Modelling Animal Systems Paper
Simulation of sow herd dynamics with emphasis on performance and distribution of periodic task events
- G. MARTEL, B. DEDIEU, J.-Y. DOURMAD
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- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 23 May 2008, pp. 365-380
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Currently, the diversity of sow herd management strategies has been described but there are no tools that explore how it promotes sow herd performance nor how it or performance are linked to work organization problems. The goal of the current study was to build a herd dynamic, stochastic object-oriented model capable of representing the herd dynamics and performance, and to predict the number of events workers will have to deal with. Each sow is individually represented in the model and the model works as a discrete event simulator with a predefined time step of 1 h. At each time step of simulation, the model searches for an event to be processed. An event may imply change of sow physiological state (e.g. oestrus, farrowing and insemination) and/or request an action from a worker (e.g. oestrous detection and farrowing supervision). This action may result in the planning of a new event (e.g. farrowing after mating) and/or modification of sow state (e.g. from oestrus to pregnant). The occurrences of some technical activities such as weaning are defined in time and frequency according to the management strategy of the farmer. The model is stochastic as sow biology is represented by several normal univariate distributions according to parity or by a threshold (fertility, abortion and mortality rates). When sows return into oestrus after mating they can be moved to another batch or culled depending on batch management strategy and culling policy. Outputs of this model focus on productivity of sows and distribution of tasks over the week. Definitions of the duration of simulation and number of replications to obtain the steady state and the variability of results are presented. The model is able to simulate several batch farrowing systems (BFS) and results of 1-, 3- and 4-week BFS are presented. Several simulations with modified management (no oestrous detection during the weekend and change of the weaning day) or with modified sow biology (increased variability of the weaning-to-oestrus interval and lower fertility rate) are performed. Results indicate that these modifications have specific consequences on performance and task distribution according to the BFS. The model provides useful information concerning the effects of herd management strategies on productivity and distribution of events over time and their sensitivity to biological criteria.
Effect of a pen in group-feeding trials: modelling data from suckler cows
- L. JAUHIAINEN, M. MANNINEN, J. ÖFVERSTEN
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- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 04 July 2008, pp. 381-387
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This paper provides information on the extent and containment of intraclass correlation (ICC) concerning group-feeding trials on suckler cows. The research comprised the re-analysis of six previously reported experiments and a parallel simulation study. ICC coefficients were estimated for eight variables. They were seen to be higher in experiments on bulls compared with those on cows and more notable in the measurements of live weight gain compared with final weight. Moreover, the ICC coefficients were generally high for all variables measuring behavioural patterns. The simulation study showed that using a single animal as an experimental unit could be valid in certain situations, but it could not be extended to cover all the cases. The simulation study also showed that the common mixed model approach had significant problems when the ICC was slight. In general, the research strengthened the arguments that much more effort should be placed on the planning and statistical analysis of group-feeding experiments, especially in behavioural studies.
Comparison of multi-criteria decision models to approach the trade-off between environmental sustainability and economical viability – a case of nitrogen balance in dairy farming systems in Reunion Island
- V. ALARY, M. GOUSSEFF, U. B. NIDUMOLU
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- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 04 July 2008, pp. 389-402
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In the context of market liberalization and in order to avoid trade distortions, European farmers risk experiencing a restriction of subsidies for market products. Moreover, policy makers cannot underestimate the public concerns about the non-productive functions of agriculture, such as environmental management. The current study illustrates different ways of modelling the trade-offs between environmental sustainability and economic viability for dairy farming systems in Reunion Island. Nitrogen (N) balance at the farm level is the result of complex interactions between pasture and animal management and between bio-technical and socio-economic management. Therefore, different multi-criteria models were tested using a common dynamic bio-economical model that integrated the different sub-systems of the farm and their interactions. Nitrogen excess mitigation in Reunion Island dairy farming systems was used as an illustration of a non-productive objective taken into account in the decision process modelling.
The simulations highlighted the necessity to adapt the nitrogen mitigation objective to the technical level of local territories in order to adopt environmentally friendly practices, without jeopardizing the local dairy sector. Moreover, the models generated a different set of solutions that varied according to how non-production functions are integrated in farmers' decision-making processes. This constitutes a relevant basis for discussions between farmers and decision makers.
Crops and Soils
Loss of nitrogen and carbon during storage of the fibrous fraction of separated pig slurry and influence on nitrogen availability
- J. PETERSEN, P. SØRENSEN
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- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 08 January 2008, pp. 403-413
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Manure production in the most livestock-intensive areas exceeds the crop demand for nutrients and legislative restrictions on application rate cause a shortage of land for manure application. Export of nutrients in the fibrous fraction of separated animal slurry has become an option for sustaining or increasing livestock production in livestock-intensive areas. The nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) losses during on-farm storage of the fibrous fraction, originating from separation of anaerobically digested pig slurry using the non-volatile elements phosphorus (P), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) as internal references, were calculated. In addition, the plant availability of N in fresh and stored fibrous fractions was evaluated in an incubation experiment. The losses of N and C were greater from the heap surface than from the centre, and turning the heap by reloading for transport increased the losses. The proportion of ammonium N, total N and C lost during storage of the fibrous fraction was 0·30–0·90, 0·10–0·55 and 0·35–0·70 of the initial amount, respectively. Storage reduced the plant-available N and the amount of residual organic N, thereby having long-term influence on soil fertility. The plant-available N in fresh fibrous fractions was 0·22–0·52 of total N, but decreased to 0·15–0·38 after storage due to a decrease of the Nammonium:Ntotal ratio during storage. The net mineralization of manure N was negatively related to the Ctotal:Norganic ratio. The fibrous fraction of separated pig slurry may be characterized as a manure with a high potential for loss and a variable value as fertilizer.
Field testing of six decision support systems for scheduling fungicide applications to control Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat crops in Ireland
- J. J. BURKE, B. DUNNE
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- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 08 January 2008, pp. 415-428
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Field experiments were conducted between 2003 and 2005 to compare the efficacy of five interactive decision support systems (DSSs) (DESSAC, PLANT-Plus, proPLANT Expert, CerDis and Crop Protection Online (CPO)) and an in-crop system (Septoria Timer) to schedule fungicide applications to winter wheat cultivars (Madrigal and Claire) for the control of Mycosphaerella graminicola. The effectiveness of the crop management programmes proposed by the DSSs was compared with that of standard 2-spray programmes applied at GS 37 and 65 and 3-spray programmes applied at GS 32, 39 and 65. Compared with the 3-spray programme, the programme scheduled by CPO advised application of the least active ingredient to the six trials over three seasons, while together with the Septoria Timer it also advised the least number of applications (average 2·3 per crop). The PLANT-Plus system advised the highest input of active ingredient and the highest number of applications (average of 4·0 per crop). The interactive DSSs responded to cultivar susceptibility to M. graminicola by scheduling more applications to the susceptible cv. Madrigal compared with the moderately resistant cv. Claire. Whether control of M. graminicola is expressed as reduction in the proportion of necrosis per leaf or a reduction of the area under the disease progress curve, the 3-spray programme provided the most effective control. The Septoria Timer provided a similar level of control. For the remaining programmes, the effectiveness of control varied with observation date, leaf and cultivar. The 2-spray programme provided the least successful control. Fungicide application significantly increased grain yield each season. The fungicide scheduling programme that provided the highest grain yield varied by cultivar and season. Grain specific weight was enhanced by fungicide application compared with the untreated control, except for cv. Claire in 2004. The fungicide scheduling programme that provided the highest specific weight varied with cultivar and season. The highest average margin over fungicide cost was provided by the Septoria Timer.
An agronomic and physiological re-evaluation of the potassium and sodium requirements and fertilizer recommendations for sugar beet
- G. F. J. MILFORD, P. J. JARVIS, J. JONES, P. B. BARRACLOUGH
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- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 08 January 2008, pp. 429-443
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The potassium (K) and sodium (Na) requirements of sugar beet were re-examined in a 6-year series of experiments between 2000 and 2005 using reference plots with a wide range of long-established differences in exchangeable topsoil K (Kex). Two groups of plots with a topsoil concentration Kex range of 40–550 mg/kg were used, each situated within an individual field, one on a silty clay loam at Rothamsted and the other on a contrasting sandy loam at Woburn. The interactions between topsoil Kex and applied N, K and Na fertilizers were studied at Rothamsted. Under these well-defined conditions, maximum yields of 55–71 t/ha of adjusted clean beet were achieved with a topsoil Kex concentration of 120–150 mg/kg, i.e. at Soil K Index 2–, with a small difference between the two soils being accounted for by differences in exchangeable soil Na and subsoil Kex. There were no yield responses to freshly applied fertilizer K, even on low K plots where responses might be expected. It is concluded that the existing recommendations for K fertilizer use on UK sugar beet do not need to be adjusted to allow for the higher yields of modern crops.
There were no yield responses to NaCl fertilizer at any level of topsoil Kex at Rothamsted (where the soil contained 15–20 mg Na/kg), but yields were increased on low Kex plots at Woburn whose sandy loam contained only 5–10 mg Na/kg. The uptake of Na from the applied NaCl fertilizer was strongly influenced by the exchangeable K and Na status of the soil. On the low Na soil at Woburn, almost all of the applied Na was taken up by sugar beet grown on plots with low concentrations of topsoil Kex and half of it on plots with adequate concentrations of topsoil Kex compared with two-thirds and one-fifth, respectively, on the higher Na-content soil at Rothamsted.
Plants partitioned 0·75 of their K and 0·95 of their Na to the shoot and the balance to the storage root. This pattern of distribution was consistent across sites, seasons and soil K supply. The physiological interactions between K and Na were studied by examining their millimolar concentrations in the tissue-water (mmol/kg) of the shoots and storage roots. The tissue-water concentrations of K in the shoot increased asymptotically with the concentration of Kex in the topsoil, and the increase in K concentration was accompanied by a corresponding decrease in the tissue-water concentration of Na. Maximum concentrations of K in shoot tissue-water (and minimum concentrations of Na) were achieved when the topsoil contained a minimum of 200 mg Kex/kg. The optimal physiological tissue-water concentration of Na in shoots was estimated to be c. 90–100 mmol/kg; maintenance of this level required a minimum of 25 mg/kg of exchangeable Na in the topsoil. When not limited by soil Kex, plants maintained a total tissue-water concentration of c. 300–350 mmol/kg of K+Na within the shoot. This was achieved with 80 mmol of Na and 230 mmol of K/kg of tissue water on the high Na-content soil at Rothamsted, and with 40 mmol of Na and 275 mmol of K/kg tissue water on the low-Na soil at Woburn.
Significant correlations were established between measurements of beet K made in the factory tarehouse and those made using standard laboratory chemical analyses and between factory estimates of the concentrations of K in the tissue-water of delivered beet and the topsoil Kex. The uses of these relationships to estimate the off-takes of K in the harvested beet and provide feedback to growers on the K status of their soils, and the implications of the study for the use of K and Na fertilizers on UK sugar beet are discussed.
Determining optimum planting dates for pearl millet for two contrasting environments using a modelling approach
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- C. M. T. SOLER, N. MAMAN, X. ZHANG, S. C. MASON, G. HOOGENBOOM
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- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 14 January 2008, pp. 445-459
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Pearl millet [Pennisetum glaucum (L) R. Br.] is an important cereal crop in Niger, West Africa and a potential crop for the United States of America (USA). Only a few studies have been conducted in either country to identify the optimum planting dates for high and stable yields, in part because planting date experiments are resource-intensive. Crop simulation models can be an alternative research tool for determining optimum planting dates and other management practices. The objectives of the present study were to evaluate the performance of the Cropping System Simulation Model (CSM)–CERES-Millet model for two contrasting environments, including Mead, Nebraska, USA and Kollo, Niger, West Africa and to use the model for determining the optimum planting dates for these two environments. Field experiments were conducted in both environments to study the impact of nitrogen fertilizer on grain yield of three varieties in Kollo and three hybrids in Mead and their associated growth and development characteristics. The CSM–CERES-Millet model was able to accurately simulate growth, development and yield for millet grown in these two contrasting environments and under different management practices that included several genotypes and different nitrogen fertilizer application rates. For Kollo, the optimum planting date to obtain the maximum yield was between 13 and 23 May for variety Heini Kirei, while for the other varieties the planting dates were between 23 May and 2 June. For Mead, the planting date analysis showed that the highest simulated yield was obtained, on average, between 19 and 29 June for hybrid 59022A×89-083 and 1361M×6Rm. Further studies should focus on evaluation and application of the millet model for other agroclimatic regions where pearl millet is an important crop.
Seed-set evaluation of four male-sterile, female-fertile soybean lines using alfalfa leafcutting bees and honey bees as pollinators
- E. ORTIZ-PEREZ, R. M. A. MIAN, R. L. COOPER, T. MENDIOLA, J. TEW, H. T. HORNER, S. J. HANLIN, R. G. PALMER
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- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 21 January 2008, pp. 461-469
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Male-sterile, female-fertile plants were used to produce hybrid soybean seed. Manual cross-pollination using male-sterile plants to produce large quantities of hybrid seed is difficult and time-consuming because of the low success rate in cross-pollination. Insect pollinators may be suitable vectors to transfer pollen, but the most suitable vector for pollen transfer from the male parent to the female parent has not been identified for soybean. The objective of the present study was to evaluate seed-set on four male-sterile, female-fertile soybean lines by using alfalfa leafcutting bees (Megachile rotundata (F.)) and honey bees (Apis mellifera (L.)) as pollinators. Seed-set was evaluated in summers 2003 and 2005 near Ames, Iowa, USA and in summers 2003, 2004, and 2005 near Wooster, Ohio, USA. Neither the effect of pollinator species nor the interaction effect of pollinator species×location was significant for any year. Honey bees performed similarly to alfalfa leafcutting bees at both locations. The results indicated significant differences for seed-set among male-sterile lines, suggesting preferential pollination. Male-sterile lines, ms1 (Urbana) and ms2 (Ames 2), had higher cross-pollinated seed-set compared to ms6 (Ames 1), and ms6 (Corsoy 79). At the Ames location, ms1ms1 (Urbana) plants had the highest seed-set (50·16 seeds per male-sterile plant in 2005). At the Wooster location, ms1ms1 (Urbana) plants also had the highest seed-set (92·04 seeds per male-sterile plant) in 2005. Costs and local conditions need to be addressed to support the choice of either pollinator species as a pollination vector to produce hybrid soybean seed.
Evaluation of treatment effects by ranking
- U. HALEKOH, K. KRISTENSEN
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- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 26 February 2008, pp. 471-481
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In crop experiments measurements are often made by a judge evaluating the crops' conditions after treatment. In the present paper an analysis is proposed for experiments where plots of crops treated differently are mutually ranked. In the experimental layout the crops are treated on consecutive plots usually placed side by side in one or more rows. In the proposed method a judge ranks several neighbouring plots, say three, by ranking them from best to worst. For the next observation the judge moves on by no more than two plots, such that up to two plots will be re-evaluated again in a comparison with the new plot(s). Data from studies using this set-up were analysed by a Thurstonian random utility model, which assumed that the judge's rankings were obtained by comparing latent continuous utilities or treatment effects. For the latent utilities a variance component model was considered to account for the repeated measurements. The estimation was based on a Bayesian approach, which was analysed via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. A simulation study showed that the approach was able to estimate the relative ordering of the treatments. The efficiency of the estimation increased with the overlap of the ranked observations. The approach was compared with a more traditional analysis of variance analysis applied to a proportional score for each plot by applying both methods to a real experiment. The relative ranking of the treatment effects were almost the same for both approaches. This method seems to be less sensitive to the judge and also eliminates any possible drift over the judging process in the more traditional method.
Variability within cotton cultivars for yield, fibre quality and physiological traits
- I. S. TOKATLIDIS, C. TSIKRIKONI, J. T. TSIALTAS, A. S. LITHOURGIDIS, P. J. BEBELI
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- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 10 April 2008, pp. 483-490
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Selection within elite cotton cultivars is ineffective; it is believed that they are genetically homogeneous. Research in other crops, however, has verified significant intra-cultivar variation based either on phenotypic differentiation or molecular analysis techniques. The present study primarily investigated possible intra-cultivar variation for seedcotton yield. Honeycomb selection within three elite cotton cultivars, on the basis of single-plant seedcotton yield and under the ultra-low density of 1·2 plants/m2, was performed. From each cultivar, six selfed (hand-pollinated) plants were selected and seed of each selected plant constituted a separate line. The 18 first generation lines were evaluated in three locations at a density of 1·2 plants/m2. Within each line, the 10 selfed plants which yielded the highest were selected. Mixed seed from these selected plants constituted the respective second generation line. Offspring performance of the 18 second generation lines was also tested in three locations at a density of 1·2 plants/m2. The results were indicative of intra-cultivar variation, since significant differentiation between lines of each cultivar was found for seedcotton yield per plant, averaged across two years and three locations. Additionally, significant intra-cultivar variation was found for fibre quality properties (length and micronaire, but not strength and uniformity) averaged across two years in a single location, as well as for physiological traits (leaf carbon isotope discrimination, ash content and K concentration) averaged across two years and three locations. In comparison with the original cultivars the second generation lines had higher seedcotton yields supporting the existence of exploitable genetic variation. The conclusion was that honeycomb selection in the absence of competition could be an effective technique in breeders' seed treatment in order to avoid gradual degeneration and beneficially exploit any latent or newly developed genetic variation.