The task of concluding a history with a consideration of the immediate past carries certain risks. Among them are the temptation to offer predictions that will later prove to have been wrong and the danger that in offering an account of the past ten years or so the writers will miss what later turns out to have been significant and focus instead on events that were not. In the case of Oman in the twenty-first century, however, it is reasonable to imagine that Oman's participation in events associated with the ‘war on terror’, the ‘Arab Spring’ (both of them terms that we will wish to question and perhaps replace) and the crisis over Iran and the threat of regional nuclear proliferation will still be of interest to readers for some time to come. We therefore turn to these events as the principal topics for discussion in this final chapter, before concluding it with a retrospective consideration of how the history we have set out across the book as a whole might help us understand the situation of Oman in the second decade of the twenty-first century.

One additional and crucial issue facing Oman at this juncture is, of course, the future direction of political leadership. The Basic Statute of the State outlines a process for the appointment of a new Sultan on the death of the incumbent. The Ruling Council meets to agree on a successor, and if they cannot reach agreement, the Defence Council then consults instructions prepared by the present Sultan. This arrangement does not address, however, any questions as to the scope and nature of future political leadership. Most Omanis have known no ruler other than Sultan Qaboos. His retention of formal responsibility for multiple aspects of government has almost certainly been possible only because of an exceptional degree of popular and political consensus over his legitimacy. It is unlikely that any successor will automatically inherit such strong support. Some significant changes in the roles and responsibilities of the Sultan and other leading political figures may therefore take place following the death of Sultan Qaboos.