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On probability analysis in snow avalanche hazard zoning
- Carl Harbitz, Alf Harbitz, Farrokh Nadim
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- Journal:
- Annals of Glaciology / Volume 32 / 2001
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 14 September 2017, pp. 290-298
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- Article
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The reduced societal acceptance of living in regions exposed to snow avalanches, and the increased economic consequences when houses are located within a hazard zone, highlight the uncertainty concerning avalanche run-out prediction. The limitations of today’s zoning procedures are especially pronounced in potential avalanche terrain where there are few observations of snow avalanches, where old buildings are present in the potential run-out zone, and where the local climate does not favour severe snow accumulation. This paper combines a mechanical probabilistic model for avalanche release with a statistical/topographical model for avalanche run-out distance to obtain the unconditional probability of extreme run-out distance. For the mechanical model, a first-order reliability method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations are compared. The interpretation of the statistical/topographical model either as an extreme value model or as a single value model is discussed. Furthermore, both a classical approach where the probability of an avalanche occurring is a constant, and a Bayesian approach with stochastic probability, are compared. Finally, example applications in hazard zoning are presented, with emphasis on how the influence of historical observations, local climate, etc., on run-out distance can be quantified in statistical terms and how a specified certainty level can be found from constructing confidence intervals for, for example, the most likely largest run-out distance during various time intervals.
Chapter 9 - Case Studies
- from Section III
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- By Virginia Murray, Gordon McBean, Mihir Bhatt, Sergey Borsch, Tae Sung Cheong, Wadid Fawzy Erian, Silvia Llosa, Farrokh Nadim, Mario Nunez, Ravsal Oyun, Avelino G. Suarez, John Hay, Mai Trong Nhuan, Jose Moreno, Peter Berry, Harriet Caldin, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Catriona Carmichael, Anita Cooper, Cherif Diop, Justin Ginnetti, Delphine Grynzspan, Clare Heaviside, Jeremy Hess, James Kossin, Paul Kovacs, Sari Kovats, Irene Kreis, Reza Lahidji, Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer, Felipe Lucio, Simon Mason, Sabrina McCormick, Reinhard Mechler, Bettina Menne, Soojeong Myeong, Arona Ngari, Neville Nicholls, Ursula Oswald Spring, Pascal Peduzzi, Rosa Perez, Caroline Rodgers, Hannah Rowlatt, Sohel Saikat, Sonia Seneviratne, Addis Taye, Richard Thornton, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Koko Warner, Irina Zodrow
- Edited by Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker, Qin Dahe
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- Book:
- Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
- Published online:
- 05 August 2012
- Print publication:
- 28 May 2012, pp 487-542
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Summary
Executive Summary
Case studies contribute more focused analyses which, in the context of human loss and damage, demonstrate the effectiveness of response strategies and prevention measures and identify lessons about success in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The case studies were chosen to complement and be consistent with the information in the preceding chapters, and to demonstrate aspects of the key messages in the Summary for Policymakers and the Hyogo Framework for Action Priorities.
The case studies were grouped to examine types of extreme events, vulnerable regions, and methodological approaches. For the extreme event examples, the first two case studies pertain to events of extreme temperature with moisture deficiencies in Europe and Australia and their impacts including on health. These are followed by case studies on drought in Syria and dzud, cold-dry conditions in Mongolia. Tropical cyclones in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Mesoamerica, and then floods in Mozambique are discussed in the context of community actions. The last of the extreme events case studies is about disastrous epidemic disease, using the case of cholera in Zimbabwe, as the example.
The case studies chosen to reflect vulnerable regions demonstrate how a changing climate provides significant concerns for people, societies, and their infrastructure. These are: Mumbai as an example of a coastal megacity; the Republic of the Marshall Islands, as an example of small island developing states with special challenges for adaptation; and Canada's northern regions as an example of cold climate vulnerabilities focusing on infrastructures.