Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-qxdb6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-26T20:41:42.604Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton Victory

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 October 2016

Bruno Jerôme
Affiliation:
University of Paris, II Panthéon-Assas
Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
Affiliation:
University of Paris-Sud Saclay

Abstract

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Symposium: Forecasting the 2016 American National Elections
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Baltagli, Badi H. 1995. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. John Wiley and Sons: New York.Google Scholar
Berry, Michael J. and Bickers, Kenneth N.. 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with State-Level Economic Indicators.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (4): 669–74.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 1992. “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States.” American Journal of Political Science 36: 386407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holbrook, Thomas M. 1991. “Presidential Elections in Space and Time.” American Journal of Political Science, 35: 91109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno and Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique. 2001. “La France réélirait Chirac” in Ils ont trouvé la formule qui donne le résultat des élections, L’Expansion 656, 821 November: 74–75.Google Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2003. “Reordering the French Election Calendar: Forecasting the Consequences for 2002.” European Journal of Political Research 423: 425440.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno and Jérôme-Speziari, Veronique. 2004. “Bush l’emporterait sur Kerry”. La lettre de L’Expansion. 25 October. 1730: 2.Google Scholar
Jerôme, Bruno and Jerôme-Speziari, Véronique. 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (4): 663668.Google Scholar
Jerôme, Bruno and Jerôme-Speziari, Véronique. 2013. “Why the state-by-state political economy model did it right.” PS: Political Science & Politics 46 (1): 45–6.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. 1966. The Responsible Electorate. New York: Vintage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klarner, Carl. 2012. “State-Level Forecasts of the 2012 Federal and Gubernatorial Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (4): 655–62.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 2005. “Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice.” British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7: 145–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Rice, Tom W.. 1982. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote.” Opinion Quarterly 46: 534–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Rice, Tom W.. 1984. “Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Comparison of Naïve Models.” Political Behavior 61: 921.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Stegmaier, Mary. 2013. “The VP-Function Revisited: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after over 40 years.” Public Choice 157 (3): 367–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Nadeau, Richard and Bélanger, Éric. 2016. “The British General Election: Synthetic Forecasts.” Electoral Studies 41: 264268 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Merrill, Samuel, Grofman, Bernard, and Brunell, Thomas L.. 2008. “Cycles in American National Electoral Politics, 1854-2006: Statistical Evidence and an Explanatory Model.” American Journal of Political Science 102 (1): 117.Google Scholar
Nannestad, Peter and Paldam, Martin. 1994. “The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 years.” Public Choice 79 (3/4): 213–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut. 2014. “The Electoral Cycle.” PS: Political Science & Politics 47 (2): 332–5.Google Scholar
Pottier, Jean.-Marie. 2008. “Barack Obama, Chouchou des prévisionnistes.” 31 octobre. www.challenges.fr. http://www.challenges.fr/monde/20081031.CHA7788/barack-obama-chouchou-des-previsionnistes.html Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J. 1983. Forecasting Presidential Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sigelman, Lee. 1979. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections.” Public Opinion Quarterly 43: 532–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tiebout, Charles M. 1956. “A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures.” Journal of Political Economy 64: 416–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar