This research provides improved techniques for analyzing the after-tax risk exposure of taxable institutions holding amortizing instruments such as commercial, real estate, and consumer loans. We derive after-tax duration for amortizing instruments and analyze it for sensitivity to tax rates, coupon, and maturity. Taxable investors who hedge and ignore the effects of taxes on amortizing instruments will underestimate differences in durations on bonds versus amortizing instruments of equal maturities; bond durations increase much faster as tax rates increase. One unexpected result shows that, unlike bond duration, amortizing instrument duration often increases with coupon rate, and sometimes is independent of coupon rate.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the optimal individual behavior in acquiring information and to determine the amount of information incorporated in a stock at equilibrium, in the presence of a cost schedule in acquiring information. Our paper shows that at equilibrium the cost to acquire information that is not already incorporated in the price depends only on the representative investor's risk preferences. It follows that the marginal information costs are the same across all stocks at equilibrium even though the stock's information costs schedules may differ. This suggests that the prices of small stocks may not incorporate all publicly available information. This paper also provides empirical evidence that newspapers' publication of publicly available information can affect the stock prices.

Previous investigators have shown that the Sharpe measure of the performance of a managed portfolio may be flawed when the portfolio manager has market timing ability. Herein we develop the exact conditions under which the Sharpe measure will completely and correctly order market timers according to ability. The derived conditions are necessary, sufficient, and observable. We compare these derived conditions to empirical estimates of actual market conditions and find that, under typical market conditions, the practice of using quarterly portfolio return data will frequently result in a failure of the Sharpe measure to order timers according to ability. We show, however, that such failures can be greatly reduced by more frequent sampling of managed portfolio returns.

This study explores the hypothesis that capital structure change provides bidders and targets a motive for merger. After a brief review of theories that would support the hypothesis, the paper reports results of tests on (1) leverage in bidder and target firms, and (2) change in shareholder wealth associated with change in leverage. The findings support the theory of Myers and Majluf that “slack-rich” bidders pair with “slack-poor” targets to create value. These results are contrary to other studies, which find highly levered bidders.

This paper presents a test of the theory of rational option exercise. Exercise data from the market for options on Treasury bond futures are used to test the model of rational early exercise developed by Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1987) (BAW). The results show that the BAW model underestimates the futures price that will trigger exercise for calls and overestimates this price for puts. The exercise bias is observed to change across option maturities and the direction of the bias is consistent with the direction of the model-pricing bias observed by Whaley (1986).

This paper extends the Roll model for implicit bid-ask spreads by incorporating the possibility of serial correlation in transaction type. The validity of this formula is examined using intra-day transactions and bid-ask spread data for options traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. The results indicate that the model derived here closely estimates the effective bid-ask spread in that it explains more than 80 percent of the crosssectional differences in announced bid-ask spreads.

The purpose of this paper is to suggest simple procedures designed to cope with the effects of thin trading on event study tests. The procedures are directed at two central problems: (i) missing individual stock returns (i.e., days on which no trading is observed in a security), and (ii) the effect of a bid-ask spread on the time series behavior of daily stock return data. We attack these problems by explicitly incorporating them in the construction of a generating process for observed security returns. First, we develop a procedure for “filling in” missing returns. Then, we model a return-generating process of observed security returns that allows estimation of the variance of unobserved true security returns for use in hypothesis testing.

General equilibrium in the classical two-period mean-variance capital asset pricing model is not unique. Corresponding to one single set of expectations, utility functions, and an initial wealth distribution, there may be several equilibria, and an asset may have different prices, expected rates of return, and betas in different equilibria. However, any equilibrium portfolio is sustained by a unique price system, and if investors have decreasing risk aversion, then any equilibrium allocation of the risky assets is sustained by a unique price system.

A number of futures contracts conveys to the short position various delivery options regarding the quality and exact timing of delivery. Moreover, the compensation to the long position is not solely determined by the market value of the delivered asset at the time of delivery. Sometimes, the long position can hedge this delivery risk by holding an appropriate portfolio of the underlying asset. It often has been stated that whenever the long position can form a dynamic hedge against the delivery risk, the delivery option has a zero value. This paper demonstrates the implication of such erroneous intuition to the pricing of options. It is shown that the root of the issue is the property of diffusion processes whereas, within a given time interval, a random variable either will never cross a given boundary or else, cross it an infinite number of times.

This paper analyzes the correspondence between arbitrage sector pricing efficiency and the short-term hedging costs and effectiveness of futures contracts. Reversals of initial contract mispricings by arbitrage sector trading leads to an important mispricing return component in the total return to hedge portfolios. The existence of the mispricing return has implications for initial hedge ratio selection, hedging effectiveness, and expected hedge return. The analysis is used to interpret the hedge ratio guidance and performance of short-term hedges between the Standard and Poor's 500 stock index futures contract and the underlying S&P 500 cash stock index portfolio over the 1982–1986 period.

The Ho-Saunders model (1981) is extended to consider the case of loan heterogeneity. Pure interest spreads may be reduced when cross-elasticities of demand between bank products are considered. The resulting diversification benefits emanate from the interdependence of demands across bank services and products—a type of portfolio effect. Control over relative rate spreads, across product types, and the resulting ability to manipulate the arrival of transactions demands enables the financial intermediary to maintain a more active role in managing its inventory risk exposure.

Dissatisfaction occasionally has been expressed with traditional measures of duration for immunization on conceptual grounds. However, more elegant duration measures have not been found to be superior to the traditional ones in empirical tests of immunization efficacy. Under the assumption that the term structure of continuously compounded interest rates can be expressed as a polynomial, Chambers and Carleton (1981) demonstrate that the finite and noninstantaneous return of a default-free bond can be expressed as a vector product of a duration vector and a shift vector. This study derives immunization strategies from the model and tests them. The results of the portfolio tests indicate that the traditional duration approach of Macaulay provides enhanced immunization relative to maturity approaches or naive approaches. However, the duration vector approach produces further improvements.

In a perfectly efficient market, after adjusting for drift, futures prices would follow a martingale model. The martingale property implies that the changes in futures prices should be serially uncorrelated. This study finds that the price changes of the S&P 500 futures contracts during 1983 and 1984 have negative serial correlation and are better described by a random walk model with reflecting barriers or by a random walk model with reflecting barriers and mean reversion.

The flattening of yield curves at long-term maturities is proven to be approximately proportional to the reciprocal of the time to maturity under general conditions. This is a consequence of the persistence of earlier forward rates in the averaging process, which produces yields from forward rates. This relationship suggests the use of a “reciprocal maturity yield curve,” which significantly facilitates the interpretation of the behavior of long-term yields by linearizing them for display over a shorter interval. This is illustrated using a yield curve for U.S. Treasury bills.

Livingston contends that short futures/long cash traders can eliminate the potential costs of the quality option through use of a dynamic trading strategy. It is proposed here that if this is possible then futures prices will never reach a stable equilibrium. Alternatively, if Livingston's argument is flawed, then no risk-free arbitrage opportunities are likely to be available to either short cash/long futures or long cash/short futures traders. Under such conditions, futures prices will reach an equilibrium when the expected return and risk of each type position are equally attractive.

Mikkelson, W., and M. Partch. “Withdrawn Security Offerings,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 23 (June 1988), 119-133.

This paper extends the default model of yield spreads for bonds by showing that, in general, they are a complex function of maturity and, in particular, are not always monotonically increasing, contrary to what one traditional view suggests. Our results may help explain the apparently conflicting empirical results found in the literature.