Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- Notes on the contributors
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction
- 1 New Member States: macroeconomic outlook and forecasts
- 2 The asymmetric impact of enlargement on old and new Member States: a general equilibrium approach
- 3 Changes in the spatial distribution patterns of European regional activity: the enlargements of the mid-1980s and 2004
- 4 Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new Member States
- 5 The cyclical experience of the new Member States
- 6 Demand and supply shocks in the new Member States
- 7 Monetary transmission in the new Member States
- 8 Promoting fiscal restraint in three Central European Member States
- 9 Current account dynamics in the new Member States
- 10 Challenges to banking sector stability in selected new Member States
- 11 Infrastructure investments as a tool for regional development policy: lessons from the Spanish evidence
- 12 TFP, costs and public infrastructure: an equivocal relationship
- 13 Regional policies after the EU enlargement
- Index
- References
5 - The cyclical experience of the new Member States
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 22 September 2009
Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- Notes on the contributors
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction
- 1 New Member States: macroeconomic outlook and forecasts
- 2 The asymmetric impact of enlargement on old and new Member States: a general equilibrium approach
- 3 Changes in the spatial distribution patterns of European regional activity: the enlargements of the mid-1980s and 2004
- 4 Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new Member States
- 5 The cyclical experience of the new Member States
- 6 Demand and supply shocks in the new Member States
- 7 Monetary transmission in the new Member States
- 8 Promoting fiscal restraint in three Central European Member States
- 9 Current account dynamics in the new Member States
- 10 Challenges to banking sector stability in selected new Member States
- 11 Infrastructure investments as a tool for regional development policy: lessons from the Spanish evidence
- 12 TFP, costs and public infrastructure: an equivocal relationship
- 13 Regional policies after the EU enlargement
- Index
- References
Summary
Introduction
In this chapter we study the business cycle in the new Member States, focusing on the degree of cyclical concordance both within this group of countries, which turns out to be in general lower than that between the existing EU countries, and with respect to the Euro area, which is also generally low when GDP data are used, slightly higher with industrial production. Traditional optimal currency area criteria would say that these results cast doubt on the wisdom of adopting the euro in the near future for most of these countries; but other criteria such as the extent of trade and the probable non-availability of a well-established stabilisation regime outside monetary union membership point in the opposite direction.
The structure of this chapter is as follows. In the next section, we discuss the relevance of the topic under examination, briefly referring to some previous studies. The novel contribution of the present chapter stems from its use, in combination with new filtering techniques, of a flexible algorithm for dating the business cycle. These are discussed in section 5.3 of the chapter, full technical detail on the dating algorithm being postponed to the Appendix to this chapter. In section 5.4, we present the results of applying these techniques to the data sets available for the new Member States. Three concepts of the cycle are distinguished – the classical cycle, the growth cycle and the deviation cycle – and results for each are presented in turn.
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- Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2006
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