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³ The Stability-Instability Paradox is thought to occur with respect to the use of cyber operations by state actors.

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⁵ There are increasing arguments that call for its use in conjunction with other foreign policy instruments. This, however, is not in scope for this study.

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¹¹ It is useful to note though that some of these may overlap with one another to achieve a desired tactical or strategic objective.

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¹⁵ Moving forward, all references to ‘cyber operations’ or ‘operations’ refer to ‘degradative cyber operations’.

¹⁶ Borghard and Lonergan, ‘The logic of coercion in cyberspace’, p. 474; Lindsay and Gartzke, ‘Coercion through cyberspace’, p. 173; Slayton, ‘What is the cyber offense-defense balance?’, pp. 87–91.

¹⁷ United States of America, ‘National Cyber Security Strategy of the United States of America’, available at: {https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/National-Cyber-Strategy.pdf} accessed 28 November 2018.

¹⁸ Elisabeth Bumiller and Thom Shanker, ‘Panetta warns of dire threat of cyberattack on U.S.’, The New York Times, available at: {https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/world/panetta-warns-of-dire-threat-of-cyberattack.html} accessed 28 November 2018.

¹⁹ Cyber Security Agency of Singapore, ‘Singapore Cybersecurity Strategy’, available at: {https://www.csa.gov.sg/~/media/csa/documents/publications/singaporecybersecuritystrategy.pdf} accessed 28 November 2018.

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²⁸ Furthermore, the extent with which cyber operations contributed to its success is also in doubt. This reflects the growing trend of considering cyber operations as one component of a larger strategic campaign.

²⁹ Pytlak, Allison and Mitchell, George, ‘Power, rivalry, and cyber conflict: an empirical analysis’, in Friis, Karsten and Ringsmore, Jens (eds), Conflict in Cyber Space: Theoretical, Strategic and Legal Perspectives (London: Routledge, 2016), pp. 65–82Google Scholar; Slayton, ‘What is the cyber offense-defense balance?’, pp. 72–109.

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³¹ Slayton, ‘What is the cyber offense-defense balance?’, pp. 72–109.

³² Liff, ‘Cyberwar’, pp. 409–21.

³³ Valeriano and Maness, Cyber War Versus Cyber Realities, pp. 45–77.

³⁴ Nadiya Kostyuk and Yuri Zhukov, ‘Invisible digital front: Can cyber attacks shape battlefield events?’, Journal of Conflict Resolution (2017).

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⁴² This is not to say, however, that a uniform perception of threat exists amongst these states.

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⁶⁷ Other aspects such as personality and leadership style may also severely impact the extent to which information is processed but these are not currently in scope; Bar-Joseph and Kruglanski, ‘Intelligence failure and need for cognitive closure’, p. 81.

⁶⁸ While significant to the study of bias, the freezing effect is not tested explicitly in these experiments.

⁶⁹ Rid and Buchanan, ‘Attributing cyber attacks’, p. 5.

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⁷⁶ The scenario is loosely based on the ongoing dispute between China and several Southeast Asian states.

⁷⁷ When terms are italicised, these refer to specific variables being studied.

⁷⁸ See Appendix.

⁷⁹ Although it has been shown that the response format can influence the emergence of bias, this is not the primary concern of this study and is consequently not tested.

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⁹¹ This is not statistically different from the first experiment.

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¹⁰⁵ This would have required the experiment to be re-registered and for additional funding sought.

¹⁰⁶ Experiments 1 and 2 were also tested to include Region but no significant results were found.

¹⁰⁷ Rid and Buchanan, ‘Attributing cyber attacks’, pp. 4–37.