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7 - Public policy options
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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- Climate Change: A Wicked Problem
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Summary
Public policy measures can do much to accelerate deployment of carbon mitigation measures, and there are basically three options. One approach is to put a price on emissions, which can be done through a cap-and-trade system or an outright tax. The approach is motivated by the following premise: if the goal is to put a large dent in GHG emissions, a price tag must be put on the emissions. A second approach is to mandate reductions through the regulatory process. Forms of government regulation could include corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for automotive transportation, renewable portfolio standards (RPS) for power production, and efficiency standards for buildings and home appliances. The third approach is to provide financial incentives to ease the cost of mitigation. Incentives can be provided as outright grants, tax credits for producing carbon-free energy, or preferential treatment for sale of the energy.
In each of the three approaches, a critical issue, both politically and economically, is cost management. If costs are too high, economic growth is stifled; if they are too low, emission reductions and innovation are stifled.
Cap-and-trade
Lawmakers are generally averse to increasing taxes. Hence, if they believe that a price should be placed on carbon emissions, they're inclined to favor a cap-and-trade system, even though, like a tax, the cost of implementation is ultimately borne by the consumer. In principle, the system works as follows. Governments impose caps (limits) on GHG emissions from large central sources such as power plants, oil refineries, natural gas producers, and manufacturers of energy-intensive products such as concrete, steel, and glass. Initially, the caps are high to allow time for adjustment but are gradually reduced until atmospheric GHG concentrations drop to desired levels. Commensurate with a prescribed cap, permits (allowances) are granted and/or auctioned to the emitting entities, with one permit corresponding to a unit of annual emissions such as 1 t-CO2eq.
Whether auctioned or granted, permits are traded on a market, which can be regional, national, or international. Permits are sold by those able to economically reduce emissions below their cap and bought by those finding such purchases to be a more cost-effective approach to compliance.
Appendix D - Environmental time scales and inertia
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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Summary
Environmental effects can be differentiated in terms of time scales – also called time constants. Pursuant to an input that alters the equilibrium of a system, a time scale provides an approximate measure of how long it takes for the input to achieve a significant portion (e.g., 67%) of its final effect and hence to reach a new equilibrium. The larger the time scale, the larger the inertia of the system.
Consider the infamous fogs that plagued London from the mid-1700s to the mid-1900s. They were not a natural phenomenon, but were anthropogenic and caused by the use of coal for everything from space heating in homes and businesses to, in the twentieth century, generation of electric power. During cold and still winter days, the soot and sulfur-laden gases produced by burning coal would hover over the city, reducing visibility to near zero and inducing serious illness and death among those with respiratory problems. Created by several million sources of coal combustion, the last London fog in 1952 resulted in 4,000 deaths. The problem could no longer be ignored. In 1956, Parliament passed a clean air act prohibiting coal combustion in the homes and businesses of England's largest cities, and the problem, if not eliminated, was significantly alleviated within a few years. This example illustrates an environmental problem for which the causal agents were well understood, the scope was local, there was no uncertainty concerning the nature and seriousness of the consequences, and remedies could be quickly implemented.
The ozone hole in the Earth's stratosphere provides a more recent example, one that's global in scope and for which time scales associated with remediation are much longer. Stratospheric ozone absorbs much of the ultraviolet (UV) components of solar radiation. With depletion of the ozone, more of the UV reaches the Earth's surface, with adverse effects on human health and the environment. The effects could not be ignored, and chemical reactions with the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used in vapor-compression refrigeration and air-conditioning systems were determined to be the culprit.
Recognition of the problem spurred global cooperation in obtaining a solution, highlighted in 1987 by the Montreal Protocol, which committed the world's industrial nations to 50% and 85% reductions in CFC production by 2005 and 2007, respectively.
Contents
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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3 - Greenhouse gases
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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Summary
The atmosphere is our constant companion. It envelops us 24/7, providing life-sustaining oxygen. In school we learned that, excluding water vapor, nitrogen and oxygen comprise about 98% of the atmosphere's dry air, with argon and carbon dioxide providing much of the remainder. In urban and industrial surroundings, we may also sense the intrusion of atmospheric pollutants such as ozone and sulfur dioxide. In addressing global warming, we turn our attention to atmospheric constituents that qualify as greenhouse gases (GHGs).
The atmospheric concentration of some GHGs is determined by both natural and anthropogenic effects. Hence, the gases would still exist if humans did not inhabit the planet. Water vapor (H2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are the biggest contributors to the Earth's natural greenhouse effect, with smaller roles played by methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). But due to human activities, the atmospheric concentrations of these species are increasing, providing an anthropogenic component to the greenhouse effect. The effect is amplified by the existence of other, strictly anthropogenic GHGs that number in the hundreds (Ramaswamy et al., 2001; Stine and Sturges, 2007).
Distinguishing features
Not all GHGs contribute to global warming in the same way. For one thing, spectral absorption bands corresponding to discrete regions of the electromagnetic spectrum in which the gases absorb terrestrial radiation differ according to their strength and wavelengths. For example, methane molecules absorb terrestrial radiation at different wavelengths and more strongly than carbon dioxide molecules. Also, once released to the atmosphere, gases differ according to the amount of time they remain in the atmosphere.
Distinguishing features of five comparatively long-lived and well-mixed GHGs that account for about 96% of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect are provided in Table 3.1, along with the cumulative effect of fifteen minor, halogenated gases that account for much of the remaining 4%. Containing chlorine, fluorine, and/or bromine, halogens are man-made chemicals used in many industrial processes and commercial products such as refrigerants, aerosols, and foaming agents. Examples include the families of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). Halogens containing chlorine or bromine contribute to another environmental problem, namely depletion of stratospheric ozone. While the atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O are influenced by both natural and anthropogenic effects, the halogens are strictly anthropogenic.
Index
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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Appendix E - Coal-fired power plants: operating conditions and costs of carbon capture and sequestration
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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Basic elements of a complete end-to-end CCS system include CO2 capture and compression, transport from the source to a repository, and monitoring the status of the sequestered CO2 over time. Each element contributes to the total cost of CCS. Capture and compression costs increase with decreasing concentration and pressure of CO2 in the gas stream from which it is extracted, while transport costs increase with increasing distance from the source to the storage site. Costs of monitoring the sequestered CO2 are relatively small.
The cost of carbon capture for coal-fired power plants depends on the type of power plant, its efficiency, and whether the carbon is captured by pre- or post-combustion processes. To understand these options, it's helpful to first examine the makeup of a conventional plant. Consider the system shown in Figure E.1.
Pulverized coal (PC) and air enter the boiler, where the coal is burned to produce high-temperature products of combustion (POC). As the POC pass over tubes within the boiler (the steam generator), heat is transferred to pressurized water flowing through the tubes, converting it to steam. The steam is then routed through a set of steam turbines, where work is done on the turbine blades, enabling the turbine shaft to do work on an electric generator. To reduce losses in transmission by the grid, the voltage is increased by a transformer before the electricity enters the grid. The turbine has multiple stages to accommodate reheating in the boiler and to maximize the efficiency with which work is done by the steam. After leaving the last turbine stage, the steam is converted to water in a condenser and passed through a series of feedwater heaters and pumps before returning to the boiler to repeat the process.
11 - A way forward
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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“Climate change is occurring, is very likely caused primarily by human activities, and poses significant risks to humans and the environment.” This statement was made in a report prepared by the National Research Council (NRC, 2011), which is an agent of the U.S. National Academies of Science and Engineering and the Institute of Medicine. The view is shared by governmental science agencies across the world, as well as by an overwhelming majority of the global scientific community. We know that atmospheric GHG concentrations are rising, that the gases contribute to warming, and that warming is enhanced by feedback effects. We also know that atmosphere and ocean temperatures are rising, along with sea levels, as Arctic sea ice and glaciers continue to melt. The trends are due to the use of fossil fuels, and we know they will continue, even if atmospheric GHG concentrations were to remain at today's levels. And we are aware of the consequences, such as the impact of rising sea levels on low-lying coastal regions and the increased frequency of extreme weather events.
Yes, there are gaps in the scientific knowledge base. They've been addressed in previous chapters and are acknowledged in the NRC report. But the science underpinning a human impact on climate change is strong and getting stronger with each new study. This part of the debate is all but over. Most uncertainties are associated with partitioning of energy between the Earth's atmosphere and oceans and with understanding the consequences of climate change. Where and to what extent will the frequency and intensity of major storms increase; where will chronic drought and desertification be most pronounced; where and to what extent will ecosystems, biodiversity and agricultural production be adversely affected; and what will be the scope of attendant diasporas? It is not acceptable to focus on these uncertainties and to simply call for more research without addressing root causes of global warming and preparing to deal with the adverse effects of climate change. Because the potential consequences of global warming are profound, the prudent and morally responsible approach is to take action now. The NRC report states unequivocally that “uncertainty is not a reason for inaction.”
8 - The politics of global warming: a history lesson and future prospects
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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Consider the atmosphere from any point on the Earth's surface. Move east, west, north, or south; the atmosphere has no boundaries. If a CO2 molecule is discharged from a point source in the United States, it can move in any direction, and one year hence it could be over India, Brazil, or anywhere else in the world. Likewise, GHG emissions in India and other nations make their way to the United States and to every other nation. All nations contribute to GHG emissions, some more than others, and all nations are recipients of the emissions. Geographically, the atmosphere is nondiscriminatory.
To the extent that GHG emissions contribute to global warming and, in turn, warming contributes to climate change, inherent problems are not local, regional, or national. They are transnational. The problems cannot be solved by any one nation – although some can contribute more than others – but must be addressed by collaboration among all nations. Even the smallest of nations that contribute little to GHG emissions must be involved, for they may well be among those most adversely impacted by climate change and least able to adapt.
Whether the problem is perceived as potential or omnipresent, the fact that it is international is indisputable. And the international community has been paying attention. In this chapter, we will examine efforts to address the problem and the mine fields that have impeded substantive progress. As applied to climate change, the chapter is a history lesson in geopolitics, highlighting how difficult it is to achieve consensus among nations of widely disparate cultures and economic conditions.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
International agreements have long been used to address environmental issues for segments of the planet as diverse as the atmosphere, the open seas, and Antarctica. A relatively recent agreement is the Montreal Protocol of 1987, which calls for protection of the stratosphere's ozone layer through elimination of industrial chemicals termed chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs).
Although interest in global warming can be traced to the late nineteenth century (Weart, 2003), it was not until 1988 that the issue began to receive serious attention.
Appendix A - Units and conversion factors
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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5 - Consequences of global warming
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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Summary
The foregoing results provide strong evidence that global warming is real and attributable in no small measure to human activities, a conclusion strengthened by other indicators that are updated annually (Blunden and Arndt, 2014; EPA, 2014b). But why should we be concerned? What is the impact of warming? How will it affect the natural environment? The built environment? Food production? Human health and security? And, although we've been careful to differentiate between climate and weather, could warming affect the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events?
The ramifications of global climate change (GCC) and their likelihood have been discussed extensively (IPCC, 2007d, 2014a; Cullen, 2010). Cullen extrapolates past and current warming trends into a prediction of circa-2050 climate. Droughts are projected to be more severe in some regions and floods in others. Depletion of ground water and food sources is predicted, as is deterioration of infrastructure in low-lying regions vulnerable to rising sea levels and storm surges of growing frequency and intensity. And the world would also have to contend with growing migrations of climate refugees.
The potential effects on ecological and socioeconomic systems are numerous and may be positive or negative, with significant differences from one region of the globe to another. Let's begin with the region in which GCC and its ramifications are most evident.
The Arctic: canary in a mine shaft
The Arctic occupies the region north of the Arctic Circle and includes northern portions of eight nations – Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States (Alaska) – as well as the Arctic Ocean. Because warming is occurring much faster in the Arctic than in any other region of the world, it has become the proverbial canary in the mine shaft, a testimonial to the reality of global warming.
Since the 1950s, Arctic temperatures have increased at a rate more than twice the global average. Using Alaska as an example, its temperature increased by about 2°C, more than twice that of the lower forty-eight states. Were the trend to continue, an estimate of 2°C for the twenty-first-century rise in the global average temperature would translate to a 4°C increase for the Arctic.
Dedication
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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Abbreviations
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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Appendix B - Fossil fuels
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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10 - The ethics of climate change
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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By now, you would probably agree that the issue of climate change is wrapped in science, technology, economics, and politics. But is there yet another dimension? Many would say “yes,” maintaining the existence of a moral imperative. To address climate change from such a perspective, we'll examine some of the philosophical pillars of ethics, as well as foundations of ethical behavior derived from religious traditions. From both philosophical and theological perspectives, how do ethical considerations inform the debate on climate change?
Ethics involves reflection on human behavior and how to channel it in appropriate ways. A central question involves life and how it should be lived. Another involves the nature of good and standards by which an action is judged good or not. Such questions have been addressed by philosophers for millennia in attempts to delineate between right and wrong. But in applying these standards, difficulties often arise because many issues are multifaceted, complex, and nuanced.
Ethical dimensions of climate change
Technology has allowed humans to conquer space and time. Modern transportation systems provide movement of goods and people from one location to any other; modern communication systems enable ideas and knowledge to flow almost instantaneously across the world. Globalization has had an enormous impact on raising living standards throughout the world. But underpinning it all has been rising energy consumption, particularly from fossil fuels, and attendant environmental degradation. Some environmental damage is local, such as mining coal by mountaintop removal, or regional, such as acid rain. And most degradation is manifested over relatively short time scales, from immediate to months or years. But climate change is global and manifested over decades to millennia. Today's GHG emissions have consequences for all, anywhere on Earth, and for the unborn as well as the living. When I burn one gallon of gasoline, I discharge almost 9 kg-CO2 to the atmosphere, putting the entire planet at greater risk to the effects of climate change. When the U.S. transportation sector consumes 215 billion gallons of fuel, as it did in 2012 (Davis et al., 2014), it adds about 2 Gt-CO2 to the atmosphere, with Americans enjoying the benefits of consumption while calling upon the world to share the burdens.
Frontmatter
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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1 - Energy, economics, and climate change
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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We can't engage in a serious examination of climate change without considering its strong ties to energy. More than any other factor, anthropogenic contributions to climate depend on how energy is produced and used.
Over his illustrious career, Richard Smalley (1943–2005), a Nobel Laureate and pioneer in the field of nanoscience and technology, was invited to give many lectures on his work. However, in the last few years of his life, he felt compelled to use the lectures as a vehicle for sharing his concerns about the world's energy future. In one of his slides he presented his views on humanity's top ten problems of the next fifty years. His list included food, water, the environment, poverty, war, disease, education, democracy, and population. While we might attach different weights to the significance of each concern, we would probably agree that all are to be taken seriously. However, for Smalley, there was no equivocation on what belonged at the top of the list. Meeting the world's energy needs was paramount and linked, to varying degree, with the other nine.
Energy: an indispensable resource
It would be difficult to overstate the importance of energy to the well-being of humankind. It is the resource that sustains all life and economic activity. It enables the production and distribution of all manner of goods and services, as well as human mobility on the ground and in the air. It is absolutely essential to achieving an acceptable standard of living, and in the words of Paul Roberts (2004, p. 6), “Access to energy has emerged as the overwhelming imperative of the twenty-first century.”
While preindustrial societies functioned entirely on energy derived from the Sun, the Industrial Revolution marked a transition to the use of fossil fuels and by the mid-twentieth century to nuclear energy. It is difficult to appreciate the enormity of today's global energy supply chain. In 2013, humankind consumed approximately 505 quadrillion (505,000 trillion) British thermal units (Btu) of energy, or simply 505 quads (BP, 2014a). The amount is staggering, and trillions of dollars are spent annually to produce and distribute this energy.
Appendix C - Anthropogenic sources of natural gas and methane
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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In situ, natural gas is a mixture consisting largely of methane, CH4 (70–90% by volume); smaller amounts of ethane, C2H6, propane, C3H8, butane, C4H10, pentane, C5H12, and/or hexane, C6H14 (0–20%); carbon dioxide, CO2 (0–8%); and trace amounts of other gases such as hydrogen sulfide, H2S. As the pressure and temperature of the gas decrease during extraction from a well, pentane and hexane condense to their liquid states and separate from the gas. At the wellhead, CO2 is removed, as is H2S, which is both toxic and corrosive. The remaining gas can then be compressed and routed to a pipeline, or it can be liquefied at a temperature of –162 °C (– 260°F)to increase its energy content per unit volume, facilitating transport as liquefied natural gas (LNG).
As late as 2006, conventional wisdom was that U.S. production of natural gas was in decline, with increasing imports needed to meet demand. But perceptions began to change with the discovery and exploitation of large gas-bearing shales, beginning with the Barnett Shale in Northeast Texas. Just two years later, with the discovery of the Marcellus Shale extending southwest from upstate New York through Appalachia, as well as the Haynesville (Louisiana), Fayetteville (Arkansas), Woodford-Arkoma (Arkansas and Oklahoma), and Bakken (North Dakota and Montana) shales, there was growing belief that the nation would soon be awash in natural gas and its reserves-to-production ratio would exceed 100 years (Krauss, 2008a, 2008b).
Conventional gas is extracted primarily from porous sandstone lying below impermeable cap rock. The large permeability of the sandstone makes it easy to extract the gas once a well has been drilled. That's not the case for unconventional gas found in coal seams, tight sands, and shale rock. The low permeability of these formations limits gas production by conventional means.
Shale is a soft, fine-grained rock formed from mud deposits in shallow seas some 400 million years ago. Although shale formations are buried up to 4,000 meters below ground and gas is trapped within the shale, advanced recovery techniques have made production economically viable. A well can be drilled to the requisite depth and extended horizontally for thousands of meters, thereby greatly expanding the size of a gas field accessible to a single well.
2 - The Earth's climate system
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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The Earth's climate system depends on many factors, and until the nineteenth century all of them were natural. But over the last two centuries exponential growth in human population and consumption has introduced an anthropogenic factor. How significant are anthropogenic effects? Can they alter the natural system, and if so, in what ways? To address these questions, we will consider the physical origins of climate change in Chapters 2 through 4. If you find some of the material challenging, please bear with me. It is fundamentally important to understanding the essence of the problem. Let's first clarify some terms.
Weather and climate
Although there is overlap at the margins, there is a difference between what is meant by weather and climate. Weather characterizes our immediate environment in terms of atmospheric conditions such as temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, and precipitation. As we commonly use it, the word describes conditions at the locale in which we reside or to which we are going and the time we are or will be there. At any locale, weather can vary significantly over small (hourly) time changes, as well as from one season to another. In contrast, climate represents long-term averages of atmospheric conditions for a particular region.
We can describe in general terms winter and summer climates of regions such as the American Southwest and Northeast, Siberia, and sub-Saharan Africa. The climate of any region can also experience statistically significant variations, but unlike weather, changes to climate have historically occurred over much longer time frames, commonly measured in millennia. It is in reference to such variations that we use the term climate change. Another way to frame the distinction is to view weather as more variable over much smaller time scales.
It is tempting to draw conclusions about climate change from local weather patterns, particularly if they involve extreme weather events. The temptation should be resisted. Of course, climate change affects weather. But it can be misleading to draw conclusions about climate change from recent weather as, for example, last winter's conditions in South Bend, Indiana, or last summer's weather in Moscow, Russia. If climate change is inferred from changing weather patterns, the patterns should be examined globally and over an extended (decadal or longer) time frame.
Acknowledgments
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9 - Dissenting opinions: the great hoax
- Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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Summary
Whether as questions or comments following a presentation on climate change or in the course of casual conversation, I am often confronted by strongly held views on the subject. The tone is typically collegial and open to dialog, but it can get tense, if not hostile. In the United States, the issue is ideologically polarized, and it doesn't take much for discussions to become emotional. I've had enough of these interactions to prompt me to wonder, given the knowledge base on warming and climate change: What differentiates those who summarily dismiss the issue from those who believe it merits serious attention?
The political-corporate axis
Early in the history of concerns for global warming, influential elements of the U.S. business community viewed the issue as a threat and were determined to suppress it by whatever means, including the use of political leverage. Establishment of the IPCC in 1988 was followed almost immediately by formation of the Global Climate Coalition (GCC), an industrial consortium of major GHG emitters seeking to question the science of climate change by supporting organizations such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) to act as attack dogs. Numerous lobbying and public relations efforts were launched to cast doubt on evidence supporting global warming, even when engineers and scientists within the participating companies were affirming the contribution of GHG emissions to warming. Although the GCC disbanded in 2002, vestiges continued to challenge the authenticity of climate change. Casting doubt was the operative strategy, however specious the arguments, and became a tour de force for challenging the science of climate change in the U.S. Congress.
As described in Section 8.6, the strategy has been successfully used to kill legislative measures to curb GHG emissions. In the Senate, opposition has been led by James Inhofe of Oklahoma, an influential member of the Environment and Public Works Committee who views global warming as a hoax, perpetuated by alarmists (Carey, 2006a).