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THE CURRENT ACCOUNT OF THE SPANISH ECONOMY, 1850-2016: WAS IT OPTIMAL?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 October 2019

Oscar Bajo-Rubio
Affiliation:
Universidad de Castilla-La Manchaa
Vicente Esteve
Affiliation:
Universidad de Valencia and Universidad de Alcaláb

Abstract

We analyse the possible optimality of the path followed by the current account of the Spanish economy over a very long period of almost 170 years (1850-2016), according to the intertemporal approach to the current account and using a present-value model. In particular, from the estimation of a bivariate vector autoregression model for the current account, we attempt to assess the extent to which the latter has been used to smooth private consumption over time in the presence of temporary shocks that the economy might suffer. In general, evidence does not seem to be particularly favourable to the validity of the model over the period of analysis.

Resumen

RESUMEN

Analizamos la posible optimalidad de la senda seguida por la balanza por cuenta corriente de la economía española durante un largo periodo de casi 170 años (1850-2016), de acuerdo con el enfoque intertemporal de la cuenta corriente y utilizando un modelo de valor presente. En particular, a partir de la estimación de autorregresión vectorial (VAR) bivariante para la cuenta corriente, intentamos evaluar hasta qué punto ésta se ha utilizado para suavizar el consumo privado a lo largo del tiempo ante perturbaciones temporales que la economía pudiera sufrir. En general, la evidencia no parece ser particularmente favorable a la validez del modelo durante el periodo de análisis.

Type
Articles/Artículos
Copyright
Copyright © Instituto Figuerola, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 2019

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Footnotes

a

Department of Economics. oscar.bajo@uclm.es

b

Department of Applied Economics II and University Institute of Economic and Social Analysis. vicente.esteve@uv.es

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