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  • Cited by 5
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    This article has been cited by the following publications. This list is generated based on data provided by CrossRef.

    de Magalhães, João Pedro 2016. A direct communication proposal to test the Zoo Hypothesis. Space Policy,

    Morrison, Ian S. and Gowanlock, Michael G. 2015. Extending Galactic Habitable Zone Modeling to Include the Emergence of Intelligent Life. Astrobiology, Vol. 15, Issue. 8, p. 683.

    Hair, Thomas W. 2013. Provocative radio transients and base rate bias: A Bayesian argument for conservatism. Acta Astronautica, Vol. 91, p. 194.

    Glade, Nicolas Ballet, Pascal and Bastien, Olivier 2012. A stochastic process approach of the drake equation parameters. International Journal of Astrobiology, Vol. 11, Issue. 02, p. 103.

    Forgan, Duncan H. 2011. Spatio-temporal constraints on the zoo hypothesis, and the breakdown of total hegemony. International Journal of Astrobiology, Vol. 10, Issue. 04, p. 341.


Temporal dispersion of the emergence of intelligence: an inter-arrival time analysis

  • Thomas W. Hair (a1)
  • DOI:
  • Published online: 25 February 2011

Many reasons for why extraterrestrial intelligences might avoid communications with our civilization have been proposed. One possible scenario is that all civilizations follow the lead of some particularly distinguished civilization. This paper will examine the impact the first successful civilization could have on all other subsequent civilizations within its sphere of influence and the ramifications of this as it relates to the Fermi Paradox. Monte Carlo simulation is used to map the inter-arrival times of early civilizations and to highlight the immense epochs of time that the earliest civilizations could have had the Galaxy to themselves.

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F.C. Adams & G. Laughlin (1997). Rev. Mod. Phys. 69, 337.

J.A. Ball (1973). Icarus 19, 347.

I.A. Crawford (2000). Sci. Am. July, 38.

K. Lanzetta (2002). Astrophysics 570, 492.

C.H. Lineweaver (2001). Icarus 151, 307.

C.H. Lineweaver , Y. Fenner & B. Gibson (2004). Science 303, 59.

M. Samland & O.E. Gerhard (2002). Astron. Astrophys. 399, 961.

D.L. Snyder & M.I. Miller (1991). Random Point Processes in Time and Space. Springer, Berlin.

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International Journal of Astrobiology
  • ISSN: 1473-5504
  • EISSN: 1475-3006
  • URL: /core/journals/international-journal-of-astrobiology
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