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Machine Learning in Fine Wine Price Prediction*
- Michelle Yeo, Tristan Fletcher, John Shawe-Taylor
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- Journal:
- Journal of Wine Economics / Volume 10 / Issue 2 / November 2015
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 05 August 2015, pp. 151-172
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Advanced machine learning techniques like Gaussian process regression and multi-task learning are novel in the area of wine price prediction; previous research in this area being restricted to parametric linear regression models when predicting wine prices. Using historical price data of the 100 wines in the Liv-Ex 100 index, the main contributions of this paper to the field are, firstly, a clustering of the wines into two distinct clusters based on autocorrelation. Secondly, an implementation of Gaussian process regression on these wines with predictive accuracy surpassing both the trivial and simple ARMA and GARCH time series prediction benchmarks. Lastly, an implementation of an algorithm which performs multi-task feature learning with kernels on the wine returns as an extension to our optimal Gaussian process regression model. Using the optimal covariance kernel from Gaussian process regression, we achieve predictive results which are comparable to that of Gaussian process regression. Altogether, our research suggests that there is potential in using advanced machine learning techniques in wine price prediction. (JEL Classifications: C6, G12)
The science of EChO
- Giovanna Tinetti, James Y-K. Cho, Caitlin A. Griffith, Olivier Grasset, Lee Grenfell, Tristan Guillot, Tommi T. Koskinen, Julianne I. Moses, David Pinfield, Jonathan Tennyson, Marcell Tessenyi, Robin Wordsworth, Alan Aylward, Roy van Boekel, Angioletta Coradini, Therese Encrenaz, Ignas Snellen, Maria R. Zapatero-Osorio, Jeroen Bouwman, Vincent Coudé du Foresto, Mercedes Lopez-Morales, Ingo Mueller-Wodarg, Enric Pallé, Franck Selsis, Alessandro Sozzetti, Jean-Philippe Beaulieu, Thomas Henning, Michael Meyer, Giuseppina Micela, Ignasi Ribas, Daphne Stam, Mark Swain, Oliver Krause, Marc Ollivier, Emanuele Pace, Bruce Swinyard, Peter A.R. Ade, Nick Achilleos, Alberto Adriani, Craig B. Agnor, Cristina Afonso, Carlos Allende Prieto, Gaspar Bakos, Robert J. Barber, Michael Barlow, Peter Bernath, Bruno Bézard, Pascal Bordé, Linda R. Brown, Arnaud Cassan, Céline Cavarroc, Angela Ciaravella, Charles Cockell, Athéna Coustenis, Camilla Danielski, Leen Decin, Remco De Kok, Olivier Demangeon, Pieter Deroo, Peter Doel, Pierre Drossart, Leigh N. Fletcher, Matteo Focardi, Francois Forget, Steve Fossey, Pascal Fouqué, James Frith, Marina Galand, Patrick Gaulme, Jonay I. González Hernández, Davide Grassi, Matt J. Griffin, Ulrich Grözinger, Manuel Guedel, Pactrick Guio, Olivier Hainaut, Robert Hargreaves, Peter H. Hauschildt, Kevin Heng, David Heyrovsky, Ricardo Hueso, Pat Irwin, Lisa Kaltenegger, Patrick Kervella, David Kipping, Geza Kovacs, Antonino La Barbera, Helmut Lammer, Emmanuel Lellouch, Giuseppe Leto, Mercedes Lopez Morales, Miguel A. Lopez Valverde, Manuel Lopez-Puertas, Christophe Lovi, Antonio Maggio, Jean-Pierre Maillard, Jesus Maldonado Prado, Jean-Baptiste Marquette, Francisco J. Martin-Torres, Pierre Maxted, Steve Miller, Sergio Molinari, David Montes, Amaya Moro-Martin, Olivier Mousis, Napoléon Nguyen Tuong, Richard Nelson, Glenn S. Orton, Eric Pantin, Enzo Pascale, Stefano Pezzuto, Ennio Poretti, Raman Prinja, Loredana Prisinzano, Jean-Michel Réess, Ansgar Reiners, Benjamin Samuel, Jorge Sanz Forcada, Dimitar Sasselov, Giorgio Savini, Bruno Sicardy, Alan Smith, Lars Stixrude, Giovanni Strazzulla, Gautam Vasisht, Sandrine Vinatier, Serena Viti, Ingo Waldmann, Glenn J. White, Thomas Widemann, Roger Yelle, Yuk Yung, Sergey Yurchenko
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- Journal:
- Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union / Volume 6 / Issue S276 / October 2010
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 10 November 2011, pp. 359-370
- Print publication:
- October 2010
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The science of extra-solar planets is one of the most rapidly changing areas of astrophysics and since 1995 the number of planets known has increased by almost two orders of magnitude. A combination of ground-based surveys and dedicated space missions has resulted in 560-plus planets being detected, and over 1200 that await confirmation. NASA's Kepler mission has opened up the possibility of discovering Earth-like planets in the habitable zone around some of the 100,000 stars it is surveying during its 3 to 4-year lifetime. The new ESA's Gaia mission is expected to discover thousands of new planets around stars within 200 parsecs of the Sun. The key challenge now is moving on from discovery, important though that remains, to characterisation: what are these planets actually like, and why are they as they are?
In the past ten years, we have learned how to obtain the first spectra of exoplanets using transit transmission and emission spectroscopy. With the high stability of Spitzer, Hubble, and large ground-based telescopes the spectra of bright close-in massive planets can be obtained and species like water vapour, methane, carbon monoxide and dioxide have been detected. With transit science came the first tangible remote sensing of these planetary bodies and so one can start to extrapolate from what has been learnt from Solar System probes to what one might plan to learn about their faraway siblings. As we learn more about the atmospheres, surfaces and near-surfaces of these remote bodies, we will begin to build up a clearer picture of their construction, history and suitability for life.
The Exoplanet Characterisation Observatory, EChO, will be the first dedicated mission to investigate the physics and chemistry of Exoplanetary Atmospheres. By characterising spectroscopically more bodies in different environments we will take detailed planetology out of the Solar System and into the Galaxy as a whole.
EChO has now been selected by the European Space Agency to be assessed as one of four M3 mission candidates.