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Ever increasing global population necessitates the need to increase availability of affordable foods with high nutritional quality. Chickpea being the second most important grain legume cultivated worldwide has the great potential to alleviate problems of protein malnutrition and hidden hunger. The objective of the present investigation was to characterize a diverse set of 402 germplasm comprising of more than 100 commercial cultivars widely cultivated and utilized by breeders for grain protein in two contrasting environments to explore the magnitude of natural genotypic diversity present in the cultivated chickpea and the scope for enhancing it and its quality through breeding. The cultivars containing more than 25 to 30.44% grain protein have been found in the study and large scale production of such protein rich cultivars is expected to increase availability as well as consumption of high quality chickpea necessary to overcome all forms of malnutrition. Trait specific germplasm containing grain protein up to 33.56% are also identified for their further utilization as potential donors in the chickpea improvement programme. The amino acid profiling of selected high and low protein containing genotypes showed considerably greater average amino acid score for all the essential amino acids than the WHO recommended requirement values and is comparable to those of the ‘complete protein’ sources of food suggesting that chickpea deserves to be considered as a ‘complete protein’ source.

The aim of the study was to compare the efficacy of daily v. weekly oral vitamin D3 therapy in radiological healing of nutritional rickets. Children 6 months to 12 years (n 132) diagnosed with nutritional rickets were randomised into three groups (n 44): group A – 2000 IU daily vitamin D3 for 12 weeks, B – 60 000 IU weekly for 3 weeks, C – 60 000 IU weekly for 6 weeks. Serum calcium, phosphorus, 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), parathyroid hormone and X-ray score were estimated at baseline and 12 weeks (endline). The proportion of children who achieved complete radiological healing at endline was compared between three groups by χ2 and delta change in laboratory parameters by ANOVA (parametric data) or Kruskal Wallis test (non-parametric data), respectively. Baseline 25(OH)D ≤ 20 ng/ml was seen in 119 (90·2 %), hyperparathyroidism in 90 (68·8 %) and hypocalcaemia in 96 (72·7 %). A total of 120/132 children completed the study. Complete radiological healing seen in 30 (75 %) in group A, 23 (60·5 %) in group B and 26 (61·9 %) in group C; P = 0·15, with comparable endline X-ray scores; P = 0·31. The median (interquartile range (IQR)) delta X-ray score (baseline–endline) was 7 (4,9), 5 (2·25, 6) and 6 (4,7) in groups A, B and C, respectively; P = 0·019. Median (IQR) 25(OH)D endline levels in groups A, B and C were 50·0 (26·5, 66·5), 42·1 (28·4, 54·4) and 53·5 (33·7, 71·2) ng/ml, respectively; P = 0·045. Radiological scores were comparable at endline among daily and weekly vitamin D groups with greater change from baseline in daily supplemented group.

The growth rate of the Indian economy has plummeted sharply from 9 per cent in 2010 to below 5 per cent over 2012−14. It is essential to sustain a growth rate of 8 per cent or more over the next 20 years to eliminate poverty and reach a decent standard of living. There is an urgent need for research on the challenges facing India in reviving and sustaining high rates of economic growth, some of which are related to industrial policy, trade policy, infrastructure bottlenecks, inflation and macroeconomic issues, governance issues, demography and human capital. There is also a need for better industrial and human resource policies, higher investment and savings rates, higher exports and foreign investment inflows. This book studies the importance of growth, the role of industrial policy in sustaining it, and other critical issues regarding ways to revive and sustain higher growth in India across various sectors of the economy.

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Demographic transition is a process involving the transition from a young-aged population structure (high birth and death rates) to an old-aged population structure (low birth and death rates). Such shifts in population age structure have significant developmental implications for large and populous countries like India and China. With demographic transition, there is an increase in the share of working-age population, which subsequently lowers the dependency ratio (dependents to working-age population) and allows for acceleration in economic growth. Hence, the net growth benefits derived from an increased share of working-age population due to demographic transition is referred to as the demographic dividend (Gribble and Bremner, 2012).

The Chinese economy witnessed unparalleled economic growth during the transition phase. However, the demographic process will now contribute to the faster ageing of the Chinese population. Interestingly, India is currently in a phase where the population is relatively young, and it will witness continual decline in the share of dependents (children and elderly). This also provides an opportunity to harness the demographic dividend.

It should be emphasized that the notion of demographic dividend is not necessarily based on the concept of labour abundance (which India and China have), but is related essentially to the share of working-age population in total population and the nature of dependency profile. An economy with lower dependency burden will present itself with higher chances of economic growth, largely because a lower dependency burden allows for higher savings and investment in physical and human capital, contributing to sustained economic growth. In fact, it is estimated that nearly one-third of the economic miracle of East Asian countries (including China) can be attributed to the demographic dividend (Bloom and Williamson, 1998; Bloom and Finley, 2009). Similarly, other cross-country studies have observed a positive association between age-structure transition and economic growth (Behrman et al., 1999; Andersson, 2001; Bloom et al., 2003; Feng and Mason, 2005; Kelley and Schmidt, 2005; Bloom et al., 2006; Choudhry and Elhorst, 2010; Wei and Hao, 2010). Also, capital deepening and prudent fiscal management can ensure sustained developmental process when the phase of demographic dividend comes to an end (Mason and Lee, 2006).

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INTRODUCTION

Over the last several years, food price inflation has become a major problem in India. Price stability is crucial for sustainable growth as persistent inflation implies higher demand in relation to supply. Thus, there is an urgent need to understand this problem and to respond with appropriate agricultural policies to keep food prices stable if we are to reduce hunger and poverty in India. One reason for the rising food prices could be increasing demand for food, as the income levels increase with rapid economic growth. Another reason could be supply and distribution problems. Increases in international prices of foods could also be a factor. However, in India, import of cereals particularly is too low, hence food inflation is likely driven by domestic factors.

Given this situation, this study aims to undertake a careful analysis of demand and supply of food in India. We first estimate the demand for various food categories such as cereals, pulses, fruits, vegetables, milk and milk products, meat, etc., for more precise and category-wise estimates. We then project the future demand for various food categories for the next 15 years up to 2030. Such projections could be helpful in understanding the likely forthcoming food consumption patterns in the country. Finally, we examine whether the available land resources in the country would be sufficient to meet the future food demand by investigating supply factors like total agricultural land area, yield per hectare and cultivation of various food categories. From the projected demand and supply considerations, the study also explores whether the projected future demand could be met with suitable re-allocation of agricultural land among various food categories and what other policies could be helpful in meeting the future demand. These considerations yield significant insights for formulating the appropriate future agriculture sector policies for the country.

This chapter is organized as follows:

Summary

INTRODUCTION

The impact of Foreign Capital Inflows (FCI) on economic growth of developing countries has continued to occupy a central position in the literature dealing with development problems of our time. However, questions asked by researchers in this respect have changed with changes in the predominant form of foreign capital resources available to developing countries.

In the context of the emerging Asian countries, foreign inflows used to be mainly in the form of foreign borrowing. However, recently foreign inflows like FDI and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) have started to play a more important role. Many economists have hailed FDI as an important source of new technology and management know-how and a useful link to the world markets. On the other hand, concerns have also been voiced about whether the multinational firms and foreign portfolio investors might earn excessive profits, or adversely affect the development of domestic firms (in case of FDI) or otherwise be a source of economic exploitation of the developing countries.

Thus, it is important that we better understand the economic role of FDI and FPI in the Asian countries. Some of the important issues of contention are as follows:

Summary

India was able to achieve a growth rate of over 8 per cent during 2000–2011, and even handled the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 with only a short lived one year dip in its growth rate. It seemed that India too could repeat the Chinese style economic miracle and modernize its economy to regain its ancient glory as a leading nation of the world. However, over 2011–2014, its economy witnessed significant deceleration, as reflected in the sharp fall in the growth rate – from 9 per cent in 2010 to the range of 5-6 per cent over 2013 and 2014 and many observers even began to write off India's high growth story. Given the importance of sustaining high growth rates in India, this book was conceptualized early in 2014 as a sequel to Reviving Growth in India (also edited by Pradeep Agrawal and published by Cambridge University Press, 2015). A workshop was organized at the Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, India on 19 and 20 August 2014 which brought together leading economists from India, Europe and the United States to present their research findings about various aspects of sustaining high growth rates in India and to suggest policies to achieve it. The studies were subsequently subjected to careful deliberations and revisions. This book is a compilation of such selected studies.

For India, the importance of sustaining high growth rates for the next 25–30 years cannot be overemphasized. India will still be enjoying the fruits of demographic dividend for the next 25–30 years, and it will be a particularly opportune time to strongly focus on sustaining high growth, because we will have the benefit of the demographic support in the form of a young working age population. If we fail to achieve high growth, there will be serious consequences, in the form of high level of poverty and a large and young population looking for work and probably not finding enough of it, which can lead to social and political unrest and other problems. But, if we use this demographic dividend and good economic policies to achieve a growth rate of 8–9 per cent over the next 25–30 years, we can achieve per capita income over $12,000 (in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms this will be about $40,000, comparable to the current per capita income in Europe and the United States).

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important indicators of a country's economic performance, as it reflects better standards of living. Growth can also help alleviate poverty, especially when accompanied with a declining or stable inequality. However, sources of growth are very complex and varied in nature. This chapter examines the effect of one such major source of growth, infrastructure and human capital, in the context of India.

India is one of the fastest growing nations in the world. However, to sustain this growth, it is imperative to further augment investment in the economy. There is an acute need to further improve physical infrastructure, like transportation, telecommunication, electricity, energy, etc., as it reduces transaction and input costs, fosters investment and trade and raises productivity. Optimal investment in this sector should lead to an expansion of the manufacturing and service sectors, the creation of new jobs, an increase in the purchasing power of consumers and hence growth in the national income. Expenditure on social infrastructure like education and health services provides the economy with skilled and productive human capital, which leads to an increase in productivity, and thereby, economic growth. Given the likely importance of physical and social infrastructure to achieve and sustain high economic growth, a study based on this issue would be useful for an emerging economy like India from the policy prospective.

Considerable literature is available on the association between infrastructure and economic growth, including time series and panel data analysis. Many studies, such as Canning and Pedroni (2004), Easterly and Rebelo (1993), Calderón and Serven (2004) and Esfahani and Ramirez (2003) and some regional studies in India by Fan et al. (2000), Lall (2007) and Sahoo and Dash (2009, 2012) show that physical infrastructure like transportation, communication, power and telephones promote efficiency in the market by reducing the time spent on transit and thus promote economic growth. On the other hand, Devarajan et al. (1996), Agénor (2009) and Hulten and Schwab (1993) are of the view that countries stand to gain more by allocating their resources for the maintenance and operation of the existing infrastructure rather than building new projects to promote growth.

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Characterization of chickpea cultivars and trait specific germplasm for grain protein content and amino acids composition and identification of potential donors for genetic improvement of its nutritional quality

Daily v. weekly oral vitamin D3 therapy for nutritional rickets in Indian children: a randomised controlled open-label trial

Sustaining High Growth in India

13 - Demographic Dividend and Economic Growth in India and China

Summary

Section 2 - Promoting Industrial Development for Sustaining High Growth Rates

2 - Managing Food Price Inflation in India: Demand Projections and Supply Considerations

Summary

8 - Economic Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows in Emerging Asia

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Contents

Section 1 - Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability for Sustaining High Growth Rates

Obituary

List of Graphs and Maps

List of Tables

Introduction

Summary

List of Contributors

Section 3 - The International Economic Issues and Sustaining High Growth

Index

Section 4 - Infrastructure Bottlenecks to Sustaining High Growth

Frontmatter

Section 5 - Some Socio-political Issues in Sustaining High Growth

10 - Infrastructure, Human Capital and Economic Growth: A Quantitative Analysis for India

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Sustaining High Growth in India

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