Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-22dnz Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-28T09:47:54.025Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Costly Jobs: Trade-related Layoffs, Government Compensation, and Voting in U.S. Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 March 2011

YOTAM MARGALIT
YOTAM MARGALIT*
Affiliation:
Columbia University
*
Yotam Margalit is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Columbia University, 420 W. 118th Street, New York, NY 10027 (ym2297@columbia.edu).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Does globalization's impact on the labor market affect how people vote? I address this question using a new dataset based on plant-level data that measures the impact of foreign competition on the U.S. workforce over an 8-year period. Analyzing change in the president's vote share, I find that voters were substantially more sensitive to the loss of local jobs when it resulted from foreign competition, particularly from offshoring, than to job losses caused by other factors. Yet, I also find that between 2000 and 2004, the anti-incumbent effect of trade-related job losses was smaller in areas where the government certified more of the harmed workers to receive special job training and income assistance. The findings have implications for understanding the impact of international economic integration on voting behavior, as well as for assessing the electoral effect of government programs designed to compensate the losers from globalization.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 105 , Issue 1 , February 2011 , pp. 166 - 188
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Baker, Andy. 2005. “Who Wants to Globalize? Consumer Tastes and Labor Markets in a Theory of Trade Policy Beliefs.” American Journal of Political Science 49 (4): 924–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bhagwati, J., Panagariya, A., and Srinivasan, T.N.. 2004. “The Muddles over Outsourcing.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 (4): 93–114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bivens, L. Josh. 2007. “The Gains from Trade: How Big and Who Gets Them?” Economic Policy Institute. Working Paper.Google Scholar
Blinder, Alan S. 2006. “Offshoring: The Next Industrial Revolution?,” Foreign Affairs 85 (2): 113–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blinder, Alan S. 2009. “How Many U.S. Jobs Might Be Offshorable?” World Economics 10 (2): 41–78.Google Scholar
Bradford, Scott C., Grieco, Paul L. E., and Hufbauer, Gary C.. 2005. “The Payoff to America from Global Integration.” In The United States and the World Economy: Foreign Economic Policy for the Next Decade, ed. Bergsten, C. Fred. Washington DC: Institute for International Economics, 65–109.Google Scholar
Broadcasting and Cable Yearbook, 2003–2004. 2003. New Providence, NJ: Bowker.Google Scholar
Burgoon, Brian. 2001. “Globalization and Welfare Compensation: Disentangling the Ties That Bind.” International Organization 55 (3): 509–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cameron, David. 1978. “The Expansion of the Public Economy.” American Political Science Review 72: 1243–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Destler, I. M. 2005. American Trade Politics. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
Drezner, Daniel. 2006. U.S. Trade Strategy: Free versus Fair. New York: Council on Foreign Relations.Google Scholar
Dutt, Pushan, and Mitra, Devashish. 2002. “Endogenous Trade Policy Through Majority Voting: An Empirical Investigation.” Journal of International Economics 58 (1): 107–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feldman, Stanley. 1982. “Economic Self-interest and Political Behavior.” American Journal of Political Science 26: 446–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garrett, G. 1998. Partisan Politics in the Global Economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, Park, David, and Shor, Boris. 2008. Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
GilliamFranklin D., Jr. Franklin D., Jr., and Iyengar, Shanto. 2000. “Prime Suspects: The Influence of Local Television News on the Viewing Public” American Journal of Political Science 44 (3): 56–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Groshen, Erica L., Hobijn, Bart, and McConnell, Margaret M.. 2005. “U.S. Jobs Gained and Lost through Trade: A Net Measure.” Current Issues in Economic and Finance 11 (8): 1–7.Google Scholar
Grossman, Gene M., and Rossi-Hansberg, E.. 2008. “Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring.” American Economic Review 98 (5): 1978–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hays, J., Ehrlich, S., and Peinhardt, C.. 2005. “Goverment Spending and Public Support for Trade in the OECD: An Empirical Test of the Embedded Liberalism Thesis.” International Organization 59: 473–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hellwig, Timothy. 2001. “Interdependence, Government Constraints, and Economic Voting.” Journal of Politics 63 (4): 1141–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hellwig, Timothy, and Samuels, David. 2007. “Voting in Open Economies: The Electoral Consequences of Globalization.” Comparative Political Studies 40: 283–306.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hillman, Arye L. 1989. The Political Economy of Protection. New York: Harwood Academic.Google Scholar
Hillygus, Sunshine, and Shields, Todd G.. 2008. The Persuadable Voter: Wedge Issues in Presidential Campaigns. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hiscox, Michael J. 2002. International Trade and Political Conflict: Commerce, Coalitions, and Mobility. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Irwin, Douglas. 2005. Free Trade under Fire. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto, and Kinder, Donald. 1987. News that Matters. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Jensen, B. J., and Kletzer, Lori. 2008. “Measuring Tradeable Services and the Task Content of Offshorable Services Jobs.” In Labor in the New Economy, eds. Abraham, K., Harper, M., and Spletzer, J.. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Kayser, Mark A. 2007. “How Domestic Is Domestic Politics? Globalization and Elections.” Annual Review of Political Science 10: 341–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kinder, Donald R., and Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 1979. “Economic Grievances and Political Behavior: The Role of Personal Discontents and Collective Judgments in Congressional Voting.” American Journal of Political Science 23: 495–527.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kletzer, Lori. 2001. Job Loss from Imports: Measuring the Costs. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
Kletzer, Lori. 2004. “Trade-related Job Loss and Wage Insurance: A Synthetic Review.” Review of International Economics 12 (5): 724–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael, and Stegmaier, Mary. 2000. “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes.” Annual Review of Political Science 3 (1): 183–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mankiw, N. G., and Swagel, P.. 2006. “The Politics and Economics of Offshore Outsourcing.” Journal of Monetary Economics 53 (5): 1027–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, E., and Mutz, D.. 2009. “Support for Free Trade: Self-interest, Sociotropic Politics, and Out Group Anxiety.” International Organization 63 (2): 423–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marcal, Leah E. 2001. “Does Trade Adjustment Assistance Help Trade-displaced Workers?” Contemporary Economic Policy 19 (1): 59–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Margalit, Yotam. 2006. “Lost in Globalization: Economically Hurt or Culturally Threatened?” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia.Google Scholar
Markus, Gregory. 1988. “The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote: A Pooled Cross-sectional Analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 32: 137–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayda, A. M., and Rodrik, D.. 2005. “Why Are Some People (and Countries) More Protectionist Than Others?” European Economic Review 49 (6): 1393–430.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayer, W. 1984. “Endogenous Tariff Formation.” American Economic Review 74 (5): 970–85.Google Scholar
McCarty, Nolan M., Poole, Keith T., and Rosenthal, Howard. 2006. Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Miller, Joanne M., and Krosnick, Jon A.. 2000. “News Media Impact on the Ingredients of Presidential Evaluations: Politically Knowledgeable Citizens Are Guided by a Trusted Source.” American Journal of Political Science 44: 295–309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milner, Helen V., and Kubota, Keiko. 2005. “Why the Move to Free Trade? Democracy and Trade Policy in the Developing Countries.” International Organization 59 (1): 107–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mughan, A., Bean, C., and McAllister, I.. 2003. “Economic Globalization, Job Insecurity and the Populist Reaction.” Electoral Studies 22 (4): 617–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mughan, A., and Lacy, D.. 2002. “Economic Performance, Job Insecurity and Electoral Choice.” British Journal of Political Science 32: 513–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2001. “National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections.” Journal of Politics 63 (1): 159–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Rourke, Kevin H., and Sinnott, Richard. 2001. “What Determines Attitudes towards Protection? Some Cross-country Evidence.” Presented at Brookings Trade Policy Forum, May 10–11.Google Scholar
O'Rourke, Kevin H., and Williamson, Jeffrey G.. 1999. Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-century Atlantic Economy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pew Research Center. 2010. “Americans Spending More Time Following the News.” September 12. http://people-press.org/report/652/ (accessed October 24, 2010).Google Scholar
PowellG. Bingham, Jr. G. Bingham, Jr. 2000. Elections as Instruments of Democracy: Majoritarian and Proportional Visions. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
PowellG. Bingham, Jr. G. Bingham, Jr., and Whitten, Guy. 1993. “A Cross-national Analysis of Economic Voting Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (2): 391–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Public Citizen. 2006. “Election 2006: No to Staying the Course on Trade.” Global Trade Watch, November 8. www.citizen.org/documents/Election2006.pdf (accessed October 24, 2010).Google Scholar
Rodrik, Dani. 1998. “Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?” Journal of Political Economy 106 (5): 997–1032.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rogowski, Ronald. 1987. “Trade and the Variety of Domestic Institutions.” International Organization 41: 203–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ruggie, John G. 1982. “International Regimes, Transactions, and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order.” International Organization 36 (2): 195–231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scheve, Kenneth F., and Slaughter, Matthew J.. 2001. Globalization and the Perceptions of American Workers. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
Scheve, Kenneth F., and Slaughter, Matthew J.. 2007. “A New Deal for Globalization.” Foreign Affairs 86 (4): 34–47.Google Scholar
Sears, David O., and Funk, Carolyn L.. 1990. “The Limited Effect of Economic Self-interest on the Political Attitudes of the Mass Public.” Journal of Behavioral Economics 19: 247–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Stefanie. 2010. “Globalization and the Welfare State. Testing the Microfoundations of the Compensation Hypothesis.” International Studies Quarterly 54 (2): 403–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Margalit supplementary material

Appendix

Download Margalit supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 142 KB