Coalition governance divides policy-making influence across multiple parties, making it challenging for voters to accurately attribute responsibility for outcomes. We argue that many voters overcome this challenge by inferring parties’ policy-making influence using a simple heuristic model that integrates a number of readily available and cheaply obtained informational cues about parties (e.g., their roles in government and legislative seat shares)—while ignoring other cues that, while predictive of real-world influence, are not suitable for heuristic inference (e.g., median party status and bargaining power). Using original data from seven surveys in five countries, we show that voters’ attributions of parties’ policy-making influence are consistent with our proposed inferential strategy. Our findings suggest that while voters certainly have blind spots that cause them to misattribute policy responsibility in some situations, their attributions are generally sensible and consistent with the academic research on multiparty policy making.

The concept of exoplanetary habitability is evolving. The driving force is a desire to define the biological potential of planets and identify which can host complex and possibly intelligent life. To assess this in a meaningful manner, climate models need to be applied to realistic surfaces. However, the vast majority of climate models are developed using generic aquaplanet, or swamp planet, scenarios that provide uniform, surface frictional coefficients. However, aside from planets with largely uniform oceans, these models are not obviously useful when it comes to understanding the impact of climate on biodiversity. Here, we show that contrary to expectation, the aquaplanet models can be directly applied to planets with a variety of land areas, with little need for modification. Using this premise, this paper provides a simple mathematical framework that may be applied to more complex planetary surfaces and identifies the majority of the climate-model components that are needed to accurately determine the biological potential of habitable exoplanets. As a proof-of-concept, an available climate model for Proxima b is used to determine its biological potential, given a suitable atmosphere.

The maximum height trees can grow on Earth is around 122–130 m. The height is constrained by two factors: the availability of water, and where water is not limiting, the pressure available to drive the column of water along the xylem vessels against the pull of gravity (cohesion tension). In turn the height of trees impacts the biodiversity of the environment in a number of ways. On Earth the largest trees are found in maritime temperate environments along the Pacific Northwest coasts of northern California and southern Oregon. These forests provide a large number of secondary habitats for species and serve as moisture pumps that return significant volumes of water to the lower atmosphere. In this work, we apply simple mathematical rules to illustrate how super-terran planets will have significantly smaller trees, with concomitant effects on the habitability of the planet. We also consider the impact of varying tree height on climate models.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Objectives and goals of this study will be to: (1) compare fecal microbiota and fecal organic acids in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) patients and controls and (2) investigate the association between colonic transit and fecal microbiota in IBS patients and controls. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We propose an investigation of fecal organic acids, colonic transit and fecal microbiota in 36 IBS patients and 18 healthy controls. The target population will be adults ages 18–65 years meeting Rome IV criteria for IBS (both diarrhea- and constipation-predominant, IBS-D and IBS-C) and asymptomatic controls. Exclusion criteria are: (a) history of microscopic colitis, inflammatory bowel disease, celiac disease, visceral cancer, chronic infectious disease, immunodeficiency, uncontrolled thyroid disease, liver disease, or elevated AST/ALT>2.0× the upper limit of normal, (b) prior radiation therapy of the abdomen or abdominal surgeries with the exception of appendectomy or cholecystectomy >6 months before study initiation, (c) ingestion of prescription, over the counter, or herbal medications affecting gastrointestinal transit or study interpretation within 6 months of study initiation for controls or within 2 days before study initiation for IBS patients, (d) pregnant females, (e) antibiotic usage within 3 months before study participation, (f) prebiotic or probiotic usage within the 2 weeks before study initiation, (g) tobacco users. Primary outcomes will be fecal bile acid excretion and profile, short-chain fatty acid excretion and profile, colonic transit, and fecal microbiota. Secondary outcomes will be stool characteristics based on responses to validated bowel diaries. Stool samples will be collected from participants during the last 2 days of a 4-day 100 g fat diet and split into 3 samples for fecal microbiota, SCFA, and bile acid analysis and frozen. Frozen aliquots will be shipped to the Metabolite Profiling Facility at Purdue University and the Mayo Clinic Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology for SCFA and bile acid measurements, respectively. Analysis of fecal microbiota will be performed in the research laboratory of Dr David Nelson in collaboration with bioinformatics expertise affiliated with the Nelson lab. Colonic transit time will be measured with the previously validated method using radio-opaque markers. Generalized linear models will be used as the analysis framework for comparing study endpoints among groups. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: This study seeks to examine the innovative concept that specific microbial signatures are associated with increased fecal excretion of organic acids to provide unique insights on a potential mechanistic link between altered intraluminal organic acids and fecal microbiota. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Results may lead to development of targets for novel therapies and diagnostic biomarkers for IBS, emphasizing the role of the fecal metabolome.

Planets that orbit M-class dwarf stars in their habitable zones are expected to become tidally-locked in the first billion years of their history. Simulations of potentially habitable planets orbiting K and G-class stars also suggest that many will become tidally-locked or become pseudo-synchronous rotators in a similar time frame where certain criteria are fulfilled. Simple models suggest that such planets will experience climatic regions organized in broadly concentric bands around the sub-stellar point, where irradiation is maximal. Here, we develop some of the quantitative, as well as the qualitative impacts of such climate on the evolutionary potential of life on such worlds, incorporating the effects of topography and ocean currents on potential biological diversity. By comparing atmospheric circulation models with terrestrial circulation and biological diversity, we are able to construct viable thought models of biological potential. While we await the generation of atmospheric circulation models that incorporate topography and varying subaerial landscape, these models can be used as a starting point to determine the overall evolutionary potential of such worlds. The planets in these thought-models have significant differences in their distribution of habitability that may not be apparent from simple climate modelling.

‘Where is everybody?’ remarked Enrico Fermi, leading to the famous, and as yet unanswered ‘Fermi's Paradox’ as this remark has come to be known. While there are a number of possible solutions that vary from the distances are too great; the cost prohibitive or civilizations naturally decline or eliminate themselves before interstellar travel becomes possible, none of these are intellectually satisfying. More recently, Manasvi Lingam and Abraham Loeb suggested that for those planets orbiting red dwarfs, atmospheric erosion may be a partial solution to this ‘paradox’. Such planets may experience greater exposure to stellar winds and/or extreme ultraviolet and X-radiation (henceforth abbreviated to EUV). While this proposition is undeniably reasonable, it is likely incomplete. A more fundamental limitation on the development of biological complexity is imposed by plate tectonics: time. On asynchronously rotating planets, the habitable area for any species is defined by latitudinal bands that encompass the globe. Conversely, on synchronous rotators, the comparative habitable area is limited to broadly concentric regions surrounding the Sub-Stellar Point (SSP). Given that terrestrial mammals and from them humans evolved in tropical or subtropical regions, the geographical area subtended with these conditions is likely to be smaller and transected by suitable landmasses for shorter periods than on asynchronously rotating worlds. Habitable subaerial regions for individual species are therefore more limited in area. This leads to a greater limitation on the temporal intervals over which biological complexity can evolve.