Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface to the Second Edition
- Preface to the First Edition
- 1 An Explanation for the Absence of Extraterrestrials on Earth
- 2 One Attempt to Find Where They Are: NASA's High Resolution Microwave Survey
- 3 An Examination of Claims that Extraterrestrial Visitors to Earth Are Being Observed
- 4 The Likelihood of Interstellar Colonization, and the Absence of Its Evidence
- 5 Pre-emption of the Galaxy by the First Advanced Civilization
- 6 Stellar Evolution: Motivation for Mass Interstellar Migrations
- 7 Interstellar Propulsion Systems
- 8 Interstellar Travel: A Review
- 9 Settlements in Space, and Interstellar Travel
- 10 Terraforming
- 11 Estimates of Expansion Timescales
- 12 A Search for Tritium Sources in Our Solar System May Reveal the Presence of Space Probes from Other Stellar Systems
- 13 Primordial Organic Cosmochemistry
- 14 Chance and the Origin of Life
- 15 The RNA World: Life before DNA and Protein
- 16 The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
- 17 Alone in a Crowded Universe
- 18 Possible Forms of Life in Environments Very Different from the Earth
- 19 Cosmological SETI Frequency Standards
- 20 Galactic Chemical Evolution: Implications for the Existence of Habitable Planets
- 21 The Frequency of Planetary Systems in the Galaxy
- 22 Atmospheric Evolution, the Drake Equation and DNA: Sparse Life in an Infinite Universe
- About the Editors and Contributors
- Author Index
- Subject Index
11 - Estimates of Expansion Timescales
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 20 October 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface to the Second Edition
- Preface to the First Edition
- 1 An Explanation for the Absence of Extraterrestrials on Earth
- 2 One Attempt to Find Where They Are: NASA's High Resolution Microwave Survey
- 3 An Examination of Claims that Extraterrestrial Visitors to Earth Are Being Observed
- 4 The Likelihood of Interstellar Colonization, and the Absence of Its Evidence
- 5 Pre-emption of the Galaxy by the First Advanced Civilization
- 6 Stellar Evolution: Motivation for Mass Interstellar Migrations
- 7 Interstellar Propulsion Systems
- 8 Interstellar Travel: A Review
- 9 Settlements in Space, and Interstellar Travel
- 10 Terraforming
- 11 Estimates of Expansion Timescales
- 12 A Search for Tritium Sources in Our Solar System May Reveal the Presence of Space Probes from Other Stellar Systems
- 13 Primordial Organic Cosmochemistry
- 14 Chance and the Origin of Life
- 15 The RNA World: Life before DNA and Protein
- 16 The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
- 17 Alone in a Crowded Universe
- 18 Possible Forms of Life in Environments Very Different from the Earth
- 19 Cosmological SETI Frequency Standards
- 20 Galactic Chemical Evolution: Implications for the Existence of Habitable Planets
- 21 The Frequency of Planetary Systems in the Galaxy
- 22 Atmospheric Evolution, the Drake Equation and DNA: Sparse Life in an Infinite Universe
- About the Editors and Contributors
- Author Index
- Subject Index
Summary
Introduction
‘I see that the valleys are thick with people and even the uplands are becoming crowded. I have selected a star and beneath that star there is a land that will provide us with a peaceful home.’
Ru, Traditional Founder of Aitutaki in the Cook Islands (Buck, 1938)An important corollary of the question ‘Where are they?’ is the question ‘Could they have gotten here yet?’ If we imagine a spacefaring civilization arisen a billion years ago and a thousand parsecs from Earth, what are the odds that the descendants of that civilization would have established settlements in the solar system before now? The answer, I believe, is that, if such a civilization had arisen and if interstellar travel is practical at a small percentage of light speed, it is virtually certain that the solar system would have been settled by non-natives long ago. Unless we discover that interstellar travel is impractical, I conclude that we are probably alone in the Galaxy.
We know nothing of any extraterrestrial civilization. If we assume that some have existed, it is also reasonable to assume that at least some would be as inquisitive and as eager for adventure as humanity (Hart, 1975; Jones, 1985). It would take but one such species to fill the Galaxy.
Humanity has a history of expansion into available areas on Earth. If we examine our past, we can estimate how long it might be before humanity would expand throughout the Galaxy.
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- ExtraterrestrialsWhere Are They?, pp. 92 - 102Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 1995
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