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Ten new insights in climate science 2023
- Mercedes Bustamante, Joyashree Roy, Daniel Ospina, Ploy Achakulwisut, Anubha Aggarwal, Ana Bastos, Wendy Broadgate, Josep G. Canadell, Edward R. Carr, Deliang Chen, Helen A. Cleugh, Kristie L. Ebi, Clea Edwards, Carol Farbotko, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Thomas L. Frölicher, Sabine Fuss, Oliver Geden, Nicolas Gruber, Luke J. Harrington, Judith Hauck, Zeke Hausfather, Sophie Hebden, Aniek Hebinck, Saleemul Huq, Matthias Huss, M. Laurice P. Jamero, Sirkku Juhola, Nilushi Kumarasinghe, Shuaib Lwasa, Bishawjit Mallick, Maria Martin, Steven McGreevy, Paula Mirazo, Aditi Mukherji, Greg Muttitt, Gregory F. Nemet, David Obura, Chukwumerije Okereke, Tom Oliver, Ben Orlove, Nadia S. Ouedraogo, Prabir K. Patra, Mark Pelling, Laura M. Pereira, Åsa Persson, Julia Pongratz, Anjal Prakash, Anja Rammig, Colin Raymond, Aaron Redman, Cristobal Reveco, Johan Rockström, Regina Rodrigues, David R. Rounce, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Peter Schlosser, Odirilwe Selomane, Gregor Semieniuk, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tasneem A. Siddiqui, Vartika Singh, Giles B. Sioen, Youba Sokona, Detlef Stammer, Norman J. Steinert, Sunhee Suk, Rowan Sutton, Lisa Thalheimer, Vikki Thompson, Gregory Trencher, Kees van der Geest, Saskia E. Werners, Thea Wübbelmann, Nico Wunderling, Jiabo Yin, Kirsten Zickfeld, Jakob Zscheischler
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- Journal:
- Global Sustainability / Volume 7 / 2024
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 December 2023, e19
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Non-technical summary
We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems.
Technical summaryThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference.
Social media summaryWe highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research – with input from more than 200 experts.
25-Hydroxyvitamin D concentration and all-cause mortality: the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study
- Alicia K Heath, Elizabeth J Williamson, David Kvaskoff, Allison M Hodge, Peter R Ebeling, Laura Baglietto, Rachel E Neale, Graham G Giles, Darryl W Eyles, Dallas R English
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- Journal:
- Public Health Nutrition / Volume 20 / Issue 10 / July 2017
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 29 March 2016, pp. 1775-1784
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Objective
To investigate relationships between mortality and circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (25(OH)D3) and 25-hydroxyergocalciferol (25(OH)D2).
DesignCase–cohort study within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). We measured 25(OH)D2 and 25(OH)D3 in archived dried blood spots by LC–MS/MS. Cox regression was used to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HR), with adjustment for confounders.
SettingGeneral community.
SubjectsThe MCCS included 29 206 participants, who at recruitment in 1990–1994 were aged 40–69 years, had dried blood spots collected and no history of cancer. For the present study we selected participants who died by 31 December 2007 (n 2410) and a random sample (sub-cohort, n 2996).
ResultsThe HR per 25 nmol/l increment in concentration of 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 were 0·86 (95 % CI 0·78, 0·96; P=0·007) and 0·85 (95 % CI 0·77, 0·95; P=0·003), respectively. Of 5108 participants, sixty-three (1·2 %) had detectable 25(OH)D2; their mean 25(OH)D concentration was 11·9 (95 % CI 7·3, 16·6) nmol/l higher (P<0·001). The HR for detectable 25(OH)D2 was 1·80 (95 % CI 1·09, 2·97; P=0·023); for those with detectable 25(OH)D2, the HR per 25 nmol/l increment in 25(OH)D was 1·06 (95 % CI 0·87, 1·29; P interaction=0·02). HR were similar for participants who reported being in good, very good or excellent health four years after recruitment.
ConclusionsTotal 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 concentrations were inversely associated with mortality. The finding that the inverse association for 25(OH)D was restricted to those with no detectable 25(OH)D2 requires confirmation in populations with higher exposure to ergocalciferol.
Contributors
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- By Basem Abdelmalak, Joseph Abdelmalak, Alaa A. Abd-Elsayed, David L. Adams, Eric E. Adelman, Maged Argalious, Endrit Bala, Gene H. Barnett, Sheron Beltran, Andrew Bielaczyc, William Bingaman, James M. Blum, Alina Bodas, Vera Borzova, Richard Bowers, Adam Brown, Chad M. Brummett, Alexandra S. Bullough, James F. Burke, Juan P. Cata, Neeraj Chaudhary, Michael J. Claybon, Miguel Cruz, Milind Deogaonkar, Vikram Dhawan, Thomas Didier, D. John Doyle, Zeyd Ebrahim, Hesham Elsharkawy, Wael Ali Sakr Esa, Ehab Farag, Ryen D. Fons, Joseph J. Gemmete, Matt Giles, Phil Gillen, Goodarz Golmirzaie, Marcos Gomes, Lisa Grilly, Maged Guirguis, David W. Healy, Heather Hervey-Jumper, Shawn L. Hervey-Jumper, Paul E. Hilliard, Samuel A. Irefin, George K. Istaphanous, Teresa L. Jacobs, Ellen Janke, Greta Jo, James W. Jones, Rami Karroum, Allen Keebler, Stephen J. Kimatian, Colleen G. Koch, Robert Scott Kriss, Andrea Kurz, Jia Lin, Michael D. Maile, Negmeldeen F. Mamoun, Mariel Manlapaz, Edward Manno, Donn Marciniak, Piyush Mathur, Nicholas F. Marko, Matthew Martin, George A. Mashour, Marco Maurtua, Scott T. McCardle, Julie McClelland, Uma Menon, Paul S. Moor, Laurel E. Moore, Ruairi Moulding, Dileep R. Nair, Todd Nelson, Julie Niezgoda, Edward Noguera, Jerome O’Hara, Aditya S. Pandey, Mauricio Perilla, Paul Picton, Marc J. Popovich, J. Javier Provencio, Venkatakrishna Rajajee, Mohit Rastogi, Stacy Ritzman, Lauryn R. Rochlen, Leif Saager, Vivek Sabharwal, Oren Sagher, Kenneth Saliba, Milad Sharifpour, Lesli E. Skolarus, Paul Smythe, Wolf H. Stapelfeldt, William R. Stetler, Peter Stiles, Vijay Tarnal, Khoi D. Than, B. Gregory Thompson, Alparslan Turan, Christopher R. Turner, Justin Upp, Sumeet Vadera, Jennifer Vance, Anthony C. Wang, Robert J. Weil, Marnie B. Welch, Karen K. Wilkins, Erin S. Williams, George N. Youssef, Asma Zakaria, Sherif S. Zaky, Andrew Zura
- Edited by George A. Mashour, Ehab Farag
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- Book:
- Case Studies in Neuroanesthesia and Neurocritical Care
- Published online:
- 03 May 2011
- Print publication:
- 03 February 2011, pp x-xvi
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Contributors
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- By Phillip L. Ackerman, Neil Anderson, Jens B. Asendorpf, R. Michael Bagby, Michael Harris Bond, Gregory J. Boyle, Andrea L. Briggs, Giles St J. Burch, Turhan Canli, David Canter, Gianvittorio Caprara, Charles S. Carver, Douglas F. Cellar, Gordon Claridge, Susan Cloninger, Elisabeth D. Conradt, Philip J. Corr, Sharon Dawe, Ian J. Deary, Boele De Raad, Edward L. Deci, Colin G. DeYoung, M. Brent Donnellan, Juris G. Draguns, Marko Elovainio, Aurelio José Figueredo, David C. Funder, Paul Gladden, Rapson Gomez, Samuel D. Gosling, Jeremy R. Gray, Robert D. Hare, B. Austin Harley, Edward Helmes, Robert Hogan, Lauri A. Jensen-Campbell, Daniel Nelson Jones, Mika Kivimäki, Jennifer M. Knack, James T. Lamiell, Natalie J. Loxton, Geoff MacDonald, Gerald Matthews, Robert R. McCrae, Mario Mikulincer, Stephanie N. Mullins-Sweatt, Marcus R. Munafò, Vickie Nam, Craig S. Newmann, Rainer Reisenzein, Madeline Rex-Lear, Richard W. Robins, Michael D. Robinson, Mary K. Rothbart, Richard M. Ryan, Gerard Saucier, Michael F. Scheier, Constantine Sedikides, Phillip R. Shaver, Brad E. Sheese, Yuichi Shoda, Ronald E. Smith, Alice F. Stuhlmacher, Rhonda Swickert, Avril Thorne, David D. Vachon, Geneva Vásquez, Michele Vecchione, Seth A. Wagerman, Fiona Warren, Hannelore Weber, Thomas A. Widiger, Pedro Sofio Abril Wolf, Donna Youngs, Moshe Zeidner
- Edited by Philip J. Corr, University of East Anglia, Gerald Matthews, University of Cincinnati
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- Book:
- The Cambridge Handbook of Personality Psychology
- Published online:
- 05 June 2012
- Print publication:
- 16 July 2009, pp xv-xvii
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Preliminary-Test Estimation of the Error Variance in Linear Regression
- Judith A. Clarke, David E. A. Giles, T. Dudley Wallace
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- Journal:
- Econometric Theory / Volume 3 / Issue 2 / April 1987
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 11 February 2009, pp. 299-304
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We derive exact finite-sample expressions for the biases and risks of several common pretest estimators of the scale parameter in the linear regression model. These estimators are associated with least squares, maximum likelihood and minimum mean squared error component estimators. Of these three criteria, the last is found to be superior (in terms of risk under quadratic loss) when pretesting in typical situations.
Patterns of cognitive change over time and relationship to age following successful treatment of Cushing's disease
- JULIE N. HOOK, BRUNO GIORDANI, DAVID E. SCHTEINGART, KENNETH GUIRE, JODIE GILES, KELLEY RYAN, STEPHEN S. GEBARSKI, SCOTT A. LANGENECKER, MONICA N. STARKMAN
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- Journal:
- Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society / Volume 13 / Issue 1 / January 2007
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 13 December 2006, pp. 21-29
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Chronically elevated levels of cortisol have been associated with changes in cognitive functioning and brain morphology. Using Cushing's disease as a model to assess the effects of high levels of cortisol on cognitive functioning, 27 patients with Cushing's disease were examined at baseline and three successive follow-up periods up to 18 months after successful surgical treatment. At all follow-up periods, patients were administered cognitive tests as well as measures of plasma and urinary free cortisol. Structural MRIs and a depression measure were taken at baseline and one-year follow-up. Results showed that there is a specific pattern of significant cognitive and morphological improvement following successful treatment. Verbal fluency and recall showed recovery, although brief attention did not. Age of participants was a significant factor as to when recovery of function occurred; younger patients regained and sustained their improvement in cognitive functioning more quickly than older participants. Improvement in verbal recall also was associated with a decrease in cortisol levels as well as an increase in hippocampal formation volume one year after treatment. Overall, these findings suggest that at least some of the deleterious effects of prolonged hypercortisolemia on cognitive functioning are potentially reversible, up to at least 18 months post treatment. (JINS, 2007, 13, 21–29.)
Looking Backward, Looking Forward: MLA Members Speak
- April Alliston, Elizabeth Ammons, Jean Arnold, Nina Baym, Sandra L. Beckett, Peter G. Beidler, Roger A. Berger, Sandra Bermann, J.J. Wilson, Troy Boone, Alison Booth, Wayne C. Booth, James Phelan, Marie Borroff, Ihab Hassan, Ulrich Weisstein, Zack Bowen, Jill Campbell, Dan Campion, Jay Caplan, Maurice Charney, Beverly Lyon Clark, Robert A. Colby, Thomas C. Coleman III, Nicole Cooley, Richard Dellamora, Morris Dickstein, Terrell Dixon, Emory Elliott, Caryl Emerson, Ann W. Engar, Lars Engle, Kai Hammermeister, N. N. Feltes, Mary Anne Ferguson, Annie Finch, Shelley Fisher Fishkin, Jerry Aline Flieger, Norman Friedman, Rosemarie Garland-Thomson, Sandra M. Gilbert, Laurie Grobman, George Guida, Liselotte Gumpel, R. K. Gupta, Florence Howe, Cathy L. Jrade, Richard A. Kaye, Calhoun Winton, Murray Krieger, Robert Langbaum, Richard A. Lanham, Marilee Lindemann, Paul Michael Lützeler, Thomas J. Lynn, Juliet Flower MacCannell, Michelle A. Massé, Irving Massey, Georges May, Christian W. Hallstein, Gita May, Lucy McDiarmid, Ellen Messer-Davidow, Koritha Mitchell, Robin Smiles, Kenyatta Albeny, George Monteiro, Joel Myerson, Alan Nadel, Ashton Nichols, Jeffrey Nishimura, Neal Oxenhandler, David Palumbo-Liu, Vincent P. Pecora, David Porter, Nancy Potter, Ronald C. Rosbottom, Elias L. Rivers, Gerhard F. Strasser, J. L. Styan, Marianna De Marco Torgovnick, Gary Totten, David van Leer, Asha Varadharajan, Orrin N. C. Wang, Sharon Willis, Louise E. Wright, Donald A. Yates, Takayuki Yokota-Murakami, Richard E. Zeikowitz, Angelika Bammer, Dale Bauer, Karl Beckson, Betsy A. Bowen, Stacey Donohue, Sheila Emerson, Gwendolyn Audrey Foster, Jay L. Halio, Karl Kroeber, Terence Hawkes, William B. Hunter, Mary Jambus, Willard F. King, Nancy K. Miller, Jody Norton, Ann Pellegrini, S. P. Rosenbaum, Lorie Roth, Robert Scholes, Joanne Shattock, Rosemary T. VanArsdel, Alfred Bendixen, Alarma Kathleen Brown, Michael J. Kiskis, Debra A. Castillo, Rey Chow, John F. Crossen, Robert F. Fleissner, Regenia Gagnier, Nicholas Howe, M. Thomas Inge, Frank Mehring, Hyungji Park, Jahan Ramazani, Kenneth M. Roemer, Deborah D. Rogers, A. LaVonne Brown Ruoff, Regina M. Schwartz, John T. Shawcross, Brenda R. Silver, Andrew von Hendy, Virginia Wright Wexman, Britta Zangen, A. Owen Aldridge, Paula R. Backscheider, Roland Bartel, E. M. Forster, Milton Birnbaum, Jonathan Bishop, Crystal Downing, Frank H. Ellis, Roberto Forns-Broggi, James R. Giles, Mary E. Giles, Susan Blair Green, Madelyn Gutwirth, Constance B. Hieatt, Titi Adepitan, Edgar C. Knowlton, Jr., Emanuel Mussman, Sally Todd Nelson, Robert O. Preyer, David Diego Rodriguez, Guy Stern, James Thorpe, Robert J. Wilson, Rebecca S. Beal, Joyce Simutis, Betsy Bowden, Sara Cooper, Wheeler Winston Dixon, Tarek el Ariss, Richard Jewell, John W. Kronik, Wendy Martin, Stuart Y. McDougal, Hugo Méndez-Ramírez, Ivy Schweitzer, Armand E. Singer, G. Thomas Tanselle, Tom Bishop, Mary Ann Caws, Marcel Gutwirth, Christophe Ippolito, Lawrence D. Kritzman, James Longenbach, Tim McCracken, Wolfe S. Molitor, Diane Quantic, Gregory Rabassa, Ellen M. Tsagaris, Anthony C. Yu, Betty Jean Craige, Wendell V. Harris, J. Hillis Miller, Jesse G. Swan, Helene Zimmer-Loew, Peter Berek, James Chandler, Hanna K. Charney, Philip Cohen, Judith Fetterley, Herbert Lindenberger, Julia Reinhard Lupton, Maximillian E. Novak, Richard Ohmann, Marjorie Perloff, Mark Reynolds, James Sledd, Harriet Turner, Marie Umeh, Flavia Aloya, Regina Barreca, Konrad Bieber, Ellis Hanson, William J. Hyde, Holly A. Laird, David Leverenz, Allen Michie, J. Wesley Miller, Marvin Rosenberg, Daniel R. Schwarz, Elizabeth Welt Trahan, Jean Fagan Yellin
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- Journal:
- PMLA / Publications of the Modern Language Association of America / Volume 115 / Issue 7 / December 2000
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 23 October 2020, pp. 1986-2078
- Print publication:
- December 2000
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