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Chapter 3 - Energy and Environment
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- By Lisa Emberson, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Kebin He, Tsinghua University, Johan Rockström, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Markus Amann, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Jennie Barron, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Robert Correll, Global Environment Technology Foundation, Sara Feresu, Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Zimbabwe, Richard Haeuber, United States Environmental Protection Agency), Kevin Hicks, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Francis X. Johnson, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm University, Anders Karlqvist, Swedish Polar Research Secretariat, Zbigniew Klimont, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Iyngararasan Mylvakanam, United Nations Environment Programme, Wei Wei Song, Tsinghua University, Harry Vallack, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Qiang Zhang, Tsinghua University, Jill Jäger, Sustainable Europe Research Institute
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
- Print publication:
- 27 August 2012, pp 191-254
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Summary
Executive Summary
Modern energy systems have been central to the development of human societies. They have perhaps been the single most important determinant of growth of our industrial societies and our modern economy. Unfortunately, they have also been a key driver of many of the negative environmental trends observed in the world today. For example, current energy systems are the predominant source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, accounting for 84% of total global CO2 emissions and 64% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to human activities. Past trends suggest that this percentage is likely to increase in the future if our energy needs continue to be met by fossil fuels.
The impact of GHG emissions on climate is arguably the most significant environmental impact associated with our energy systems, as the effects of such emissions are felt globally. However, these effects will not necessarily be equitable. Due to the realities of global and national economics, the areas that may suffer the greatest impacts from climate change may be those that have to date contributed the least in terms of GHG emissions. Our fossil fuel-based energy systems also emit substantial quantities of other atmospheric pollutants, for example sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), primary particulate matter (PM), and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), which degrade air quality and cause damage to health and ecosystems through processes such as acidifi cation, eutrophication, and the formation of ground-level ozone (O3) and secondary PM. Biomass-based energy systems can also have substantial impacts on land and water resources.
CHAPTER 7 - FUTURE TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTION
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- By Markus Amann, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Janusz Cofala, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Wolfgang Schöpp, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Frank Dentener, Joint Research Centre
- Edited by Ranjeet Sokhi
- Foreword by Mario Molina
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- Book:
- World Atlas of Atmospheric Pollution
- Published by:
- Anthem Press
- Published online:
- 05 March 2012
- Print publication:
- 03 May 2008, pp 95-102
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Summary
‘Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future’ (Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics). For instance, forecasters in Victorian London foresaw their city knee-deep in horse manure, one of the most pertinent urban environmental problems in cities at that time. A hundred years later, this prediction has not materialized and the situation has changed drastically. While traffic itself is still considered a major cause of urban air pollution, the contribution from horses has entirely disappeared and motorized vehicles are now the major source of deteriorated air quality in most modern cities.
Given the failure of simple extrapolations of present trends into the future, what can we say about air pollution in the coming decades?
To begin with, we know that population will further increase in urban areas, and we know that all societies aim to further strengthen their economic wealth. For a long time, air pollution from anthropogenic (non-natural) activities has been considered an unavoidable concomitant of economic development. Over long historic periods, we have seen air pollution levels increasing together with economic growth. Countermeasures to control air pollution have often been considered too costly to put into effect without compromising economic wealth.
Following this logic, the envisaged continued growth in global population, together with the universal target of improving prosperity, would lead to drastically worsened air quality around the globe, especially in many developing countries.