Synopsis

Technological changes since the onset of the Industrial Revolution are summarized. The concept of technology clusters, i.e., a set of interrelated technological, infrastructural, and organizational innovations driving output and productivity growth during particular periods of time is used to explain these changes. Four historical technology clusters are identified, with a prospective fifth, emerging one. The most salient characteristics of each cluster are discussed with illustrative examples. The chapter concludes with a discussion of quantitative and statistical approaches that corroborate the concept of technology clusters.

A Long View of Technology Development: The Last 200 Years

This section is a synoptic tour d'horizon of 200 years of technological change. It provides a historical overview and identifies distinct periods of technological change in order to set the stage for more detailed discussions in Part II of individual technological changes and their global environmental change implications. Our principal organizing concept is that of technology “families” or “clusters”. A technology cluster is a set of interrelated technological and organizational innovations whose pervasive adoption drives a particular period of economic growth, productivity increases, industrialization, trade, and associated structural changes.

Technology clusters do not follow one after the other in a rigid temporal sequence. Various clusters coexist in any given period, although the relative importance of each keeps shifting. Older technological and infrastructural vintages coexist with the dominant technology cluster. In some cases older clusters are perpetuated by government policy even after more modern technologies are well established in other parts of the international economy.