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Objectives/Goals: Kentucky (KY) is a high priority ending the HIV epidemic state, with high rates of new HIV diagnoses tied to injection drug use. The overall goal of this pilot is to launch sentinel surveillance of bloodborne infections and drug compounds among people who inject drugs (PWID) to monitor trends in near-real time and inform rapid community response. Methods/Study Population: In collaboration with the Clark County, KY, syringe service program (SSP), the pilot study involves two 1-month waves of data collection: enrolling eligible SSP participants and conducting anonymous behavioral surveys, collection of participants’ syringes, laboratory testing of syringes to detect HIV and hepatitis C (HCV), drug residue testing through National Institute of Standards and Technology, and statistical modeling approaches to produce outputs of bloodborne infection and drug detection. Syringes are tested from each enrolled individual for: 1) HIV antibody; 2) HCV antibody; 3) HIV and HCV PCR; 4) HIV antigen; and 5) drug residue. Collaboration with community and PWID stakeholders will identify optimal messaging for reporting results. Results/Anticipated Results: The first wave community-facing pilot was conducted in September–October 2024. 29 survey responses were obtained; median age of the sample is 42 years, 55.2% are gender female; 37.9% reported unstable housing in the past week. Primary drugs of injection reported via survey in the prior month were methamphetamine (62.1%), heroin (13.8%), fentanyl (13.8%), buprenorphine (10.3%), meth and fentanyl in combination (3.4%). PWID reported returning 900 used syringes and a median of 15 per participant visit. At most recent testing, 69.0% reported a positive HCV test; 0% reported a positive HIV test. Some level of drug checking with fentanyl test strips in past month was reported by 51.7%. Initially, 20 syringes were tested for drug compounds; results are pending. HIV and HCV detection testing will be completed by early 2025. Discussion/Significance of Impact: Early results document proof of concept for our sentinel surveillance study; all individuals screened were willing to participate in surveys and syringe collection. New methods to identify risk for disease outbreaks and emerging drugs can inform rapid allocation of prevention resources at a community level, especially where testing is infrequent.
An adaptable estimation technique is presented to reconstruct time-evolving three dimensional (3-D) velocity fields from planar particle image velocimetry measurements. The methodology builds on the multi-time-delay estimation technique of Hosseini et al. (2015) by implementing the finite-impulse-response spectral proper orthogonal decomposition (FIR-SPOD) of Sieber et al. (2016). The candidate flow is the highly modulated turbulent near wake of a cantilevered square cylinder with a height-to-width ratio $h/d=4$, protruding a thin laminar boundary layer ($\delta /d=0.21$ with $\delta$ being the boundary layer thickness) at the Reynolds number $Re=10600$, based on d. The novelty of the estimation technique is in using the modal space obtained by FIR-SPOD to better isolate the spatio-temporal scales for correlating velocity and pressure modes. Using FIR-SPOD, irregular coherent contributions at frequencies centred at $f_{ac1}=(1\pm 0.05)f_s$ and $f_{ac2}=(1\pm 0.1)f_s$ (with $f_s$ the fundamental shedding frequency) could be separated, which was not possible using proper orthogonal decomposition. With the FIR-SPOD bases, the quality of the estimation improved significantly using only linear terms, and the correct phase relationships between pressure and velocity modes are retained, as is required for synchronizing coherent motions along the height of the obstacle. It is shown that a low-dimensional reconstruction of the flow field successfully captures the cycle-to-cycle variations of the dominant 3-D vortex shedding process, which give rise to vortex dislocation events. Thus, the present methodology shows promise in 3-D reconstruction of challenging turbulent flows, which exhibit non-periodic behaviour or contain multi-scale phenomena.
The random lottery incentive system is widely used in experimental economics to motivate subjects. This paper investigates its validity. It reports three experiments which compare responses given to decision tasks which are embedded in random lottery designs with responses in ‘single choice’ designs in which each subject faces just one task for real. The experiments were designed to detect cross-task contamination effects in the random lottery treatment. No significant differences between treatments, and no significant contamination effects, were found. Over the three experiments, observed differences between the treatments are adequately explained as sampling variation.
Interprofessional teams in the pediatric cardiac ICU consolidate their management plans in pre-family meeting huddles, a process that affects the course of family meetings but often lacks optimal communication and teamwork.
Methods:
Cardiac ICU clinicians participated in an interprofessional intervention to improve how they prepared for and conducted family meetings. We conducted a pretest–posttest study with clinicians participating in huddles before family meetings. We assessed feasibility of clinician enrollment, assessed clinician perception of acceptability of the intervention via questionnaire and semi-structured interviews, and impact on team performance using a validated tool. Wilcoxon rank sum test assessed intervention impact on team performance at meeting level comparing pre- and post-intervention data.
Results:
Totally, 24 clinicians enrolled in the intervention (92% retention) with 100% completion of training. All participants recommend cardiac ICU Teams and Loved ones Communicating to others and 96% believe it improved their participation in family meetings. We exceeded an acceptable level of protocol fidelity (>75%). Team performance was significantly (p < 0.001) higher in post-intervention huddles (n = 30) than in pre-intervention (n = 28) in all domains. Median comparisons: Team structure [2 vs. 5], Leadership [3 vs. 5], Situation Monitoring [3 vs. 5], Mutual Support [ 3 vs. 5], and Communication [3 vs. 5].
Conclusion:
Implementing an interprofessional team intervention to improve team performance in pre-family meeting huddles is feasible, acceptable, and improves team function. Future research should further assess impact on clinicians, patients, and families.
Depression is common in people with dementia, and negatively affects quality of life.
Aims
This paper aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of an intervention for depression in mild and moderate dementia caused by Alzheimer's disease over 12 months (PATHFINDER trial), from both the health and social care and societal perspectives.
Method
A total of 336 participants were randomised to receive the adapted PATH intervention in addition to treatment as usual (TAU) (n = 168) or TAU alone (n = 168). Health and social care resource use were collected with the Client Service Receipt Inventory and health-related quality-of-life data with the EQ-5D-5L instrument at baseline and 3-, 6- and 12-month follow-up points. Principal analysis comprised quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) calculated from the participant responses to the EQ-5D-5L instrument.
Results
The mean cost of the adapted PATH intervention was estimated at £1141 per PATHFINDER participant. From a health and social care perspective, the mean difference in costs between the adapted PATH and control arm at 12 months was −£74 (95% CI −£1942 to £1793), and from the societal perspective was −£671 (95% CI −£9144 to £7801). The mean difference in QALYs was 0.027 (95% CI −0.004 to 0.059). At £20 000 per QALY gained threshold, there were 74 and 68% probabilities of adapted PATH being cost-effective from the health and social care and societal perspective, respectively.
Conclusions
The addition of the adapted PATH intervention to TAU for people with dementia and depression generated cost savings alongside a higher quality of life compared with TAU alone; however, the improvements in costs and QALYs were not statistically significant.
Functional decline following hospitalization remains an important problem in health care, especially for frail older adults. Modifiable factors related to reduction in harms of hospitalization are not well described. One particularly pervasive factor is emergency department (ED) boarding time; time waiting from decision to admit, until transfer to an in-patient medical unit. We sought to investigate how the functional status of frail older adults correlated with the length of time spent boarded in the ED. We found that patients who waited for 24 hours or more exhibited functional decline in both the Barthel Index and Hierarchical Assessment of Balance and Mobility and an increase in the Clinical Frailty Scale from discharge to 6 months post discharge. In conclusion, there is a need for additional investigation into ED focused interventions to reduce ED boarding time for this population or to improve access to specialized geriatric services within the ED.
As the federal government continues to expand upon and improve its data sharing policies over the past 20 years, complex challenges remain. Our interviews with U.S. academic genetic researchers (n=23) found that the burden, translation, industry limitations, and consent structure of data sharing remain major governance challenges.
This study examines the use of graph centrality to identify critical components in assembly models, a method typically dominated by computationally intense analyses. By applying centrality measures to simulated assembly graphs, components were ranked to assess their criticality. These rankings were compared against Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis results. Preliminary findings indicate a promising correlation, suggesting graph centrality as a valuable tool in assembly analysis, enhancing efficiency and insight in critical component identification.
NASA’s all-sky survey mission, the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), is specifically engineered to detect exoplanets that transit bright stars. Thus far, TESS has successfully identified approximately 400 transiting exoplanets, in addition to roughly 6 000 candidate exoplanets pending confirmation. In this study, we present the results of our ongoing project, the Validation of Transiting Exoplanets using Statistical Tools (VaTEST). Our dedicated effort is focused on the confirmation and characterisation of new exoplanets through the application of statistical validation tools. Through a combination of ground-based telescope data, high-resolution imaging, and the utilisation of the statistical validation tool known as TRICERATOPS, we have successfully discovered eight potential super-Earths. These planets bear the designations: TOI-238b (1.61$^{+0.09} _{-0.10}$ R$_\oplus$), TOI-771b (1.42$^{+0.11} _{-0.09}$ R$_\oplus$), TOI-871b (1.66$^{+0.11} _{-0.11}$ R$_\oplus$), TOI-1467b (1.83$^{+0.16} _{-0.15}$ R$_\oplus$), TOI-1739b (1.69$^{+0.10} _{-0.08}$ R$_\oplus$), TOI-2068b (1.82$^{+0.16} _{-0.15}$ R$_\oplus$), TOI-4559b (1.42$^{+0.13} _{-0.11}$ R$_\oplus$), and TOI-5799b (1.62$^{+0.19} _{-0.13}$ R$_\oplus$). Among all these planets, six of them fall within the region known as ‘keystone planets’, which makes them particularly interesting for study. Based on the location of TOI-771b and TOI-4559b below the radius valley we characterised them as likely super-Earths, though radial velocity mass measurements for these planets will provide more details about their characterisation. It is noteworthy that planets within the size range investigated herein are absent from our own solar system, making their study crucial for gaining insights into the evolutionary stages between Earth and Neptune.
The sizes and shapes of single clay mineral layers are difficult to determine though they are important parameters which determine the final properties of clay polymer nanocomposites and of ultrathin clay mineral films. To determine these sizes and shapes, hybrid monolayers of clay minerals (saponite, hectorite, Wyoming bentonite, and Laponite) and Rhodamine B octadecyl ester Perchlorate (RhB18) were prepared using the Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) technique and studied with atomic force microscopy (AFM). The AFM images reveal monolayers of elementary clay mineral layers, which are randomly oriented and have a wide range of sizes. The layers have typical shapes: lath-like for hectorite, plates for Wyoming bentonite, a mixture of laths and plates for saponite, and aggregates of very small layers of Laponite. Two types of layers were present in the LB films of saponite, Wyoming bentonite, and hectorite in a 40:60 ratio: (1) single layers 0.96 nm thick hybridized with RhB18; and (2) particles consisting of two clay layers with an intercalated monomolecular layer of water molecules and hybridized with RhB18. The Laponite particles in the hybrid LB films consist mainly of aggregates of two and three single layers.
Parkinsonism and Parkinson's disease (PD) have been described as consequences of repetitive head impacts (RHI) from boxing, since 1928. Autopsy studies have shown that RHI from other contact sports can also increase risk for neurodegenerative diseases, including chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) and Lewy bodies. In vivo research on the relationship between American football play and PD is scarce, with small samples, and equivocal findings. This study leveraged the Fox Insight study to evaluate the association between American football and parkinsonism and/or PD Diagnosis and related clinical outcomes.
Participants and Methods:
Fox Insight is an online study of people with and without PD who are 18+ years (>50,000 enrolled). Participants complete online questionnaires on motor function, cognitive function, and general health behaviors. Participants self-reported whether they "currently have a diagnosis of Parkinson's disease, or parkinsonism, by a physician or other health care professional." In November 2020, the Boston University Head Impact Exposure Assessment was launched in Fox Insight for large-scale data collection on exposure to RHI from contact sports and other sources. Data used in this abstract were obtained from the Fox Insight database https://foxinsight-info.michaeljfox.org/insight/explore/insight.jsp on 01/06/2022. The sample includes 2018 men who endorsed playing an organized sport. Because only 1.6% of football players were women, analyses are limited to men. Responses to questions regarding history of participation in organized football were examined. Other contact and/or non-contact sports served as the referent group. Outcomes included PD status (absence/presence of parkinsonism or PD) and Penn Parkinson's Daily Activities Questionnaire-15 (PDAQ-15) for assessment of cognitive symptoms. Binary logistic regression tested associations between history and years of football play with PD status, controlling for age, education, current heart disease or diabetes, and family history of PD. Linear regressions, controlling for these variables, were used for the PDAQ-15.
Results:
Of the 2018 men (mean age=67.67, SD=9.84; 10, 0.5% Black), 788 (39%) played football (mean years of play=4.29, SD=2.88), including 122 (16.3%) who played youth football, 494 (66.0%) played high school, 128 (17.1%) played college football, and 5 (0.7%) played at the semi-professional or professional level. 1738 (86.1%) reported being diagnosed with parkinsonism/PD, and 707 of these were football players (40.7%). History of playing any level of football was associated with increased odds of having a reported parkinsonism or PD diagnosis (OR=1.52, 95% CI=1.14-2.03, p=0.004). The OR remained similar among those age <69 (sample median age) (OR=1.45, 95% CI=0.97-2.17, p=0.07) and 69+ (OR=1.45, 95% CI=0.95-2.22, p=0.09). Among the football players, there was not a significant association between years of play and PD status (OR=1.09, 95% CI=1.00-1.20, p=0.063). History of football play was not associated with PDAQ-15 scores (n=1980) (beta=-0.78, 95% CI=-1.59-0.03, p=0.059) among the entire sample.
Conclusions:
Among 2018 men from a data set enriched for PD, playing organized football was associated with increased odds of having a reported parkinsonism/PD diagnosis. Next steps include examination of the contribution of traumatic brain injury and other sources of RHI (e.g., soccer, military service).
Former professional American football players have a high relative risk for neurodegenerative diseases like chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). Interpreting low cognitive test scores in this population occasionally is complicated by performance on validity testing. Neuroimaging biomarkers may help inform whether a neurodegenerative disease is present in these situations. We report three cases of retired professional American football players who completed comprehensive neuropsychological testing, but “failed” performance validity tests, and underwent multimodal neuroimaging (structural MRI, Aß-PET, and tau-PET).
Participants and Methods:
Three cases were identified from the Focused Neuroimaging for the Neurodegenerative Disease Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (FIND-CTE) study, an ongoing multimodal imaging study of retired National Football League players with complaints of progressive cognitive decline conducted at Boston University and the UCSF Memory and Aging Center. Participants were relatively young (age range 55-65), had 16 or more years of education, and two identified as Black/African American. Raw neuropsychological test scores were converted to demographically-adjusted z-scores. Testing included standalone (Test of Memory Malingering; TOMM) and embedded (reliable digit span, RDS) performance validity measures. Validity cutoffs were TOMM Trial 2 < 45 and RDS < 7. Structural MRIs were interpreted by trained neurologists. Aß-PET with Florbetapir was used to quantify cortical Aß deposition as global Centiloids (0 = mean cortical signal for a young, cognitively normal, Aß negative individual in their 20s, 100 = mean cortical signal for a patient with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease dementia). Tau-PET was performed with MK-6240 and first quantified as standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) map. The SUVR map was then converted to a w-score map representing signal intensity relative to a sample of demographically-matched healthy controls.
Results:
All performed in the average range on a word reading-based estimate of premorbid intellect. Contribution of Alzheimer’s disease pathology was ruled out in each case based on Centiloids quantifications < 0. All cases scored below cutoff on TOMM Trial 2 (Case #1=43, Case #2=42, Case #3=19) and Case #3 also scored well below RDS cutoff (2). Each case had multiple cognitive scores below expectations (z < -2.0) most consistently in memory, executive function, processing speed domains. For Case #1, MRI revealed mild atrophy in dorsal fronto-parietal and medial temporal lobe (MTL) regions and mild periventricular white matter disease. Tau-PET showed MTL tau burden modestly elevated relative to controls (regional w-score=0.59, 72nd%ile). For Case #2, MRI revealed cortical atrophy, mild hippocampal atrophy, and a microhemorrhage, with no evidence of meaningful tau-PET signal. For Case #3, MRI showed cortical atrophy and severe white matter disease, and tau-PET revealed significantly elevated MTL tau burden relative to controls (w-score=1.90, 97th%ile) as well as focal high signal in the dorsal frontal lobe (overall frontal region w-score=0.64, 74th%ile).
Conclusions:
Low scores on performance validity tests complicate the interpretation of the severity of cognitive deficits, but do not negate the presence of true cognitive impairment or an underlying neurodegenerative disease. In the rapidly developing era of biomarkers, neuroimaging tools can supplement neuropsychological testing to help inform whether cognitive or behavioral changes are related to a neurodegenerative disease.
Patients with persistent post-concussion symptoms (PPCS) experience prolonged recovery (e.g., headache, fatigue, or dizziness) lasting >2 months post injury. These symptoms are thought to be maintained by several biopsychosocial factors including dysregulated stress responses, such as pain catastrophizing, that may drive behavioral avoidance and contribute to mood symptoms and cognitive difficulties. Conditions with similar symptomatology to PPCS (e.g., anxiety disorders, somatosensory disorders, chronic pain, etc.) also exhibit maladaptive thought patterns like pain catastrophizing as well as decrements in certain aspects of cognitive performance; however little is known about how pain catastrophizing might relate to neuropsychological performance in youth with PPCS. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing and neuropsychological performance in youth participants with PPCS.
Participants and Methods:
A prospective case-control study design was used to examine 29 participants between the ages of 13 to 23. Participants were divided into two groups: 1) patients with PPCS (2-16 months post-injury; n = 15) and 2) age-matched, non-injured controls (n = 14). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) to determine degree of catastrophic thinking related to pain experience and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). Neuropsychological performance was assessed using the Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS) and a modified version of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) where performance was evaluated by total correct and error type (i.e., commission and omission) across 5 trials. ANCOVA was used to compare group differences in pain catastrophizing and neuropsychological tests scores while controlling for age and linear regressions examined the relationship between PCS total score and each neuropsychological test score while controlling for level of depression.
Results:
Overall, the PPCS group reported significantly higher levels of pain catastrophizing on the PCS compared to the control group (p < 0.01). For neuropsychological performance, the PPCS group scored significantly lower than the control group on List Learning (p < 0.01), Semantic Fluency (p < 0.05), and List Recall (p < 0.01) on the RBANS and made significantly higher omission errors (but not commission) on the PASAT(p <.01). Higher pain catastrophizing was also associated with poorer neuropsychological performance on the exact same tasks the PPCS group performed worse than controls. There was no significant interaction by group in the impact of PCS scores on neurocognitive performance.
Conclusions:
Compared to controls, youth PPCS patients reported higher levels of pain catastrophizing. Additionally, pain catastrophizing was associated with poorer neuropsychological performance. These findings suggest that increased pain catastrophizing after head injury could contribute to poorer cognitive performance in youth. As such, interventions that target maladaptive cognitive coping styles like pain catastrophizing may be especially helpful for patients with PPCS.
In July 2021, Public Health Wales received two notifications of salmonella gastroenteritis. Both cases has attended the same barbecue to celebrate Eid al–Adha, two days earlier. Additional cases attending the same barbecue were found and an outbreak investigation was initiated. The barbecue was attended by a North African community’s social network. On same day, smaller lunches were held in three homes in the social network. Many people attended both a lunch and the barbecue. Cases were defined as someone with an epidemiological link to the barbecue and/or lunches with diarrhoea and/or vomiting with date of onset following these events. We undertook a cohort study of 36 people attending the barbecue and/or lunch, and a nested case-control study using Firth logistic regression. A communication campaign, sensitive towards different cultural practices, was developed in collaboration with the affected community. Consumption of a traditional raw liver dish, ‘marrara’, at the barbecue was the likely vehicle for infection (Firth logistic regression, aOR: 49.99, 95%CI 1.71–1461.54, p = 0.02). Meat and offal came from two local butchers (same supplier) and samples yielded identical whole genome sequences as cases. Future outbreak investigations should be relevant to the community affected by considering dishes beyond those found in routine questionnaires.
The International Design Engineering Annual (IDEA) Challenge is a virtually hosted hackathon for Engineering Design researchers with aims of: i) generating open access datasets; ii) fostering community between researchers; and, iii) applying great design minds to develop solutions to real design problems. This paper presents the 2022 IDEA challenge and elements of the captured dataset with the aim of providing insights into prototyping behaviours at virtually hosted hackathons, comparing it with the 2021 challenge dataset and providing reflections and learnings from two years of running the challenge. The dataset is shown to provide valuable insights into how designers spend their time at hackathon events and how, why and when prototypes are used during their design processes. The dataset also corroborates the findings from the 2021 dataset, demonstrating the complementarity of physical and sketch prototypes. With this paper, we also invite the wider community to contribute to the IDEA Challenge in future years, either as participants or in using the platform to run their own design studies.
Rapid antigen detection tests (Ag-RDT) for SARS-CoV-2 with emergency use authorization generally include a condition of authorization to evaluate the test’s performance in asymptomatic individuals when used serially. We aim to describe a novel study design that was used to generate regulatory-quality data to evaluate the serial use of Ag-RDT in detecting SARS-CoV-2 virus among asymptomatic individuals.
Methods:
This prospective cohort study used a siteless, digital approach to assess longitudinal performance of Ag-RDT. Individuals over 2 years old from across the USA with no reported COVID-19 symptoms in the 14 days prior to study enrollment were eligible to enroll in this study. Participants throughout the mainland USA were enrolled through a digital platform between October 18, 2021 and February 15, 2022. Participants were asked to test using Ag-RDT and molecular comparators every 48 hours for 15 days. Enrollment demographics, geographic distribution, and SARS-CoV-2 infection rates are reported.
Key Results:
A total of 7361 participants enrolled in the study, and 492 participants tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, including 154 who were asymptomatic and tested negative to start the study. This exceeded the initial enrollment goals of 60 positive participants. We enrolled participants from 44 US states, and geographic distribution of participants shifted in accordance with the changing COVID-19 prevalence nationwide.
Conclusions:
The digital site-less approach employed in the “Test Us At Home” study enabled rapid, efficient, and rigorous evaluation of rapid diagnostics for COVID-19 and can be adapted across research disciplines to optimize study enrollment and accessibility.
The self-interaction spin-2 approach to general relativity (GR) has been extremely influential in the particle physics community. Leaving no doubt regarding its heuristic value, we argue that a view of the metric field of GR as nothing but a stand-in for a self-coupling field in flat spacetime runs into a dilemma: either the view is physically incomplete in so far as it requires recourse to GR after all, or it leads to an absurd multiplication of alternative viewpoints on GR rendering any understanding of the metric field as nothing but a spin-2 field in flat spacetime unjustified.
In November 1995, the Laboratory of Archaeology at the University of Georgia submitted inventories and summaries of Indigenous ancestors and funerary objects in its holdings to comply with the passage of the Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act (NAGPRA). However, after this submission, the Laboratory attempts at consultation with federally recognized descendant Tribal communities who have cultural ties in the state of Georgia were not successful, and NAGPRA-related activities essentially stalled at the Laboratory. Beginning in 2019, the Laboratory's staff recognized a lack of formal NAGPRA policies or standards, which led to a complete reevaluation of the Laboratory's approach to NAGPRA. In essence, it was the Laboratory's renewed engagement with NAGPRA and descendan tribal communities that became the catalyst for change in the Laboratory's philosophy as a curation repository. This shift in thinking set the Laboratory on a path toward building a descendant community–informed institutional integrity (DCIII) level of engagement with consultation and collaborative efforts in all aspects of collections management and archaeological research. In this article, we outline steps that the Laboratory has taken toward implementing meaningful policies and practices created with descendant Tribal communities that both fulfill and extend bounds of NAGPRA compliance.
Over the last decade, the reformed youth justice system has seen increases in the numbers of children and young people in custody, a sharp rise in indeterminate sentences and the continuing deaths of young prisoners. This report brings together contributions from leading experts to critically examine current policy and practice.
Risk of suicide-related behaviors is elevated among military personnel transitioning to civilian life. An earlier report showed that high-risk U.S. Army soldiers could be identified shortly before this transition with a machine learning model that included predictors from administrative systems, self-report surveys, and geospatial data. Based on this result, a Veterans Affairs and Army initiative was launched to evaluate a suicide-prevention intervention for high-risk transitioning soldiers. To make targeting practical, though, a streamlined model and risk calculator were needed that used only a short series of self-report survey questions.
Methods
We revised the original model in a sample of n = 8335 observations from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) who participated in one of three Army STARRS 2011–2014 baseline surveys while in service and in one or more subsequent panel surveys (LS1: 2016–2018, LS2: 2018–2019) after leaving service. We trained ensemble machine learning models with constrained numbers of item-level survey predictors in a 70% training sample. The outcome was self-reported post-transition suicide attempts (SA). The models were validated in the 30% test sample.
Results
Twelve-month post-transition SA prevalence was 1.0% (s.e. = 0.1). The best constrained model, with only 17 predictors, had a test sample ROC-AUC of 0.85 (s.e. = 0.03). The 10–30% of respondents with the highest predicted risk included 44.9–92.5% of 12-month SAs.
Conclusions
An accurate SA risk calculator based on a short self-report survey can target transitioning soldiers shortly before leaving service for intervention to prevent post-transition SA.