Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]) was detected in humans during the last week of December 2019 at Wuhan city in China, and caused 24 554 cases in 27 countries and territories as of 5 February 2020. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of transmission of 2019-nCoV through human passenger air flight from four major cities of China (Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) to the passengers' destination countries. We extracted the weekly simulated passengers' end destination data for the period of 1–31 January 2020 from FLIRT, an online air travel dataset that uses information from 800 airlines to show the direct flight and passengers' end destination. We estimated a risk index of 2019-nCoV transmission based on the number of travellers to destination countries, weighted by the number of confirmed cases of the departed city reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). We ranked each country based on the risk index in four quantiles (4th quantile being the highest risk and 1st quantile being the lowest risk). During the period, 388 287 passengers were destined for 1297 airports in 168 countries or territories across the world. The risk index of 2019-nCoV among the countries had a very high correlation with the WHO-reported confirmed cases (0.97). According to our risk score classification, of the countries that reported at least one Coronavirus-infected pneumonia (COVID-19) case as of 5 February 2020, 24 countries were in the 4th quantile of the risk index, two in the 3rd quantile, one in the 2nd quantile and none in the 1st quantile. Outside China, countries with a higher risk of 2019-nCoV transmission are Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Canada and the USA, all of which reported at least one case. In pan-Europe, UK, France, Russia, Germany and Italy; in North America, USA and Canada; in Oceania, Australia had high risk, all of them reported at least one case. In Africa and South America, the risk of transmission is very low with Ethiopia, South Africa, Egypt, Mauritius and Brazil showing a similar risk of transmission compared to the risk of any of the countries where at least one case is detected. The risk of transmission on 31 January 2020 was very high in neighbouring Asian countries, followed by Europe (UK, France, Russia and Germany), Oceania (Australia) and North America (USA and Canada). Increased public health response including early case recognition, isolation of identified case, contract tracing and targeted airport screening, public awareness and vigilance of health workers will help mitigate the force of further spread to naïve countries.

After the mass campaign of Measles and Rubella vaccination in 2003 in Iran, the cases of measles and rubella infection decreased but still, the cases of rash and fever were reported. It is worth noting that some other viral infections show signs similar to measles and rubella such as some arboviruses. Considering the epidemic outbreak of arbovirus infections in countries neighbouring Iran, we performed this study to estimate the possibility of chikungunya and dengue fever among measles and rubella IgM negative patients presenting with rash and fever from December 2016 to November 2017 in the National Measles Laboratory at Tehran University of Medical Sciences. Serum samples were selected at random from patients from eight provinces. The presence of DENV IgM and CHIKV IgM was examined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Of the 1306 sera tested, 210 were CHIKV seropositive and 82 were dengue seropositive. Statistical analysis demonstrated a significant increase in the CHIKV IgM antibody seropositivity rate in Kerman (OR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.10–3.92; P = 0.024) and Fars (OR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.06–2.93; P = 0.027). The DENV and CHIKV seropositivity rate in summer is higher than in other seasons (P < 0.01). Our seropositive samples suggest possible CHIKV and DENV infection in Iran. It is likely that these viruses are circulating in Iran and there is a need to study vector carriage of these two viruses.

Between 11–13 December 2018, local public health authorities in the West Midlands, England were alerted to 34 reports of diarrhoea with abdominal cramps. Symptom onset was ~10 h after diners ate Christmas meals at a restaurant between 7–9 December 2018. A retrospective case-control study, environmental and microbiological investigations were undertaken to determine the source and control the outbreak. An analytical study was undertaken with odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Forty persons were recruited to the analytical study (28/40 cases). Multivariable analysis found that leeks in cheese sauce was the only item associated with illness (aOR 51.1; 95% CI 4.13–2492.1). Environmental investigations identified significant lapses in food safety, including lapses in temperature control during cooking and hot holding, likely cross-contamination between raw and cooked foods and the reuse of leftover cheese sauce for the next day's service. No food samples were taken during the exposure period. Two faecal samples were positive for Clostridium perfringens with one confirming the enterotoxigenic gene. Cheese sauce is an unusual vehicle for the organism and the first time this has been reported in England.

In recent years, outbreaks of hand–foot–mouth disease (HFMD) in China, Singapore and other Western Pacific Region, involving millions of children, have become a big threat to public health. This study aimed to quantitatively assess all qualified studies and identify the risk factors for HFMD death. A systematic search of the databases PubMed, Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library was performed. Study heterogeneity and publication bias were estimated. Seven case–control studies involving 1641 participants (634 died and 1007 survived) were included in the meta-analysis. Human enterovirus 71 infection, male, age ⩽3 years, vomiting, cyanosis, convulsion, duration of fever ⩾3 days, atypical rashes and abdominal distention were not significantly related to HFMD death (P ⩽ 0.05). Lethargy (odds ratio (OR) = 6.62; 95% CI 3.61–12.14; I2 = 0%; P < 0.0001), pneumonoedema/pneumorrhagia (OR = 4.09; 95% CI 2.44–6.87; I2 = 0%; P < 0.0001), seizures (OR = 6.85; 95% CI 2.37–19.74; I2 = 0%; P = 0.0004), dyspnoea (OR = 8.24; 95% CI 2.05–33.19; I2 = 83%; P = 0.003) and coma (OR = 3.76; 95% CI 1.85–7.67; I2 = 0%; P = 0.0003) were significantly associated with HFMD death, which were risk factors for HFMD death.

This retrospective study highlights the degree of losses and time-course through which the 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in Ghana were managed. A total of 102 760 birds from 35 farms across five regions in Ghana included in this study were affected. Out of this, 89.3% was from the Greater Accra region. Majority of the birds were culled (94.2%). Adult layers were most affected and destroyed (64.0%), followed by broilers (13.7%). Event initiation to reporting averaged 7.7 ± 1.3 days (range: 1–30 days). Laboratory confirmation to depopulation of birds averaged 2.2 ± 0.5 (0–15) days while depopulation to disinfection took 2.2 ± 0.7 (0–20) days. Overall, some farms took as long as 30 days to report the outbreak to the authorities, 15 days from confirmation to depopulation and 20 days from depopulation to disinfection. On average, outbreak management lasted 12.3 (2–43) days from event initiation to depopulation. The study reveals a significant number of avian losses and delays in HPAI reporting and management by the authorities in Ghana during the 2015 outbreak. This poses a high risk of spread to other farms and a threat to public health. Awareness creation for poultry farmers is necessary for early reporting, while further study is required to set thresholds for the management of such outbreaks by veterinary departments.

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has high prevalence around the world, with serious consequences for children. Due to the long survival period of HFMD virus in ambient air, air pollutants may play a critical role in HFMD epidemics. We collected data on daily cases of HFMD among children aged 0–14 years in Ningbo City between 2014 and 2016. Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to assess the effects of particulate matter (PM2.5), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) on the daily incidence of HFMD among children, with analyses stratified by gender and age. Compared with moderate levels of air pollution, high SO2 levels had a relative risk (RR) of 2.32 (95% CI 1.42–3.79) and high NO2 levels had a RR of 2.01 (95% CI 1.22–3.31). The RR of O3 was 2.12 (95% CI 1.47–3.05) and that of PM2.5 was 0.77 (95% CI 0.64–0.92) at moderate levels of air pollution. Specifically, high levels of SO2 and NO2 had RRs of 2.39 (95% CI 1.44–3.96) and 2.02 (95% CI 1.21–3.39), respectively, among 0–4-year-old children, while high O3 had an RR of 2.31 (95% CI 1.09–4.89) among 5–14-year-old children. Our findings suggest significant associations of high SO2 and NO2 levels and moderate O3 levels in HFMD epidemics, and also indicate that air pollution causes lagged effects on HFMD epidemics. Our study provides practical and useful data for targeted prevention and control of HMFD based on environmental evidence.

The relative contribution of imported vs. locally acquired infections to urban malaria burden remains largely unexplored in Latin America, the most urbanised region in the developing world. Here we use a simple molecular epidemiology framework to examine the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax in Mâncio Lima, the Amazonian municipality with the highest malaria incidence rate in Brazil. We prospectively genotyped 177 P. vivax infections diagnosed in urban residents between June 2014 and July 2015 and showed that local parasites are structured into several lineages of closely related microsatellite haplotypes, with the largest genetic cluster comprising 32% of all infections. These findings are very unlikely under the hypothesis of multiple independent imports of parasite strains from the rural surroundings. Instead, the presence of an endemic near-clonal parasite lineage circulating over 13 consecutive months is consistent with a local P. vivax transmission chain in the town, with major implications for malaria elimination efforts in this and similar urban environments across the Amazon.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common pathogen associated with acute lower respiratory tract infections in young children. RSV is also a major viral pathogen causing severe lung disease in the adult population, particularly among the elderly. We conducted a review of adult RSV studies published from January 1970 to February 2017 to determine the burden of disease among adults worldwide. There were no restrictions on health care setting or definition of RSV infection. A total of 1530 published studies were identified, 95 of which were included in this review. The incidence rates of hospitalised RSV acute respiratory tract infection (ARI) in adults >65 years old ranged from 7.3 to 13.0/105 population in Africa and Asia and from 190 to 254/105 population in the USA. Higher incidence rates (195–1790/105 population) were observed in adults ≥50 years old for outpatient or emergency visits in the USA. Of all ARI patients, RSV accounted for 1–10% in adults and 2–14% in patients with chronic diseases or transplantation. Given the limitations in the existing data, significant efforts should be made to generate evidence on the burden of RSV infections in adults and to estimate the potential impact of future preventive interventions.

A new fast-growing mycobacterium, designated strain QGD101T, was isolated from the sputum of an 84-year-old man suspected of tuberculosis in Wuhan Medical Treatment Center, Hubei, China. This strain was a gram-staining-negative, aerobic, non-spore-forming and catalase-positive bacterium, which was further identified as the NTM by PNB and TCH tests. The moxifloxacin and levofloxacin exhibited strong suppressing function against QGD101T with MIC values of 0.06 and 0.125 µg/ml after drug susceptibility testing of six main antimicrobial agents on mycobacteria. Based on the sequence analysis of 16S rRNA, rpoB, hsp65 and 16S-23S rRNA internal transcribed spacer, the strain QGD101T could not be identified to a species level. Mycobacterium moriokaense ATCC43059T that shared the highest 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity (98%) with strain QGD101T was actually different in genomes average nucleotide identity (78.74%). In addition, the major cellular fatty acids of QGD101T were determined as C18:1ω9c, C16:0 and C18:2ω6c. The DNA G + C content was 64.9% measured by high performance liquid chromatography. Therefore, the phenotypic and genotypic characterisation of this strain led us to the conclusion that it represents a novel species of mycobacteria, for which the name Mycobacterium hubeiense sp. nov. (type strain QGD101T = CCTCCAA 2017003T = KCTC39927T) was proposed. Thus, the results of this study are very significant for the clinical diagnosis of tuberculosis and future personalised medicine.

The aim of this study was to evaluate long-term survival and risk factors associated with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patient survival in Central China. Between December 2006 and June 2011, incident and retreatment adult MDR-TB patients were enrolled in the present study. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to evaluate the risk factors affecting survival. The total follow-up period was 270 person-years (PY) for 356 MDR-TB cases in Wuhan. Of the 356 cases, 103 patients died, yielding an average case fatality rate of 381.2 per 1000 TB patients per year. Using adjusted Cox regression analysis, older age (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) >3.0 starting from 30 years) and low education level (primary and middle school; aHR 1.67 (95% CI 1.01–2.77)) were independently associated with lower survival. Diabetes mellitus profoundly affected the survival of MDR-TB patients (aHR 1.95 (95% CI 1.30–2.93)). Our data demonstrate that coexistent diabetes significantly and negatively impacted MDR-TB patient survival. In addition, MDR-TB patients aged 60 years or older exhibited a greater risk of mortality during follow-up. Our findings emphasise that MDR-TB patients with comorbidities that increase their risk of death require additional medical interventions to reduce mortality.

In June 2017, an outbreak of Salmonella Kottbus infection was suspected in Germany. We investigated the outbreak with whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and a case–control study. Forty-six isolates from 69 cases were subtyped. Three WGS clusters were identified: cluster 1 (n = 36), cluster 2 (n = 5) and cluster 3 (n = 3). Compared to controls, cluster 1 cases more frequently consumed raw smoked ham (odds ratio (OR) 10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2–88) bought at supermarket chain X (OR 36, 95% CI 4–356; 9/10 consumed ham Y). All four cluster 2 cases interviewed had consumed quail eggs. Timely WGS was invaluable in distinguishing concurrent outbreaks of a rare Salmonella serotype.

Norovirus (NoV) infections occur very frequently yet are rarely diagnosed. In Denmark, NoV infections are not under surveillance. We aimed to collect and describe existing laboratory-based NoV data. National NoV laboratory data were collected for 2011–2018, including information on patient identification number, age and sex, requesting physician, analysis date and result. We defined positive patient-episodes by using a 30-day time window and performed descriptive and time series analysis. Diagnostic methods used were assessed through a survey. We identified 15 809 patient-episodes (11%) out of 142 648 tested patients with an increasing trend, 9366 in 2011 vs. 32 260 in 2018. This corresponded with a gradual introduction of polymerase chain reaction analysis in laboratories. The highest positivity rate was in patients aged <5 years (15%) or >85 years (17%). There was a large difference in test performance over five Danish geographical regions and a marked seasonal variation with peaks from December to February. This is the first analysis of national NoV laboratory data in Denmark. A future laboratory-based surveillance system may benefit public health measures by describing trend, burden and severity of seasons and possibly pinpoint hospital outbreaks.

Accurate methods for determining the duration of HIV infection at the individual level are valuable in many settings, including many critical research studies and in clinical practice (especially for acute infection). Since first published in 2003, the ‘Fiebig staging system’ has been used as the primary way of classifying early HIV infection into five sequential stages based on HIV test result patterns in newly diagnosed individuals. However, Fiebig stages can only be assigned to individuals who produce both a negative and a positive test result on the same day, on specific pairs of tests of varying ‘sensitivity’. Further, in the past 16 years HIV-testing technology has evolved substantially, and three of the five key assays used to define Fiebig stages are no longer widely used. To address these limitations, we developed an improved and more general framework for estimating the duration of HIV infection by interpreting any combination of diagnostic test results, whether obtained on single or multiple days, into an estimated date of detectable infection, or EDDI. A key advantage of the EDDI method over Fiebig staging is that it allows for the generation of a point estimate, as well as an associated credibility interval for the date of first detectable infection, for any person who has at least one positive and one negative HIV test of any kind. The tests do not have to be run on the same day; they do not have to be run during the acute phase of infection and the method does not rely on any special pairing of tests to define ‘stages’ of infection. The size of the interval surrounding the EDDI (and therefore the precision of the estimate itself) depends largely on the length of time between negative and positive tests. The EDDI approach is also flexible, seamlessly incorporating any assay for which there is a reasonable diagnostic delay estimate. An open-source, free online tool includes a user-updatable curated database of published diagnostic delays. HIV diagnostics have evolved tremendously since that original publication more than 15 years ago, and it is time to similarly evolve the methods used to estimate timing of infection. The EDDI method is a flexible and rigorous way to estimate the timing of HIV infection in a continuously evolving diagnostic landscape.

Almost all cases of human listeriosis are foodborne, however the proportion where specific exposures are identified is small. Between 1981 and 2015, 5252 human listeriosis cases were reported in England and Wales. The purpose of this study was to summarise data where consumption of specific foods was identified with transmission and these comprised 11 sporadic cases and 17 outbreaks. There was a single outbreak in the community of 378 cases (7% of the total) which was associated with pâté consumption and 112 cases (2% of the total) attributed to specific foods in all the other incidents. The proportion of food-attributed cases increased during this study with improvements in typing methods for Listeria monocytogenes. Ten incidents (one sporadic case and nine outbreaks of 2–9 cases over 4 days to 32 months) occurred in hospitals: all were associated with the consumption of pre-prepared sandwiches. The 18 community incidents comprised eight outbreaks (seven of between 3 and 17 cases) and 10 sporadic cases: food of animal origin was implicated in 16 of the incidents (sliced or potted meats, pork pies, pâté, liver, chicken, crab-meat, butter and soft cheese) and food of non-animal origin in the remaining two (olives and vegetable rennet).

Prospective, population-based surveillance to systematically ascertain exposures to food production animals or their environments among Minnesota residents with sporadic, domestically acquired, laboratory-confirmed enteric zoonotic pathogen infections was conducted from 2012 through 2016. Twenty-three percent (n = 1708) of the 7560 enteric disease cases in the study reported an animal agriculture exposure in their incubation period, including 60% (344/571) of Cryptosporidium parvum cases, 28% (934/3391) of Campylobacter cases, 22% (85/383) of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 cases, 16% (83/521) of non-O157 STEC cases, 10% (253/2575) of non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica cases and 8% (9/119) of Yersinia enterocolitica cases. Living and/or working on a farm accounted for 61% of cases with an agricultural exposure, followed by visiting a private farm (29% of cases) and visiting a public animal agriculture venue (10% of cases). Cattle were the most common animal type in agricultural exposures, reported by 72% of cases. The estimated cumulative incidence of zoonotic enteric infections for people who live and/or work on farms with food production animals in Minnesota during 2012–2016 was 147 per 10 000 population, vs. 18.5 per 10 000 for other Minnesotans. The burden of enteric zoonoses among people with animal agriculture exposures appears to be far greater than previously appreciated.

Varicella is an acute respiratory infectious diseases, with high transmissibility and quick dissemination. In this study, an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) dynamic model was established to explore the optimal prevention and control measures according to the epidemiological characteristics about varicella outbreak in a school in a central city of China. Berkeley Madonna 8.3.18 and Microsoft Office Excel 2010 software were employed for the model simulation and data management, respectively. The result showed that the simulated result of SEIR model agreed well with the reported data when β (infected rate) equal to 0.067. Models showed that the cumulative number of cases was only 13 when isolation adopted when the infected individuals were identified (assuming isolation rate was up to 100%); the cumulative number of cases was only two and the TAR (total attack rate) was 0.56% when the vaccination coefficient reached 50%. The cumulative number of cases did not change significantly with the change of efficiency of ventilation and disinfection, but the peak time was delayed; when δ (vaccination coefficient) = 0.1, m (ventilation efficiency) = 0.7 or δ = 0.2, m = 0.5 or δ = 0.3, m = 0.1 or δ = 0.4 and above, the cumulative number of cases would reduce to one case and TAR would reduce to 0.28% with combined interventions. Varicella outbreak in school could be controlled through strict isolation or vaccination singly; combined interventions have been adopted when the vaccination coefficient was low.

This study aimed at comparing the factors associated with the natural progression between typical progressors (TPs) and rapid progressors (RPs) in HIV-infected individuals. A retrospective study was conducted on 2095 eligible HIV-infected individuals from 1995 to 2016 in a high-risk area of Henan Province, China. Propensity score matching was used to balance covariates, and the conditional logistic regression analyses were performed to explore the factors of natural disease progression among HIV infectors. A total of 379 pairs of RPs and TPs were matched. The standardised difference values of all covariates were less than 10%. HIV-infected individuals transmitted through sexual transmission (odds ratio (OR) 0.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36–0.85) were more likely to progress to AIDS compared with those infected through contaminated blood. Older age at diagnosis of HIV-infected individuals (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.58–0.89) exhibited a faster progression to AIDS. HIV-infected individuals identified through a unique survey (OR 7.01, 95% CI 2.99–16.44) were less likely to progress to AIDS compared with those identified through medical institutions. HIV-infected individuals who had higher baseline CD4+T cell counts (OR 3.37, 95% CI 2.59–4.38) had a slower progression to AIDS. These findings provide evidence for natural disease progression from HIV to AIDS between TPs and RPs.

Hepatitis A is a mandatory notifiable disease in Greece. Here, we present the epidemiological data for 2009–2018 and the results of outbreak investigations performed, and discuss future public health priorities.

Overall, 1193 cases were reported; 320 migrants/refugees, 240 Roma, 112 travellers and 521 from the general population. The median age of the affected general population (37 years) had an increasing trend (from 30.8 years in 2009 to 40.5 in 2018, P < 0.001) and was significantly higher than that among Roma and migrants (7 and 8 years, respectively, P < 0.001). Twenty-two cases (2.2%) were unvaccinated patients with a chronic liver disease. Fifty clusters with 2–12 cases each were recorded; 44 were attributed to person-to-person transmission and six to food consumption. Three outbreaks accounting for 32.3% of the total number of recorded cases were identified; in 2013 among Roma (112 cases), in 2016 among refugees (188 cases) and in 2017 among men having sex with men (96 cases; 33 of them (34.4%) HIV-positive). The epidemiological data depict that improving living conditions and vaccination coverage of deprived populations, and informing adults on the disease focusing at faecal–oral transmission during sexual intercourse and travel should be the future public health priorities.

Tuberculosis (TB) is generally considered a disease that principally afflicts the low-income segments of a population. In the Nanshan District of Shenzhen, China, with the economic transformation and a new Headquarters Economy (HE) emerging, there are now more cases in office workers than in manufacturing workers. To illustrate this trend, we describe a small TB outbreak in an office building located in the centre of the rapidly growing HE district. Two active pulmonary tuberculosis cases were found in workers who shared an office, and whole genome sequencing showed that the genetic distance between the strains of the two cases was just one single nucleotide polymorphism, consistent with intra-office transmission. Investigation of 30 other workers in the same or adjacent offices with interviews, interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) and chest X-rays, identified one new TB case and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in 40.0% (12/30) of the contacts. The offices were under-ventilated. None of the IGRA positive, asymptomatic contacts agreed to receive treatment for LTBI, presumably due to TB stigma, and over the next 2 years 69.0% (20/29) of the contacts were lost to follow-up. Treatment for LTBI and stigma of TB remain challenges here. Office workers in the HE of rapidly economic developing areas should be targeted with increased vigilance by TB control programmes.

For outbreaks of gastrointestinal disease, rapid identification of the source is crucial to enable public health intervention and prevent further cases. Outbreak investigation comprises analyses of exposure information from cases and, if required, undertaking analytical epidemiological studies. Hypothesis generation has been reliant on empirical knowledge of exposures historically associated with a given pathogen. Epidemiology studies are resource-intensive and prone to bias, one of the reasons being the difficulties in recruiting appropriate controls. For this paper, the information from cases was compared against pre-defined background exposure information. As exemplars, three past outbreaks were used, one of common and two of rare exposures. Information from historical case trawling questionnaires was used to define background exposure having removed any exposures implicated with the outbreak. The case-background approach showed good sensitivity and specificity, identifying correctly all outbreak-related exposures. One additional exposure related to a retailer was identified and four food items where all cases had been exposed. In conclusion, the case-background method, a development of the case-case design, can be used to assist with hypothesis generation or when a case-control study may not be possible to carry out.