.

The risks arising from Russia's heritage of neglect are most apparent in its ailing human capital. The acumen, skill, knowledge, proficiency, adaptability, cooperativeness, longevity and health of its labor force and leadership after decades of Soviet and postcommunist abuse seem impaired, depressing productivity and the quality of life. Human capital productivity deteriorated markedly under Boris Yeltsin, with only a modest rebound thereafter. The federation's educational and health care systems are in shambles, the environment continues to fester, and mortality rates are rising. Moscow has the power to effectuate constructive change but may lack the resolve.

Writing in 2005, the American demographer Nicholas Eberstadt found reason to speak of Russia as The Sick Man of Europe, contending that the country was in “the grip of a steadily tightening mesh of serious demographic problems, for which the term ‘crisis’ is no overstatement.”