Objective: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score has been recommended for triage during a mass influx of critically ill patients, but it requires laboratory measurement of 4 parameters, which may be impractical with constrained resources. We hypothesized that a modified SOFA (MSOFA) score that requires only 1 laboratory measurement would predict patient outcome as effectively as the SOFA score.

Methods: After a retrospective derivation in a prospective observational study in a 24-bed medical, surgical, and trauma intensive care unit, we determined serial SOFA and MSOFA scores on all patients admitted during the 2008 calendar year and compared the ability to predict mortality and the need for mechanical ventilation.

Results: A total of 1770 patients (56% male patients) with a 30-day mortality of 10.5% were included in the study. Day 1 SOFA and MSOFA scores performed equally well at predicting mortality with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.81-.85) and 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.82-.85), respectively (P = .33 for comparison). Day 3 SOFA and MSOFA predicted mortality for the 828 patients remaining in the intensive care unit with an AUC of 0.78 and 0.79, respectively. Day 5 scores performed less well at predicting mortality. Day 1 SOFA and MSOFA predicted the need for mechanical ventilation on day 3, with an AUC of 0.83 and 0.82, respectively. Mortality for the highest category of SOFA and MSOFA score (>11 points) was 53% and 58%, respectively.

Conclusions: The MSOFA predicts mortality as well as the SOFA and is easier to implement in resource-constrained settings, but using either score as a triage tool would exclude many patients who would otherwise survive.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:277-284)

Objective: The supply and distribution of mechanical ventilation capacity is of profound importance for planning for severe public health emergencies. However, the capability of US health systems to provide mechanical ventilation for children and adults remains poorly quantified. The objective of this study was to determine the quantity of adult and pediatric mechanical ventilators at US acute care hospitals.

Methods: A total of 5752 US acute care hospitals included in the 2007 American Hospital Association database were surveyed. We measured the quantities of mechanical ventilators and their features.

Results: Responding to the survey were 4305 (74.8%) hospitals, which accounted for 83.8% of US intensive care unit beds. Of the 52 118 full-feature mechanical ventilators owned by respondent hospitals, 24 204 (46.4%) are pediatric/neonatal capable. Accounting for nonrespondents, we estimate that there are 62 188 full-feature mechanical ventilators owned by US acute care hospitals. The median number of full-feature mechanical ventilators per 100 000 population for individual states is 19.7 (interquartile ratio 17.2–23.1), ranging from 11.9 to 77.6. The median number of pediatric-capable device full-feature mechanical ventilators per 100 000 population younger than 14 years old is 52.3 (interquartile ratio 43.1–63.9) and the range across states is 22.1 to 206.2. In addition, respondent hospitals reported owning 82 755 ventilators other than full-feature mechanical ventilators; we estimate that there are 98 738 devices other than full-feature ventilators at all of the US acute care hospitals.

Conclusions: The number of mechanical ventilators per US population exceeds those reported by other developed countries, but there is wide variation across states in the population-adjusted supply. There are considerably more pediatric-capable ventilators than there are for adults only on a population-adjusted basis.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:199-206)

Objective: The paucity of evidence and wide variation among communities creates challenges for developing congressionally mandated national performance standards for public health preparedness. Using countermeasure dispensing as an example, we present an approach for developing standards that balances national uniformity and local flexibility, consistent with the quality of evidence available.

Methods: We used multiple methods, including a survey of community practices, mathematical modeling, and expert panel discussion.

Results: The article presents recommended dispensing standards, along with a general framework that can be used to analyze tradeoffs involved in developing other preparedness standards.

Conclusions: Standards can be developed using existing evidence, but would be helped immensely by a stronger evidence base.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:285-290)

Background: Over 160 000 children were displaced from their homes after Hurricane Katrina. Tens of thousands of these children experienced the ongoing chaos and uncertainty of displacement and transiency, as well as significant social disruptions in their lives. The objectives of this study were to estimate the long-term mental health effects of such exposure among children, and to elucidate the systemic pathways through which the disaster effect operates.

Methods: The prevalence of serious emotional disturbance was assessed among 283 school-aged children in Louisiana and Mississippi. These children are part of the Gulf Coast Child & Family Health Study, involving a longitudinal cohort of 1079 randomly sampled households in the two states, encompassing a total of 427 children, who have been interviewed in 4 annual waves of data collection since January 2006. The majority of data for this analysis was drawn from the fourth round of data.

Results: Although access to medical care for children has expanded considerably since 2005 in the region affected by Hurricane Katrina, more than 37% of children have received a clinical mental health diagnosis of depression, anxiety, or behavior disorder, according to parent reports. Children exposed to Hurricane Katrina were nearly 5 times as likely as a pre-Katrina cohort to exhibit serious emotional disturbance. Path analyses confirm the roles played by neighborhood social disorder, household stressors, and parental limitations on children's emotional and behavioral functioning.

Conclusions: Children and youth are particularly vulnerable to the effects of disasters. They have limited capacity to independently mobilize resources to help them adapt to stressful postdisaster circumstances, and are instead dependent upon others to make choices that will influence their household, neighborhood, school, and larger social environment. Children's mental health recovery in a postdisaster setting can serve as a bellwether indicator of successful recovery or as a lagging indicator of system dysfunction and failed recovery.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:S17-S27)

Background: Agents of opportunity (AO) are potentially harmful biological, chemical, radiological, and pharmaceutical substances commonly used for health care delivery and research. AOs are present in all academic medical centers (AMC), creating vulnerability in the health care sector; AO attributes and dissemination methods likely predict risk; and AMCs are inadequately secured against a purposeful AO dissemination, with limited budgets and competing priorities. We explored health care workers' perceptions of AMC security and the impact of those perceptions on AO risk.

Methods: Qualitative methods (survey, interviews, and workshops) were used to collect opinions from staff working in a medical school and 4 AMC-affiliated hospitals concerning AOs and the risk to hospital infrastructure associated with their uncontrolled presence. Secondary to this goal, staff perception concerning security, or opinions about security behaviors of others, were extracted, analyzed, and grouped into themes.

Results: We provide a framework for depicting the interaction of staff behavior and access control engineering, including the tendency of staff to “defeat” inconvenient access controls. In addition, 8 security themes emerged: staff security behavior is a significant source of AO risk; the wide range of opinions about “open” front-door policies among AMC staff illustrates a disparity of perceptions about the need for security; interviewees expressed profound skepticism concerning the effectiveness of front-door access controls; an AO risk assessment requires reconsideration of the security levels historically assigned to areas such as the loading dock and central distribution sites, where many AOs are delivered and may remain unattended for substantial periods of time; researchers' view of AMC security is influenced by the ongoing debate within the scientific community about the wisdom of engaging in bioterrorism research; there was no agreement about which areas of the AMC should be subject to stronger access controls; security personnel play dual roles of security and customer service, creating the negative perception that neither role is done well; and budget was described as an important factor in explaining the state of security controls.

Conclusions: We determined that AMCs seeking to reduce AO risk should assess their institutionally unique AO risks, understand staff security perceptions, and install access controls that are responsive to the staff's tendency to defeat them. The development of AO attribute fact sheets is desirable for AO risk assessment; new funding and administrative or legislative tools to improve AMC security are required; and security practices and methods that are convenient and effective should be engineered.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:291-299)

Objectives: During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, Argentina's Hospital Nacional Profesor Alejandro Posadas, a referral center in the capital province of Buenos Aires, treated a large urban patient population. Beginning in April, after severe influenza had been reported in North America but before any suspected cases of H1N1 had been reported in Argentina, the authors formed a pandemic planning committee to direct our hospital's response. An important strategy of the management team was to create a single daily monitoring tool that could integrate multiple information sources. We describe our pandemic planning strategy so that it may serve as a template for other hospitals.

Methods: We describe our integrated data management system and the indicators it measured. We also describe the iterative process used to develop these tools and the current versions we use in surveillance for possible new waves of pandemic influenza.

Results: We present 3 examples of strategic decision making applied to data from our integrated information system. Daily pandemic surveillance data motivated the planning committee to reallocate hospital resources to care for patients during the peak pandemic period.

Conclusions: This report illustrates the importance of pandemic planning and advanced integrated information tools for management of a health care facility during a pandemic.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:207-212)

Background: The study was designed to examine the 30- and 90-day mortality and hospitalization rates among nursing facility (NF) residents in the affected areas of Louisiana and Mississippi following Hurricane Katrina and to assess the rate of significant posthurricane functional decline.

Methods: A secondary data analysis was conducted using Medicare claims merged with NF resident data from the Minimum Data Set. Thirty- and 90-day mortality and hospitalization rates for long-stay (>90 days) residents residing in 141 at-risk NFs during Hurricane Katrina were compared to rates for residents residing at the same facilities during the same time period in prior nonhurricane years (2003 and 2004). Functional decline was assessed as a 4+ drop in function using a 28-point Minimum Data Set Activities of Daily Living Scale.

Results: There were statistically significant differences (all P < .0001) in mortality, hospitalization, and functional decline among residents exposed to Hurricane Katrina. At 30 days, the mortality rate was 3.88% among the exposed cohort compared with 2.10% and 2.28% for residents in 2003 and 2004, respectively. The 90-day mortality rate was 9.27% compared with 6.71% and 6.31%, respectively. These mortality differences translated into an additional 148 deaths at 30 days and 230 deaths at 90 days. The 30-day hospitalization rate was 9.87% compared with 7.21% and 7.53%, respectively. The 90-day hospitalization rate was 20.39% compared with 18.61% and 17.82%, respectively. Finally, the rate of significant functional decline among survivors was 6.77% compared with 5.81% in 2003 and 5.10% in 2004.

Conclusions: NF residents experienced a significant increase in mortality, hospitalization, and functional decline during Hurricane Katrina.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:S28-S32)

Objective: Because most bioterrorist disease agents are zoonotic, veterinarians are important partners in preparedness. New York State is a prime port of entry and has a network of health and emergency management agencies for response. However, knowledge and participation by veterinarians has not yet been assessed.

Methods: A 25-question survey was mailed out to approximately half (1832) of the veterinarians licensed in New York State. Participants were asked about past emergency preparedness training, likelihood of participating in future training, preferred training topics, and their relationship with their local health department (LHD).

Results: Completed questionnaires were received from 529 veterinarians (29%). Most (83%) reported that they were likely to participate in emergency preparedness training, but in the past 2 years, only 14% received training in zoonotic disease outbreaks and 12% in emergency preparedness. Only 21% reported having a relationship with their LHD, but 48% were interested in having one. Lack of time was the biggest obstacle to involvement with the LHD (40%). Most (69%) of those responding to the survey said they would participate in training once per year or more often.

Conclusions: Inducements, such as earning continuing education credits, or the development of active networks of preparedness organizations, state and local health departments, and veterinary schools are needed to deliver emergency preparedness training and information efficiently to veterinarians.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:300-305)

Objectives: The Medical Reserve Corps (MRC) is a national network of community-based units created to promote the local identification, recruitment, training, and activation of volunteers to assist local health departments in public health activities. This study aimed to develop a toolkit for MRC coordinators to assess and monitor volunteer units' performance and identify barriers limiting volunteerism.

Methods: In 2008 and 2009, MRC volunteers asked to participate in influenza clinics were surveyed in 7 different locations throughout the United States. Two survey instruments were used to assess the performance of the volunteers who were able to participate, the specific barriers that prevented some volunteers from participating, and the overall attitudes of those who participated and those who did not. Validity and reliability of the instruments were assessed through the use of factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha.

Results: Two survey instruments were developed: the Volunteer Self-Assessment Questionnaire and the Barriers to Volunteering Questionnaire. Data were collected from a total of 1059 subjects, 758 participated in the influenza clinics and 301 were unable to attend. Data from the 2 instruments were determined to be suitable for factor analysis. Factor solutions and inter-item correlations supported the hypothesized domain structure for both survey questionnaires. Results on volunteers' performance were consistent with observations of both local health departments' staff and external observers.

Conclusions: The survey instruments developed for this study appear to be valid and reliable means to assess the performance and attitudes of MRC volunteers and barriers to their participation. This study found these instruments to have face and content validity and practicality. MRC coordinators can use these questionnaires to monitor their ability to engage volunteers in public health activities.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:213-219)

Background: The impact of a natural disaster on self-care and health care delivery has been well documented. The objective of the study was to document the recovery pattern from the impact of a natural disaster such as Hurricane Katrina on clinical and biochemical measures of diabetes and its comorbidities.

Methods: Patients were selected from Tulane University Hospital and Clinic, Southeast Louisiana Veterans Health Care System, and the Medical Center of Louisiana at New Orleans. Adults with diabetes and A1c measurement 6 months before (pre-K) Hurricane Katrina (February 28, 2005–August 27, 2005) and 6 to 16 months after (post-K) Katrina (March 1, 2006–December 31, 2006) were identified within the 3 facilities. Follow-up data (January 1, 2007–December 31, 2007) were 1 year after the first post-K visit. The outcome measures were hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP), and lipids (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL], triglycerides).

Results: Averaged across the 3 facilities, the parameters significantly different in the follow-up period compared with pre- and post-K were HbA1c (P = .04), HDL, and systolic and diastolic BP (P < .0001). Parameters with significantly different patterns of change in the 3 facilities over time were HbA1c, HDL, systolic and diastolic BP (P < .0001), and low-density lipoprotein (P < .01).

Conclusions: Our results suggest that a variety of clinical and biochemical parameters related to diabetes and its comorbidities affected by natural disaster have varied the rate of recovery to predisaster levels.

(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:S33-S38)