Skip to main content Accessibility help
Hostname: page-component-7ccbd9845f-w45k2 Total loading time: 0.553 Render date: 2023-01-31T20:54:31.984Z Has data issue: true Feature Flags: { "useRatesEcommerce": false } hasContentIssue true

International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Michael W. Doyle
Princeton University
Nicholas Sambanis
The World Bank


International peacebuilding can improve the prospects that a civil war will be resolved. Although peacebuilding strategies must be designed to address particular conflicts, broad parameters that fit most conflicts can be identified. Strategies should address the local roots of hostility, the local capacities for change, and the (net) specific degree of international commitment available to assist sustainable peace. One can conceive of these as the three dimensions of a triangle whose area is the “political space”—or effective capacity—for building peace. We test these propositions with an extensive data set of 124 post–World War II civil wars and find that multilateral, United Nations peace operations make a positive difference. UN peacekeeping is positively correlated with democratization processes after civil war, and multilateral enforcement operations are usually successful in ending the violence. Our study provides broad guidelines for designing the appropriate peacebuilding strategy, given the mix of hostility, local capacities, and international capacities.

Copyright © American Political Science Association 2000

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)



Alvarez, Michael, and Glascow, Garrett. 2000. “Two-Stage Estimation of Non-Recursive Choice Models.” Political Analysis 8 (12): 147–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alvarez, Michael, and Butterfield, Tara. N.d. “The Resurgence of Nativism in California? The Case of Proposition 187 and Illegal Immigration.” Social Science Quarterly. Forthcoming.Google Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, Easterly, William, and Baquir, Reza. 1999. “Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions.” Policy Research Working Paper 2108. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Allen, Woody. 1976. Without Feathers. New York: Warner Books.Google Scholar
Annan, Kofi. 1998. The Causes of Conflict and the Promotion of Durable and Sustainable Peace in Africa: Report of the Secretary-General. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
Arendt, Hannah. 1961. “What Is Authority.” In Between Past and Future. New York: Viking. Pp. 91141.Google Scholar
Axelrod, Robert, and Keohane, Robert. 1985. “Achieving Cooperation under Anarchy.” World Politics 38 (1): 226–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Azam, Jean Paul. 1995. “How to Pay for Peace.” Public Choice 83 (1/2): 173–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bates, Robert H. 1999. “Ethnicity, Capital Formation, and Conflict.” CID Working Paper no. 27. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University.Google Scholar
Blainey, Geoffrey. 1973. The Causes of War. New York: Free Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollen, K. A., Guilkey, D. K., and Mroz, T. A.. 1995. “Binary Outcomes and Endogenous Explanatory Variables: Tests and Solutions with an Application to the Demand for Contraceptive Use in Tunisia.” Demography 32 (02): 111–31.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Boulding, Kenneth. 1964. “Toward a Theory of Peace.” In International Conflict and Behavioral Science, ed. Fisher, Roger. New York: Basic Books. Pp. 7087.Google Scholar
Boutros-Ghali, Boutros. 1992. An Agenda for Peace. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
Brogan, Patrick. 1992. The Fighting Never Stopped: A Comprehensive Guide to World Conflict Since 1945. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Brown, Michael, ed. 1996. International Dimensions of Internal Conflict. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Chopra, Jarat. 1999. Peace Maintenance. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
CIA World Factbook. 2000. (accessed August 14, 2000).Google Scholar
Collins, Cindy, and Weiss, Thomas. 1997. “An Overview and Assessment of 1989–1996 Peace Operations Publications.” Occasional Paper No. 28, Thomas J. Watson Institute. Providence, RI: Watson Institute.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul. 1999. “On the Economic Consequences of Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers 51 (01): 168–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke. 2000. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.” World Bank Policy Research Paper 2355 (05).Google Scholar
Collier, Paul, Hoeffler, Anke, and Soderbom, Mans. 1999. “On the Duration of Civil War.” (accessed August 14, 2000).Google Scholar
Cousens, Elizabeth, Kumar, Chetan, and Wermester, Karin, eds. 2000. Peacebuilding as Politics: Cultivating Peace in Fragile Societies. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
David, Steven. 1997. “Internal War: Causes and Cures.” World Politics 49 (07): 552–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeFigueiredo, Rui, and Weingast, Barry. 1999. “The Rationality of Fear: Political Opportunism and Ethnic Conflict.” In Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention, ed. Walter, Barbara and Snyder, Jack. New York: Columbia University Press. Pp. 261302.Google Scholar
DeNardo, James. 1985. Power in Numbers: The Political Strategy of Protest and Rebellion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deng, Francis M. 1999. War of Visions: Conflict of Identities in the Sudan. Washington, DC: Brookings.Google Scholar
Deutsch, Karl, and Singer, J. David. 1964. “Multipolar Systems and International Stability.” World Politics 16 (04): 390406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diehl, Paul F., Reifschneider, Jennifer, and Hensel, Paul R.. 1996. “United Nations Intervention and Recurring Conflict.” International Organization 50 (Autumn): 683700.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doyle, Michael, Johnstone, Ian, and Orr, Robert, eds. 1997. Keeping the Peace: Multidimensional UN Operations in Cambodia and El Salvador. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Durch, William, ed. 1993. The Evolution of UN Peacekeeping. New York: St. Martin's.Google Scholar
Durch, William, ed. 1996. UN Peacekeeping, American Politics, and the Uncivil Wars of the 1990's. New York: St. Martin's.Google Scholar
Easterly, William, and Levine, Ross. 1997. “Africa's Growth Tragedy: A Retrospective, 1960–89.” Policy Research Working Paper 1503. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Eckstein, Harry. 1964. Internal War: Problems and Approaches. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.Google Scholar
Elbadawi, Ibrahim, and Sambanis, Nicholas. 2000. “How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence and Amount of Civil War in 161 Countries.” Working Paper. Washington, DC: World Bank DECRG.Google Scholar
Esty, D. C., Goldstone, J. A., Gurr, T. R., Surko, P. T., and Unger, A. N.. 1995. Working Papers: State Failure Task Force Report. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation.Google Scholar
Esty, D. C., Goldstone, J. A., Gurr, T. R., Harff, Barbara, Levy, Marc, Babelko, G. D., Surko, P. T., and Unger, A. N.. 1998. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation.Google Scholar
Evans, Gareth. 1993. Cooperating for Peace. London: Allen and Unwin.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49 (Summer): 379414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James, and Laitin, David. 1996. “Explaining Interethnic Cooperation.” American Political Science Review 90 (12): 715–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fetherston, A. B. 1994. Towards a Theory of United Nations Peacekeeping. New York: St. Martins.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franck, Thomas. 1998. “A Holistic Approach to Peace-building.” In Peacemaking and Peacekeeping for the New Century, ed. Otunnu, Olara and Doyle, Michael. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, Pp. 275–95.Google Scholar
Goulding, Marrack. 1993. “The Evolution of United Nations Peacekeeping.” International Affairs 69 (3): 451–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guilkey, D. K., Mroz, T. A., and Taylor, Larry. 1992. “Estimation and Testing in Simultaneous Equations Models with Discrete Outcomes Using Cross-Section Data.” University of North Carolina. Typescript.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted. 1993. Minorities at Risk. Washington, DC: USIP.Google Scholar
Gurr Ted, Robert. 1994. Ethnic Conflict and World Politics. Boulder, CO: Westview.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert, and Harff, Barbara. 1997. “Internal Wars and Failures of Governance, 1954–96.” Data-file: (accessed September 22, 2000).Google Scholar
Haas, Ernst B. 1986. The United Nations and Collective Management of International Conflict. New York: UNITAR.Google Scholar
Haas, Ernst B., Butterworth, Lyle, and Nye, Joseph. 1972. Conflict Management by International Organization. Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press.Google Scholar
Hampson, Fen. 1996. Nurturing Peace. Washington, DC: USIP.Google Scholar
Herbst, Jeffrey. 1996/1997. “Responding to State Failure in Africa.” International Security 21 (Winter): 120–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heston, Alan, and Summers, Robert. 1991. “The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (05): 327–68. Datafile (Version 5.6, 01 1995): Scholar
Hirschleifer, Jack. 1987. “Conflict and Settlement.” In New Palgrave, A Dictionary of Economics, ed. Eatwell, John, Milgate, Murry, and Newman, Peter. London: Macmillan. Pp. 567–70.Google Scholar
Human Rights Watch. Various years. World Report. New York/Washington, DC: HRW.Google Scholar
Iatrides, John O. 1993. “The Doomed Revolution: Communist Insurgency in Postwar Greece.” In Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, ed. Licklider, Roy. New York: NYU Press. Pp. 205–32.Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund. 2000. IMF Financial Statistics 1949–98. Washington, DC: IMF.Google Scholar
Jaggers, Keith, and Gurr, Ted R.. 1999. Polity 98. Scholar
Kacowicz, Arie. 1994. Peaceful Territorial Change. Columbia: Univeristy of South Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, Chaim. 1996. “Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Conflict.” International Security 20 (Spring): 136–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, David, and Rothchild, Donald. 1996. “Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict.” International Security 21 (Fall): 4175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Licklider, Roy. 1993. Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End. NY: NYU Press.Google Scholar
Licklider, Roy. 1995. “The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–1993.” American Political Science Review 89 (09): 681–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maddala, G. S. 1983. Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mason, David, and Fett, Patrick. 1996. “How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (12): 546–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mauro, Paolo. 1995. “Corruption and Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (08): 681711.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olson, Mancur. 1993. “Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development.” American Political Science Review 87 (09): 567–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oye, Kenneth. 1985. “Explaining Cooperation under Anarchy.” World Politics 38 (1): 124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paris, Roland. 1997. “Peacebuilding and the Limits of Liberal Internationalism.” International Security 22 (Fall): 5489.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posen, Barry. 1993. “The Security Dilemma in Ethnic Conflict.” In Ethnic Conflict and International Security, ed. Brown, Michael. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Pp. 103–24.Google Scholar
Ratner, Steven. 1995. The New UN Peacekeeping. New York: St. Martin's.Google Scholar
Regan, Patrick. 1996. “Conditions for Successful Third Party Interventions.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1): 336–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Regan, Patrick. 2000. “Third Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts.” Working Paper, Workshop on the Economics and Politics of Violence, Princeton University, 03 18–19.Google Scholar
Rivers, Douglas, and Vuong, Quang Wong. 1988. “Limited Information Estimators and Exogeneity Tests for Simultaneous Probit Models.” Journal of Econometrics 39 (01): 347–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rotberg, Robert I., ed. 1998. Burma: Prospects for a Democratic Future. Washington, DC: Brookings.Google Scholar
Selten, Reinhard. 1973. “A Simple Model of Imperfect Competition: Where 4 Are Few and 6 Are Many.” International Journal of Game Theory 2 (3): 141201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin. 1982. Resort to Arms. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin. 1994. Correlates of War Project: International and Civil War Data, 1816–1992 [computer file] (Study #9905). Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor].Google Scholar
SIPRI. Various years. SIPRI Yearbook, (accessed March 21, 2000).Google Scholar
Smith, Richard J., and Blundell, Richard W.. 1986. “An Exogeneity Test for a Simultaneous Equation Tobit Model with an Application to Labor Supply.” Econometrica 54 (4): 679–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stata Corporation. 1999. Stata Reference Manual: Release 6. College Station, TX: Stata Corp.Google Scholar
Stedman, Stephen. 1997. “Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes.” International Security 22 (Fall): 553.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stuart-Fox, Martin. 1998. A History of Laos. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Tomz, Michael, Wittenberg, Jason, and King, Gary. 1999. “Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results.” Version 1.2.1. (accessed January 4, 2000).Google Scholar
UN Commission on Human Rights (UNCHR). Various years. The State of the World's Refugees. Geneva: UNCHR.Google Scholar
UN Department for Development Support and Management Services and UN Industrial Development Organization. 1995. Post-Conflict Reconstruction Strategies, an International Colloquium at Stadtschlaining, 06 23–24, 1995. Vienna: UN Office.Google Scholar
UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations. 2000. (accessed October 7, 2000).Google Scholar
United Nations. 1996. Blue Helmets. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
Vanhanen, Tatu. 1999. “Domestic Ethnic Conflict and Ethnic Nepotism: A Comparative Analysis.” Journal of Peace Research 36 (1): 5573.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wallensteen, Peter, and Sollenberg, Margareta. 1997. “Armed Conflict Termination and Peace Agreements, 1989–96.” Journal of Peace Research 34 (3): 339–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wallensteen, Peter and Sollenberg, Margareta. 1999. “Armed Conflict, 1989–98.” Journal of Peace Research 36 (5): 593606.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara. 1997. “The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement.” International Organization 51 (Summer): 335–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara, and Snyder, Jack, eds. 1999. Civil War, Insecurity and Intervention. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth. 1964. “The Stability of a Bipolar World.” Daedalus 93 (Summer): 881909.Google Scholar
World Bank. 2000a. World Development Indicators. (accessed October 7, 2000).Google Scholar
World Bank. 2000b. World Tables of Economics and Social Indicators, 1950–1992. World Bank International Economics Department WDI database. (accessed August 14, 2000).Google Scholar
Zartman, I. William. 1985. Ripe for Resolution: Conflict and Intervention in Africa. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Zartman, I. William. 1995. “Putting Things Back Together.” In Collapsed States: The Disintegration and Restoration of Legitimate Authority: Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner. Pp. 267–73.Google Scholar
Cited by

Save article to Kindle

To save this article to your Kindle, first ensure is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the or variations. ‘’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis
Available formats

Save article to Dropbox

To save this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you used this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Dropbox account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis
Available formats

Save article to Google Drive

To save this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you used this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Google Drive account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis
Available formats

Reply to: Submit a response

Please enter your response.

Your details

Please enter a valid email address.

Conflicting interests

Do you have any conflicting interests? *