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4 - Scale

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 May 2013

Andrew C. Harvey
Affiliation:
University of Cambridge
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Summary

An established feature of asset returns is that they exhibit volatility clustering. Another stylized fact about returns is that their distributions typically have heavy tails. Although the Gaussian GARCH structure induces excess kurtosis in the returns, it is not usually enough to match the data. As a result, it is now customary to assume that returns have a conditional Student's tv distribution. The GARCH-t model, which was originally proposed by Bollerslev (1987), is widely used in empirical work and as a benchmark for other models.

The t distribution in GARCH-t is employed in the predictive distribution of returns and used as the basis for maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters, but it is not acknowledged in the design of the equation for the conditional variance. The specification of the conditional variance as a linear combination of squared observations is taken for granted, but the consequences are that it responds too much to extreme observations, and the effect is slow to dissipate. These features of GARCH are well-known, and the consequences for testing and forecasting have been explored in a number of papers; see, for example, Franses, van Dijk and Lucas (2004). Other researchers, such as Sakata and White (1998) and Muler and Yohai (2008), have been prompted to develop procedures for robustification; see also Gregory and Reeves (2010).

Type
Chapter
Information
Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails
With Applications to Financial and Economic Time Series
, pp. 97 - 148
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2013

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  • Scale
  • Andrew C. Harvey, University of Cambridge
  • Book: Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails
  • Online publication: 05 May 2013
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139540933.005
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  • Scale
  • Andrew C. Harvey, University of Cambridge
  • Book: Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails
  • Online publication: 05 May 2013
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139540933.005
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Scale
  • Andrew C. Harvey, University of Cambridge
  • Book: Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails
  • Online publication: 05 May 2013
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139540933.005
Available formats
×