Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Acknowledgments
- About the author
- 1 Setting the stage
- 2 Uncertain about science
- 3 Can the media help?
- 4 Unfamiliarity breeds uncertainty
- 5 Fever or chill?
- 6 A fifty–fifty chance
- 7 I'm not quite sure how this works …
- 8 Let's see what happens if …
- 9 Reconstructing the past
- 10 Predicting the future
- 11 Out of the blue
- 12 In a climate of uncertainty
- Index
12 - In a climate of uncertainty
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 11 August 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Acknowledgments
- About the author
- 1 Setting the stage
- 2 Uncertain about science
- 3 Can the media help?
- 4 Unfamiliarity breeds uncertainty
- 5 Fever or chill?
- 6 A fifty–fifty chance
- 7 I'm not quite sure how this works …
- 8 Let's see what happens if …
- 9 Reconstructing the past
- 10 Predicting the future
- 11 Out of the blue
- 12 In a climate of uncertainty
- Index
Summary
If we begin with certainties, we shall end in doubts, but if we begin with doubts, and are patient in them, we shall end in certainties.
Francis BaconWe have walked a long way through the garden of uncertainty and have seen a multitude of flowers and a few weeds, much elegance and a little untidiness. The garden is not a formal garden, laid out geometrically, tended immaculately. It is a garden with many hidden recesses, in places a maze full of surprises, with each plot revealing something not seen before. As we near the end of our tour, we have come to recognize that uncertainty, just like a flower, can be found in many places and presents itself in different colors and intensities.
Throughout this walk through the garden of uncertainty, we encountered many aspects of global climate change: taking Earth's temperature, local trends and global averages, flood probabilities, ozone depletion, science education, industrial propaganda and obfuscation, media confusion, reconstructions of past climate, computer models of the week's weather and the century's climate, and insurance for an uncertain future. In each domain of the garden, the tie to climate change was bundled into a discussion of other natural phenomena and human activity, with uncertainties that paralleled or shared characteristics with the uncertainties of climate change. In this final chapter, I will pull together these components of climate change and address the attendant uncertainties cohesively, as a representation of both the struggles and achievements of climate science, and of the hills yet to climb.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World , pp. 215 - 240Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2003