Introduction

Variational methods are a key component of the approximate inference and learning toolbox. These methods fill an important middle ground, retaining distributional information about uncertainty in latent variables, unlike maximum a posteriori methods, and yet generally requiring less computational time than Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. In particular the variational expectation maximisation (vEM) and variational Bayes algorithms, both involving variational optimisation of a free-energy, are widely used in time series modelling. Here, we investigate the success of vEM in simple probabilistic time series models. First we consider the inference step of vEM, and show that a consequence of the well-known compactness property of variational inference is a failure to propagate uncertainty in time, thus limiting the usefulness of the retained distributional information. In particular, the uncertainty may appear to be smallest precisely when the approximation is poorest. Second, we consider parameter learning and analytically reveal systematic biases in the parameters found by vEM. Surprisingly, simpler variational approximations (such as mean-field) can lead to less bias than more complicated structured approximations.

The variational approach

We begin this chapter with a brief theoretical review of the variational expectation maximisation algorithm, before illustrating the important concepts with a simple example in the next section. The vEM algorithm is an approximate version of the expectation maximisation (EM) algorithm [4]. Expectation maximisation is a standard approach to finding maximum likelihood (ML) parameters for latent variable models, including hidden Markov models and linear or non-linear state space models (SSMs) for time series.