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Population development as a driver of coastal risk: Current trends and future pathways
- Lena Reimann, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Lars E. Honsel
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- Journal:
- Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures / Volume 1 / 2023
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 31 January 2023, e14
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- Article
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Coastal areas are subject to hazards that can result in severe impacts due to the high concentration of people and assets in exposed locations. While climate-induced sea-level rise will exacerbate these hazards in the course of the 21st century, future dynamics in socioeconomic development will play an important role in driving impacts – as well as adaptation responses – in particular in countries with rapid population growth in low-lying coastal areas. Here, we synthesize the current state of knowledge related to current and future population development in coastal locations and the underlying trends in socioeconomic development affecting coastal impacts at continental to global scales. Currently, 2.15 billion people live in the near-coastal zone and 898 million in the low-elevation coastal zone globally. These numbers could increase to 2.9 billion and 1.2 billion, respectively, depending on the socioeconomic scenario (i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP]) considered. Nevertheless, although these numbers indicate a rapid increase in exposure of population and assets to coastal hazards, they bear limited information about the actual impacts as they do not include information on the vulnerability of coastal population. Based on these insights, we stress the need to account for dynamics in socioeconomic development in coastal risk assessments, including exposure as well as vulnerability, and additionally exploring potential feedbacks due to adaptation responses and migration decisions. Last, we propose action points for future work that can inform long-term coastal planning for managing coastal risks.
Contributors
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- By Luis G. Acevedo, Schahram Akbarian, Ioanna Andreou, Krishnarao Appasani, Raghu K. Appasani, Julia Arand, David M. Ashley, Alexander R. Ball, Yehudit Bergman, Marina Bibikova, Angela Bithell, Francesca Bonafè, Eric E. Bouhassira, Victoria L. Boyd, Noel J. Buckley, Lars Olov Bygren, Claudio M. Caldarera, Gemma Carvill, James W. F. Catto, Sarah Derks, Ewa Dudziec, Jeffrey D. Falk, Jian-Bing Fan, Joseph M. Fernandez, David E. Fisher, Emanuela Fiumana, Tamara B. Franklin, Fei Gao, Arkadiusz Gertych, Emanuele Giordano, David Goldman, Markus Grammel, Carlo Guarnieri, Kevin L. Gunderson, Victoria (Fatemeh) G. Haghighi, Xu Han, Yong-Mahn Han, Howard C. Hang, Aditi Hazra, Laura B.K. Herzing, Norbert Hochstein, Robin Holliday, Dorothee Honsel, Mary A. Jelinek, Guanyu Ji, Yan Jiang, Atsushi Kaneda, Richard A. Katz, Hyemin Kim, Richard Kroon, Tapas K. Kundu, Benoit Labonté, Daeyoup Lee, Konstantin Lepikhov, Andrea Linnemann-Florl, Dirk Loeffert, Dylan Maixner, Isabelle M. Mansuy, Andreas Missel, D. V. Mohankrishna, Joana Carvalho Moreira de Mello, Paolo G. Morselli, Rituparna Mukhopadhyay, Claudio Muscari, Takashi Nagano, Frank Narz, Shuji Ogino, Carlo M. Oranges, Shari Orlanski, Alice Pasini, Ralf Peist, Lygia V. Pereira, Andrey Poleshko, Claire Rougeulle, Thea Rütjes, Ana Sanz, Benjamin G. Schroeder, Gerald Schock, Kornel Schuebel, B. Ruthrotha Selvi, Hogyu Seo, Natalia Shalginskikh, Andrew Sharp, Jun S. Song, Lennart Suckau, Azim Surani, Jian Tajbakhsh, Gustavo Turecki, Céline Vallot, Manon van Engeland, Jörn Walter, Nicholas C. Wong, Mark Wossidlo, Honglong Wu, Yurong Xin, Zhixiang Yan, Yu-Ying Yang, Mingzhi Ye, Kyoko Yokomori, Sephorah Zaman, Weihua Zeng, Gerald Zon
- Edited by Krishnarao Appasani
- Foreword by Azim Surani, University of Cambridge
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- Book:
- Epigenomics
- Published online:
- 05 August 2012
- Print publication:
- 02 August 2012, pp x-xxiv
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