75 results
4 Evaluating Plasma GFAP for the Detection of Alzheimer’s Disease Dementia
- Madeline Ally, Henrik Zetterberg, Kaj Blennow, Nicholas J. Ashton, Thomas K. Karikari, Hugo Aparicio, Michael A. Sugarman, Brandon Frank, Yorghos Tripodis, Ann C. McKee, Thor D. Stein, Brett Martin, Joseph N. Palmisano, Eric G. Steinberg, Irene Simkina, Lindsay Farrer, Gyungah Jun, Katherine W. Turk, Andrew E. Budson, Maureen K. O’Connor, Rhoda Au, Wei Qiao Qiu, Lee E. Goldstein, Ronald Killiany, Neil W. Kowall, Robert A. Stern, Jesse Mez, Michael L. Alosco
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- Journal:
- Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society / Volume 29 / Issue s1 / November 2023
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 21 December 2023, pp. 408-409
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Blood-based biomarkers represent a scalable and accessible approach for the detection and monitoring of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Plasma phosphorylated tau (p-tau) and neurofilament light (NfL) are validated biomarkers for the detection of tau and neurodegenerative brain changes in AD, respectively. There is now emphasis to expand beyond these markers to detect and provide insight into the pathophysiological processes of AD. To this end, a reactive astrocytic marker, namely plasma glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), has been of interest. Yet, little is known about the relationship between plasma GFAP and AD. Here, we examined the association between plasma GFAP, diagnostic status, and neuropsychological test performance. Diagnostic accuracy of plasma GFAP was compared with plasma measures of p-tau181 and NfL.
Participants and Methods:This sample included 567 participants from the Boston University (BU) Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center (ADRC) Longitudinal Clinical Core Registry, including individuals with normal cognition (n=234), mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (n=180), and AD dementia (n=153). The sample included all participants who had a blood draw. Participants completed a comprehensive neuropsychological battery (sample sizes across tests varied due to missingness). Diagnoses were adjudicated during multidisciplinary diagnostic consensus conferences. Plasma samples were analyzed using the Simoa platform. Binary logistic regression analyses tested the association between GFAP levels and diagnostic status (i.e., cognitively impaired due to AD versus unimpaired), controlling for age, sex, race, education, and APOE e4 status. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from receiver operating characteristics (ROC) using predicted probabilities from binary logistic regression examined the ability of plasma GFAP to discriminate diagnostic groups compared with plasma p-tau181 and NfL. Linear regression models tested the association between plasma GFAP and neuropsychological test performance, accounting for the above covariates.
Results:The mean (SD) age of the sample was 74.34 (7.54), 319 (56.3%) were female, 75 (13.2%) were Black, and 223 (39.3%) were APOE e4 carriers. Higher GFAP concentrations were associated with increased odds for having cognitive impairment (GFAP z-score transformed: OR=2.233, 95% CI [1.609, 3.099], p<0.001; non-z-transformed: OR=1.004, 95% CI [1.002, 1.006], p<0.001). ROC analyses, comprising of GFAP and the above covariates, showed plasma GFAP discriminated the cognitively impaired from unimpaired (AUC=0.75) and was similar, but slightly superior, to plasma p-tau181 (AUC=0.74) and plasma NfL (AUC=0.74). A joint panel of the plasma markers had greatest discrimination accuracy (AUC=0.76). Linear regression analyses showed that higher GFAP levels were associated with worse performance on neuropsychological tests assessing global cognition, attention, executive functioning, episodic memory, and language abilities (ps<0.001) as well as higher CDR Sum of Boxes (p<0.001).
Conclusions:Higher plasma GFAP levels differentiated participants with cognitive impairment from those with normal cognition and were associated with worse performance on all neuropsychological tests assessed. GFAP had similar accuracy in detecting those with cognitive impairment compared with p-tau181 and NfL, however, a panel of all three biomarkers was optimal. These results support the utility of plasma GFAP in AD detection and suggest the pathological processes it represents might play an integral role in the pathogenesis of AD.
5 Antemortem Plasma GFAP Predicts Alzheimer’s Disease Neuropathological Changes
- Madeline Ally, Henrik Zetterberg, Kaj Blennow, Nicholas J. Ashton, Thomas K. Karikari, Hugo Aparicio, Michael A. Sugarman, Brandon Frank, Yorghos Tripodis, Brett Martin, Joseph N. Palmisano, Eric G. Steinberg, Irene Simkina, Lindsay Farrer, Gyungah Jun, Katherine W. Turk, Andrew E. Budson, Maureen K. O’Connor, Rhoda Au, Wei Qiao Qiu, Lee E. Goldstein, Ronald Killiany, Neil W. Kowall, Robert A. Stern, Jesse Mez, Bertran R. Huber, Ann C. McKee, Thor D. Stein, Michael L. Alosco
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- Journal:
- Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society / Volume 29 / Issue s1 / November 2023
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 21 December 2023, pp. 409-410
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Blood-based biomarkers offer a more feasible alternative to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) detection, management, and study of disease mechanisms than current in vivo measures. Given their novelty, these plasma biomarkers must be assessed against postmortem neuropathological outcomes for validation. Research has shown utility in plasma markers of the proposed AT(N) framework, however recent studies have stressed the importance of expanding this framework to include other pathways. There is promising data supporting the usefulness of plasma glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) in AD, but GFAP-to-autopsy studies are limited. Here, we tested the association between plasma GFAP and AD-related neuropathological outcomes in participants from the Boston University (BU) Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center (ADRC).
Participants and Methods:This sample included 45 participants from the BU ADRC who had a plasma sample within 5 years of death and donated their brain for neuropathological examination. Most recent plasma samples were analyzed using the Simoa platform. Neuropathological examinations followed the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center procedures and diagnostic criteria. The NIA-Reagan Institute criteria were used for the neuropathological diagnosis of AD. Measures of GFAP were log-transformed. Binary logistic regression analyses tested the association between GFAP and autopsy-confirmed AD status, as well as with semi-quantitative ratings of regional atrophy (none/mild versus moderate/severe) using binary logistic regression. Ordinal logistic regression analyses tested the association between plasma GFAP and Braak stage and CERAD neuritic plaque score. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from receiver operating characteristics (ROC) using predicted probabilities from binary logistic regression examined the ability of plasma GFAP to discriminate autopsy-confirmed AD status. All analyses controlled for sex, age at death, years between last blood draw and death, and APOE e4 status.
Results:Of the 45 brain donors, 29 (64.4%) had autopsy-confirmed AD. The mean (SD) age of the sample at the time of blood draw was 80.76 (8.58) and there were 2.80 (1.16) years between the last blood draw and death. The sample included 20 (44.4%) females, 41 (91.1%) were White, and 20 (44.4%) were APOE e4 carriers. Higher GFAP concentrations were associated with increased odds for having autopsy-confirmed AD (OR=14.12, 95% CI [2.00, 99.88], p=0.008). ROC analysis showed plasma GFAP accurately discriminated those with and without autopsy-confirmed AD on its own (AUC=0.75) and strengthened as the above covariates were added to the model (AUC=0.81). Increases in GFAP levels corresponded to increases in Braak stage (OR=2.39, 95% CI [0.71-4.07], p=0.005), but not CERAD ratings (OR=1.24, 95% CI [0.004, 2.49], p=0.051). Higher GFAP levels were associated with greater temporal lobe atrophy (OR=10.27, 95% CI [1.53,69.15], p=0.017), but this was not observed with any other regions.
Conclusions:The current results show that antemortem plasma GFAP is associated with non-specific AD neuropathological changes at autopsy. Plasma GFAP could be a useful and practical biomarker for assisting in the detection of AD-related changes, as well as for study of disease mechanisms.
Tony Atkinson: Challenging ‘market fundamentalism’
- Nicholas Stern
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- Journal:
- The Economic and Labour Relations Review / Volume 29 / Issue 1 / March 2018
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 January 2023, pp. 44-45
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Simulation-based research in emergency medicine in Canada: Priorities and perspectives
- Timothy Chaplin, Brent Thoma, Andrew Petrosoniak, Kyla Caners, Tamara McColl, Chantal Forristal, Christa Dakin, Jean-Francois Deshaies, Eliane Raymond-Dufresne, Mary Fotheringham, David Ha, Nicole Holm, James Huffman, Ann-Marie Lonergan, George Mastoras, Michael O'Brien, Marie-Rose Paradis, Nicholas Sowers, Errol Stern, Andrew K. Hall
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- Journal:
- Canadian Journal of Emergency Medicine / Volume 22 / Issue 1 / January 2020
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 26 September 2019, pp. 103-111
- Print publication:
- January 2020
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Objective
Simulation plays an integral role in the Canadian healthcare system with applications in quality improvement, systems development, and medical education. High-quality, simulation-based research will ensure its effective use. This study sought to summarize simulation-based research activity and its facilitators and barriers, as well as establish priorities for simulation-based research in Canadian emergency medicine (EM).
MethodsSimulation-leads from Canadian departments or divisions of EM associated with a general FRCP-EM training program surveyed and documented active EM simulation-based research at their institutions and identified the perceived facilitators and barriers. Priorities for simulation-based research were generated by simulation-leads via a second survey; these were grouped into themes and finally endorsed by consensus during an in-person meeting of simulation leads. Priority themes were also reviewed by senior simulation educators.
ResultsTwenty simulation-leads representing all 14 invited institutions participated in the study between February and May, 2018. Sixty-two active, simulation-based research projects were identified (median per institution = 4.5, IQR 4), as well as six common facilitators and five barriers. Forty-nine priorities for simulation-based research were reported and summarized into eight themes: simulation in competency-based medical education, simulation for inter-professional learning, simulation for summative assessment, simulation for continuing professional development, national curricular development, best practices in simulation-based education, simulation-based education outcomes, and simulation as an investigative methodology.
ConclusionThis study summarized simulation-based research activity in EM in Canada, identified its perceived facilitators and barriers, and built national consensus on priority research themes. This represents the first step in the development of a simulation-based research agenda specific to Canadian EM.
Contributors
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- By Mitchell Aboulafia, Frederick Adams, Marilyn McCord Adams, Robert M. Adams, Laird Addis, James W. Allard, David Allison, William P. Alston, Karl Ameriks, C. Anthony Anderson, David Leech Anderson, Lanier Anderson, Roger Ariew, David Armstrong, Denis G. Arnold, E. J. Ashworth, Margaret Atherton, Robin Attfield, Bruce Aune, Edward Wilson Averill, Jody Azzouni, Kent Bach, Andrew Bailey, Lynne Rudder Baker, Thomas R. Baldwin, Jon Barwise, George Bealer, William Bechtel, Lawrence C. Becker, Mark A. Bedau, Ernst Behler, José A. Benardete, Ermanno Bencivenga, Jan Berg, Michael Bergmann, Robert L. Bernasconi, Sven Bernecker, Bernard Berofsky, Rod Bertolet, Charles J. Beyer, Christian Beyer, Joseph Bien, Joseph Bien, Peg Birmingham, Ivan Boh, James Bohman, Daniel Bonevac, Laurence BonJour, William J. Bouwsma, Raymond D. Bradley, Myles Brand, Richard B. Brandt, Michael E. Bratman, Stephen E. Braude, Daniel Breazeale, Angela Breitenbach, Jason Bridges, David O. Brink, Gordon G. Brittan, Justin Broackes, Dan W. Brock, Aaron Bronfman, Jeffrey E. Brower, Bartosz Brozek, Anthony Brueckner, Jeffrey Bub, Lara Buchak, Otavio Bueno, Ann E. Bumpus, Robert W. Burch, John Burgess, Arthur W. Burks, Panayot Butchvarov, Robert E. Butts, Marina Bykova, Patrick Byrne, David Carr, Noël Carroll, Edward S. Casey, Victor Caston, Victor Caston, Albert Casullo, Robert L. Causey, Alan K. L. Chan, Ruth Chang, Deen K. Chatterjee, Andrew Chignell, Roderick M. Chisholm, Kelly J. Clark, E. J. Coffman, Robin Collins, Brian P. Copenhaver, John Corcoran, John Cottingham, Roger Crisp, Frederick J. Crosson, Antonio S. Cua, Phillip D. Cummins, Martin Curd, Adam Cureton, Andrew Cutrofello, Stephen Darwall, Paul Sheldon Davies, Wayne A. Davis, Timothy Joseph Day, Claudio de Almeida, Mario De Caro, Mario De Caro, John Deigh, C. F. Delaney, Daniel C. Dennett, Michael R. DePaul, Michael Detlefsen, Daniel Trent Devereux, Philip E. Devine, John M. Dillon, Martin C. Dillon, Robert DiSalle, Mary Domski, Alan Donagan, Paul Draper, Fred Dretske, Mircea Dumitru, Wilhelm Dupré, Gerald Dworkin, John Earman, Ellery Eells, Catherine Z. Elgin, Berent Enç, Ronald P. Endicott, Edward Erwin, John Etchemendy, C. Stephen Evans, Susan L. Feagin, Solomon Feferman, Richard Feldman, Arthur Fine, Maurice A. Finocchiaro, William FitzPatrick, Richard E. Flathman, Gvozden Flego, Richard Foley, Graeme Forbes, Rainer Forst, Malcolm R. Forster, Daniel Fouke, Patrick Francken, Samuel Freeman, Elizabeth Fricker, Miranda Fricker, Michael Friedman, Michael Fuerstein, Richard A. Fumerton, Alan Gabbey, Pieranna Garavaso, Daniel Garber, Jorge L. A. Garcia, Robert K. Garcia, Don Garrett, Philip Gasper, Gerald Gaus, Berys Gaut, Bernard Gert, Roger F. Gibson, Cody Gilmore, Carl Ginet, Alan H. Goldman, Alvin I. Goldman, Alfonso Gömez-Lobo, Lenn E. Goodman, Robert M. Gordon, Stefan Gosepath, Jorge J. E. Gracia, Daniel W. Graham, George A. Graham, Peter J. Graham, Richard E. Grandy, I. Grattan-Guinness, John Greco, Philip T. Grier, Nicholas Griffin, Nicholas Griffin, David A. Griffiths, Paul J. Griffiths, Stephen R. Grimm, Charles L. Griswold, Charles B. Guignon, Pete A. Y. Gunter, Dimitri Gutas, Gary Gutting, Paul Guyer, Kwame Gyekye, Oscar A. Haac, Raul Hakli, Raul Hakli, Michael Hallett, Edward C. Halper, Jean Hampton, R. James Hankinson, K. R. Hanley, Russell Hardin, Robert M. Harnish, William Harper, David Harrah, Kevin Hart, Ali Hasan, William Hasker, John Haugeland, Roger Hausheer, William Heald, Peter Heath, Richard Heck, John F. Heil, Vincent F. Hendricks, Stephen Hetherington, Francis Heylighen, Kathleen Marie Higgins, Risto Hilpinen, Harold T. Hodes, Joshua Hoffman, Alan Holland, Robert L. Holmes, Richard Holton, Brad W. Hooker, Terence E. Horgan, Tamara Horowitz, Paul Horwich, Vittorio Hösle, Paul Hoβfeld, Daniel Howard-Snyder, Frances Howard-Snyder, Anne Hudson, Deal W. Hudson, Carl A. Huffman, David L. Hull, Patricia Huntington, Thomas Hurka, Paul Hurley, Rosalind Hursthouse, Guillermo Hurtado, Ronald E. Hustwit, Sarah Hutton, Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa, Harry A. Ide, David Ingram, Philip J. Ivanhoe, Alfred L. Ivry, Frank Jackson, Dale Jacquette, Joseph Jedwab, Richard Jeffrey, David Alan Johnson, Edward Johnson, Mark D. Jordan, Richard Joyce, Hwa Yol Jung, Robert Hillary Kane, Tomis Kapitan, Jacquelyn Ann K. Kegley, James A. Keller, Ralph Kennedy, Sergei Khoruzhii, Jaegwon Kim, Yersu Kim, Nathan L. King, Patricia Kitcher, Peter D. Klein, E. D. Klemke, Virginia Klenk, George L. Kline, Christian Klotz, Simo Knuuttila, Joseph J. Kockelmans, Konstantin Kolenda, Sebastian Tomasz Kołodziejczyk, Isaac Kramnick, Richard Kraut, Fred Kroon, Manfred Kuehn, Steven T. Kuhn, Henry E. Kyburg, John Lachs, Jennifer Lackey, Stephen E. Lahey, Andrea Lavazza, Thomas H. Leahey, Joo Heung Lee, Keith Lehrer, Dorothy Leland, Noah M. Lemos, Ernest LePore, Sarah-Jane Leslie, Isaac Levi, Andrew Levine, Alan E. Lewis, Daniel E. Little, Shu-hsien Liu, Shu-hsien Liu, Alan K. L. Chan, Brian Loar, Lawrence B. Lombard, John Longeway, Dominic McIver Lopes, Michael J. Loux, E. J. Lowe, Steven Luper, Eugene C. Luschei, William G. Lycan, David Lyons, David Macarthur, Danielle Macbeth, Scott MacDonald, Jacob L. Mackey, Louis H. Mackey, Penelope Mackie, Edward H. Madden, Penelope Maddy, G. B. Madison, Bernd Magnus, Pekka Mäkelä, Rudolf A. Makkreel, David Manley, William E. Mann (W.E.M.), Vladimir Marchenkov, Peter Markie, Jean-Pierre Marquis, Ausonio Marras, Mike W. Martin, A. P. Martinich, William L. McBride, David McCabe, Storrs McCall, Hugh J. McCann, Robert N. McCauley, John J. McDermott, Sarah McGrath, Ralph McInerny, Daniel J. McKaughan, Thomas McKay, Michael McKinsey, Brian P. McLaughlin, Ernan McMullin, Anthonie Meijers, Jack W. Meiland, William Jason Melanson, Alfred R. Mele, Joseph R. Mendola, Christopher Menzel, Michael J. Meyer, Christian B. Miller, David W. Miller, Peter Millican, Robert N. Minor, Phillip Mitsis, James A. Montmarquet, Michael S. Moore, Tim Moore, Benjamin Morison, Donald R. Morrison, Stephen J. Morse, Paul K. Moser, Alexander P. D. Mourelatos, Ian Mueller, James Bernard Murphy, Mark C. Murphy, Steven Nadler, Jan Narveson, Alan Nelson, Jerome Neu, Samuel Newlands, Kai Nielsen, Ilkka Niiniluoto, Carlos G. Noreña, Calvin G. Normore, David Fate Norton, Nikolaj Nottelmann, Donald Nute, David S. Oderberg, Steve Odin, Michael O’Rourke, Willard G. Oxtoby, Heinz Paetzold, George S. Pappas, Anthony J. Parel, Lydia Patton, R. P. Peerenboom, Francis Jeffry Pelletier, Adriaan T. Peperzak, Derk Pereboom, Jaroslav Peregrin, Glen Pettigrove, Philip Pettit, Edmund L. Pincoffs, Andrew Pinsent, Robert B. Pippin, Alvin Plantinga, Louis P. Pojman, Richard H. Popkin, John F. Post, Carl J. Posy, William J. Prior, Richard Purtill, Michael Quante, Philip L. Quinn, Philip L. Quinn, Elizabeth S. Radcliffe, Diana Raffman, Gerard Raulet, Stephen L. Read, Andrews Reath, Andrew Reisner, Nicholas Rescher, Henry S. Richardson, Robert C. Richardson, Thomas Ricketts, Wayne D. Riggs, Mark Roberts, Robert C. Roberts, Luke Robinson, Alexander Rosenberg, Gary Rosenkranz, Bernice Glatzer Rosenthal, Adina L. Roskies, William L. Rowe, T. M. Rudavsky, Michael Ruse, Bruce Russell, Lilly-Marlene Russow, Dan Ryder, R. M. Sainsbury, Joseph Salerno, Nathan Salmon, Wesley C. Salmon, Constantine Sandis, David H. Sanford, Marco Santambrogio, David Sapire, Ruth A. Saunders, Geoffrey Sayre-McCord, Charles Sayward, James P. Scanlan, Richard Schacht, Tamar Schapiro, Frederick F. Schmitt, Jerome B. Schneewind, Calvin O. Schrag, Alan D. Schrift, George F. Schumm, Jean-Loup Seban, David N. Sedley, Kenneth Seeskin, Krister Segerberg, Charlene Haddock Seigfried, Dennis M. Senchuk, James F. Sennett, William Lad Sessions, Stewart Shapiro, Tommie Shelby, Donald W. Sherburne, Christopher Shields, Roger A. Shiner, Sydney Shoemaker, Robert K. Shope, Kwong-loi Shun, Wilfried Sieg, A. John Simmons, Robert L. Simon, Marcus G. Singer, Georgette Sinkler, Walter Sinnott-Armstrong, Matti T. Sintonen, Lawrence Sklar, Brian Skyrms, Robert C. Sleigh, Michael Anthony Slote, Hans Sluga, Barry Smith, Michael Smith, Robin Smith, Robert Sokolowski, Robert C. Solomon, Marta Soniewicka, Philip Soper, Ernest Sosa, Nicholas Southwood, Paul Vincent Spade, T. L. S. Sprigge, Eric O. Springsted, George J. Stack, Rebecca Stangl, Jason Stanley, Florian Steinberger, Sören Stenlund, Christopher Stephens, James P. Sterba, Josef Stern, Matthias Steup, M. A. Stewart, Leopold Stubenberg, Edith Dudley Sulla, Frederick Suppe, Jere Paul Surber, David George Sussman, Sigrún Svavarsdóttir, Zeno G. Swijtink, Richard Swinburne, Charles C. Taliaferro, Robert B. Talisse, John Tasioulas, Paul Teller, Larry S. Temkin, Mark Textor, H. S. Thayer, Peter Thielke, Alan Thomas, Amie L. Thomasson, Katherine Thomson-Jones, Joshua C. Thurow, Vzalerie Tiberius, Terrence N. Tice, Paul Tidman, Mark C. Timmons, William Tolhurst, James E. Tomberlin, Rosemarie Tong, Lawrence Torcello, Kelly Trogdon, J. D. Trout, Robert E. Tully, Raimo Tuomela, John Turri, Martin M. Tweedale, Thomas Uebel, Jennifer Uleman, James Van Cleve, Harry van der Linden, Peter van Inwagen, Bryan W. Van Norden, René van Woudenberg, Donald Phillip Verene, Samantha Vice, Thomas Vinci, Donald Wayne Viney, Barbara Von Eckardt, Peter B. M. Vranas, Steven J. Wagner, William J. Wainwright, Paul E. Walker, Robert E. Wall, Craig Walton, Douglas Walton, Eric Watkins, Richard A. Watson, Michael V. Wedin, Rudolph H. Weingartner, Paul Weirich, Paul J. Weithman, Carl Wellman, Howard Wettstein, Samuel C. Wheeler, Stephen A. White, Jennifer Whiting, Edward R. Wierenga, Michael Williams, Fred Wilson, W. Kent Wilson, Kenneth P. Winkler, John F. Wippel, Jan Woleński, Allan B. Wolter, Nicholas P. Wolterstorff, Rega Wood, W. Jay Wood, Paul Woodruff, Alison Wylie, Gideon Yaffe, Takashi Yagisawa, Yutaka Yamamoto, Keith E. Yandell, Xiaomei Yang, Dean Zimmerman, Günter Zoller, Catherine Zuckert, Michael Zuckert, Jack A. Zupko (J.A.Z.)
- Edited by Robert Audi, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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- The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy
- Published online:
- 05 August 2015
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- 27 April 2015, pp ix-xxx
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ETHICS, EQUITY AND THE ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PAPER 1: SCIENCE AND PHILOSOPHY
- Nicholas Stern
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- Economics & Philosophy / Volume 30 / Issue 3 / November 2014
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 18 September 2014, pp. 397-444
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This paper examines a broad range of ethical perspectives and principles relevant to the analysis of issues raised by the science of climate change and explores their implications. A second and companion paper extends this analysis to the contribution of ethics, economics and politics in understanding policy towards climate change. These tasks must start with the science which tells us that this is a problem of risk management on an immense scale. Risks on this scale take us far outside the familiar policy questions and standard, largely marginal, techniques commonly used by economists; this is a subject that requires the full breadth and depth of what economics has to offer and a much more thoughtful view of ethics than economists usually bring to bear. Different philosophical approaches bring different perspectives on understanding and policy, yet they generally point to the case for strong action to manage climate change.
ETHICS, EQUITY AND THE ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PAPER 2: ECONOMICS AND POLITICS
- Nicholas Stern
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- Economics & Philosophy / Volume 30 / Issue 3 / November 2014
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- 18 September 2014, pp. 445-501
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Both intertemporal and intratemporal equity are central to the examination of policy towards climate change. However, many discussions of intertemporal issues have been marred by serious analytical errors, particularly in applying standard approaches to discounting; the errors arise, in part, from paying insufficient attention to the magnitude of potential damages, and in part from overlooking problems with market information. Some of the philosophical concepts and principles of Paper 1 are applied to the analytics and ethics of pure-time discounting and infinite-horizon models, providing helpful insights into orderings of welfare streams and obligations towards future generations. Such principles give little support for the idea of discrimination by date of birth. Intratemporal issues are central to problematic and slow-moving international discussions and are the second focus of this paper. A way forward is to cast the policy issues and analyses in a way that keeps equity issues central and embeds them in the challenge of fostering the dynamic transition to the low-carbon economy in both developed and developing countries. This avoids the trap of seeing issues primarily in terms of burden-sharing and zero-sum games – that leads to inaction and the most inequitable outcome of all.
About the Contributors
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- By Bill Barnhart, Rosalee A. Clawson, Richard Davis, Valerie Hoekstra, Tyler Johnson, Nicholas LaRowe, Dahlia Lithwick, Phil Marcin, Laura Moyer, David G. Savage, Rorie Spill Solberg, Seth Stern, Vincent James Strickler, Matthew Thornton, Terri L. Towner, Joseph Daniel Ura, Richard L. Vining, Eric N. Waltenburg
- Edited by Richard Davis
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- Covering the United States Supreme Court in the Digital Age
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- 05 August 2014
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- 11 August 2014, pp ix-xii
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Contributors
- Edited by Georgina Born, University of Oxford
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- Music, Sound and Space
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- 05 February 2013
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- 17 January 2013, pp x-xiii
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Chapter 6 - A Global Deal on Climate Change
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- By Nicholas Stern, London School of Economics and Political Science
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- The Politics of Knowledge
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- ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
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- 21 October 2015
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- 02 March 2009, pp 111-155
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Summary
INTRODUCTION
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are externalities in that they damage others but the cost is not borne by the emitter of pollution. Thus ‘without policy’ “the polluter does not pay” and therefore has no incentive to limit the damage inflicted on others. This represents the biggest market failure the world has seen. We all produce emissions, people around the world are already suffering from past emissions, and current emissions, if they are not curbed, will have potentially catastrophic impacts in the future. Thus these emissions are not ordinary, localised externalities such as congestion. Risk on a global scale is at the core of the issue. So too are ethics since first this is a highly inequitable process, the rich countries are responsible for most past emissions and poor countries are hit hardest, and second we have to think about relative valuation of costs and benefits far into the future. These basic features of the problem must shape the economic analysis we bring to bear; failure to do this will, and has, produced approaches to policy which are profoundly misleading and indeed dangerous.
In this chapter I will set out what I think is an appropriate way to examine the economics of climate change, given the unique scientific and economic challenges posed, and to suggest implications for emissions targets, policy instruments and global action. The subject is complex and very wide-ranging. It is a subject of vital importance but one in which the economics is fairly young. A central challenge is to provide the economic tools necessary as quickly as possible, because policy decisions are both urgent and moving quickly — particularly following the UNFCCC meetings in Bali in December 2007. The relevant decisions can be greatly improved if we bring the best economic analyses and judgements to the table in real time.
A brief description of the scientific processes linking climate change to GHG emissions will help us to understand how they should shape the economic analysis.
20 - Adaptation in the Developing World
- Nicholas Stern
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- The Economics of Climate Change
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- 05 March 2014
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- 04 January 2007, pp 486-506
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Summary
KEY MESSAGES
Adaptation to mute the impact of climate change will be essential in the poorer parts of the world. The poorest countries will be especially hard hit by climate change, with millions potentially pushed deeper into poverty.
Development itself is key to adaptation. Much adaptation should be an extension of good development practice and reduce vulnerability by:
Promoting growth and diversification of economic activity;
Investing in health and education;
Enhancing resilience to disasters and improving disaster management;
Promoting risk-pooling, including social safety nets for the poorest.
Putting the right policy frameworks in place will encourage and facilitate effective adaptation by households, communities and firms. Poverty and development constraints will present obstacles to adaptation but focused development policies can reduce these obstacles.
Adaptation actions should be integrated into development policy and planning at every level. This will incur incremental adaptation costs relative to plans that ignore climate change. But ignoring climate change is not a viable option – inaction will be far more costly than adaptation.
Adaptation costs are hard to estimate, because of uncertainty about the precise impacts of climate change and its multiple effects. But they are likely to run into tens of billions of dollars. This makes it still more important for developed countries to honour their existing commitments to increase aid sharply and help the world's poorest countries adapt to climate change. More work is needed to determine the costs of adaptation.
Part VI - International Collective Action
- Nicholas Stern
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- The Economics of Climate Change
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- 05 March 2014
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- 04 January 2007, pp 507-508
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Summary
Part VI of the Review considers the challenges of building and sustaining frameworks for international collective action on climate change.
It considers the various dimensions of action that will be required to reduce the risks of climate change: both for mitigation (including through carbon prices and markets, interventions to support low-carbon investment and technology diffusion, co-operation on technology development and deployment, and action to reverse deforestation), and for adaptation.
These dimensions of action are not independent. For example, a carbon price is essential to provide incentives for investment in low-carbon technology around the world, and can be strongly complemented by international co-operation to bring down the costs of new low-carbon technologies. The success of international co-operation on mitigation will determine the scale of action required for adaptation.
Part VI is structured as follows:
Chapter 21 provides a framework for understanding international collective action, drawing on insights from game theory and international relations, and sets out an overview of existing international co-operation on climate change.
Chapter 22 examines the challenge of creating a broadly comparable price for carbon around the world. It considers what can be learned from the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, and looks at the scope for expanding and linking emissions trading schemes.
Chapter 23 considers how the transition to a global low-carbon economy can be accelerated through action to promote the diffusion of technology and investment in low-carbon infrastructure in developing countries and economies in transition.
[…]
Frontmatter
- Nicholas Stern
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- The Economics of Climate Change
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- 05 March 2014
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- 04 January 2007, pp i-vi
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22 - Creating a Global Price for Carbon
- Nicholas Stern
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- The Economics of Climate Change
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- 05 March 2014
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- 04 January 2007, pp 530-554
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Summary
KEY MESSAGES
A shared understanding of long-term goals must be at the centre of international frameworks to support large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions reductions around the world.
A broadly similar price of carbon is necessary to keep down the overall costs of making these reductions, and can be created through tax, trading or regulation. Creating a transparent and comparable carbon price signal around the world is an urgent challenge for international collective action.
Securing broad-based and sustained co-operation requires an equitable distribution of effort across both developed and developing countries. There is no single formula that captures all dimensions of equity, but calculations based on income, per capita emissions and historic responsibility all point to developed countries taking responsibility for emissions reductions of at least 60% from 1990 levels by 2050.
The Kyoto Protocol has established valuable institutions to underpin international emissions trading. There are strong reasons to build on and learn from this approach. There are also opportunities to use the UNFCCC dialogue and the review of the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol to explore ways to improve.
Private sector trading schemes are now at the heart of international flows of carbon finance. Linking and expanding regional and sectoral emissions trading schemes, including sub-national and voluntary schemes, requires greater international co-operation and the development of appropriate new institutional arrangements.
Common but differentiated responsibilities should be reflected in future international frameworks, including through a greater range of commitments and multi-stage approaches.
7A - Climate Change and the Environmental Kuznets Curve
- Nicholas Stern
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- The Economics of Climate Change
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- 05 March 2014
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- 04 January 2007, pp 216-217
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Some evidence indicates that, for local pollutants like oxides of nitrogen, sulphur dioxide and heavy metals, there is an inverted-U shaped relationship between income per head and emissions per head: the so-called ‘environmental Kuznets curve’, illustrated in Figure 7.A.1. The usual rationale for such a curve is that the demand for environmental improvements is income elastic, although explanations based on structural changes in the economy have also been put forward. So the question arises, is there such a relationship for CO2? If so, economic development would ultimately lead to falls in global emissions (although that would be highly unlikely before GHG concentrations had risen to destructive levels).
In the case of greenhouse gases, this argument is not very convincing. As societies become richer, they may want to improve their own environment, but they can do little about climate change by reducing their own CO2 emissions alone. With CO2, the global nature of the externality means that people in any particular high-income country cannot by themselves significantly affect global emissions and hence their own climate. This contrasts with the situation for the local pollutants for which environmental Kuznets curves have been estimated. It is easier than with greenhouse gases for the people affected to set up abatement incentives and appropriate political and regulatory mechanisms. Second, CO2 had not been identified as a pollutant until around 20 years ago, so an explanation of past data based on the demand for environmental improvements does not convince.
9 - Identifying the Costs of Mitigation
- Nicholas Stern
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- The Economics of Climate Change
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- 05 March 2014
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- 04 January 2007, pp 238-266
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KEY MESSAGES
Slowly reducing emissions of greenhouse gasses that cause climate change is likely to entail some costs. Costs include the expense of developing and deploying low-emission and high-efficiency technologies and the cost to consumers of switching spending from emissions-intensive to low-emission goods and services.
Fossil fuel emissions can be cut in several ways: reducing demand for carbon-intensive products, increasing energy efficiency, and switching to low-carbon technologies. Non-fossil fuel emissions are also an important source of emission savings. Costs will differ considerably depending on which methods and techniques are used where.
Reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and services is part of the solution. If prices start to reflect the full costs of production, including the greenhouse gas externality, consumers and firms will react by shifting to relatively cheaper low-carbon products. Increasing awareness of climate change is also likely to influence demand. But demand-side factors alone are unlikely to achieve all the emissions reductions required.
Efficiency gains offer opportunities both to save money and to reduce emissions, but require the removal of barriers to the uptake of more efficient technologies and methods.
A range of low-carbon technologies is already available, although many are currently more expensive than fossil-fuel equivalents. Cleaner and more efficient power, heat and transport technologies are needed to make radical emission cuts in the medium to long term. Their future costs are uncertain, but experience with other technologies has helped to develop an understanding of the key risks.
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Preface
- Nicholas Stern
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- Book:
- The Economics of Climate Change
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- 05 March 2014
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- 04 January 2007, pp ix-x
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This Review was announced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in July 2005. The Review set out to provide a report to the Prime Minister and Chancellor by Autumn 2006 assessing:
the economics of moving to a low-carbon global economy, focusing on the medium to long-term perspective, and drawing implications for the timescales for action, and the choice of policies and institutions;
the potential of different approaches for adaptation to changes in the climate; and
specific lessons for the UK, in the context of its existing climate change goals.
The terms of reference for the Review included a requirement to consult broadly with stakeholders and to examine the evidence on:
the implications for energy demand and emissions of the prospects for economic growth over the coming decades, including the composition and energy intensity of growth in developed and developing countries;
the economic, social and environmental consequences of climate change in both developed and developing countries, taking into account the risks of increased climate volatility and major irreversible impacts, and the climatic interaction with other air pollutants, as well as possible actions to adapt to the changing climate and the costs associated with them;
[…]
21 - Framework for Understanding International Collective Action for Climate Change
- Nicholas Stern
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- The Economics of Climate Change
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- 04 January 2007, pp 509-529
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KEY MESSAGES
Climate change mitigation raises the classic problem of the provision of a global public good. It shares some key characteristics with other environmental challenges that require the international management of common resources to avoid free riding.
International collective action is already taking place in a wide variety of forms, including multilateral, coordinated and parallel approaches.
Multilateral frameworks such as the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol provide an essential foundation to build further co-operation.
Partnerships, networks and organisations such as the International Energy Agency facilitate coordinated international action.
Mutual understanding of domestic policy goals supports further action: the EU, China, and California are amongst those that have adopted strong mandatory initiatives that will reduce the growth of greenhouse gas emissions.
Stronger, more coordinated action is required to stabilise concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Successful efforts in many areas, including the protection of the ozone layer, have demonstrated that international co-operation can overcome issues of free riding. Insights from game theory help to inform the design of frameworks for international action.
Countries usually honour international commitments where they conform to shared notions of responsible behaviour, even through international law provides weak tools to enforce co-operation. Existing multilateral frameworks can be enhanced by creating a shared understanding of long-term goals and responsible behaviour.
The transparency and comparability of national action across a range of dimensions of effort are key to mutual understanding and recognition of what others are doing, as well as ensuring public accountability.
Technical Annex to Postscript
- Nicholas Stern
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- The Economics of Climate Change
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- 04 January 2007, pp 658-672
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Some commentators on the Review have focussed on particular technical issues associated with modelling the aggregated impacts of climate change. Our estimates of damage from climate change derived from formal economic modelling are higher than many estimates in the literature, and there has rightly been strong interest in our underlying assumptions. This paper responds to some of the comments on the modelling we have received in the weeks since the publication of the report.
The questions concern both the model structure and the ethical judgements that are embodied in the evaluations. Investigating these questions allows us to use the models to clarify the roles of the different assumptions in a structured way. We did not present these results as part of Chapter 6, but we have subsequently carried out a sensitivity analysis in this area and the results are presented below. This Technical Annex can be seen, in part, as an annex to Chapter 6.
The Role of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)
Integrated assessment models attempt to summarise the impacts of climate change, usually in terms of aggregate gains or damages in terms of income. These models, on the basis of their assumptions, give an idea of the magnitude of risks, their evolution over time and sensitivity to emissions. As the Review makes clear, the role of IAMs is to give an illustration of the potential effects of climate change.
12 - Opportunities and Wider Benefits from Climate Policies
- Nicholas Stern
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- The Economics of Climate Change
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- 05 March 2014
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- 04 January 2007, pp 302-317
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KEY MESSAGES
The transition to a low-emissions global economy will open many new opportunities across a wide range of industries and services. Markets for low carbon energy products are likely to be worth at least $500 bn per year by 2050, and perhaps much more. Individual companies and countries should position themselves to take advantage of these opportunities.
Financial markets also face big opportunities to develop new trading and financial instruments across a broad range including carbon trading, financing clean energy, greater energy efficiency, and insurance.
Climate change policy can help to root out existing inefficiencies. At the company level, implementing climate policies can draw attention to money-saving opportunities. At the economy-wide level, climate change policy can be a lever for reforming inefficient energy systems and removing distorting energy subsidies on which governments spend around $250 bn a year.
Policies on climate change can also help to achieve other objectives, including enhanced energy security and environmental protection. These co-benefits can significantly reduce the overall cost to the economy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. There may be tensions between climate change mitigation and other objectives, which need to be handled carefully, but as long as policies are well designed, the co-benefits will be more significant than the conflicts.
Introduction
Climate change policies will lead to structural shifts in energy production and use, and in other emissions-intensive activities. Whilst the previous chapters focused on the resource costs and competitiveness implications of this change, this chapter considers the opportunities that this shift will create.