Celiac disease (CD), an autoimmune disorder triggered by gluten, impacts about one percent of the population. Only one-third receive a diagnosis, leaving the majority unaware of their condition. Untreated CD can lead to gut lining damage, resulting in malnutrition, anemia, and osteoporosis. Our primary goal was to identify at-risk groups and assess the cost-effectiveness of active case finding in primary care.

Our methodology involved systematic reviews and meta-analyses focusing on the accuracy of CD risk factors (chronic conditions and symptoms) and diagnostic tests (serological and genetic). Prediction models, based on identified risk factors, were developed for identifying individuals who would benefit from CD testing in routine primary care. Additionally, an online survey gauged individuals’ preferences regarding diagnostic certainty before initiating a gluten-free diet. This information informed the development of economic models evaluating the cost-effectiveness of various active case finding strategies.

Individuals with dermatitis herpetiformis, a family history of CD, migraine, anemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis, or chronic liver disease showed one and a half to two times higher risk of having CD. IgA tTG, and EMA demonstrated good diagnostic accuracy. Genetic tests showed high sensitivity but low specificity. Survey results indicated substantial variation in preference for certainty from a blood test before initiating a gluten-free diet. Cost-effectiveness analyses showed that, in adults, IgA tTG at a one percent pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening) was the most cost effective. For non-population screening strategies, IgA EMA plus HLA was most cost effective. There was substantial uncertainty in economic model results.

While population-based screening with IgA tTG appears the most cost effective in adults, decisions for implementation should not solely rely on economic analyses. Future research should explore whether population-based CD screening aligns with UK National Screening Committee criteria and requires a long-term randomized controlled trial of screening strategies.

The majority of studies of mental health interventions for young adolescents have only evaluated short-term benefits. This study evaluated the longer-term effectiveness of a non-specialist delivered group-based intervention (Early Adolescent Skills for Emotions; EASE) to improve young adolescents’ mental health.

In this single-blind, parallel, controlled trial, Syrian refugees aged 10-14 years in Jordan who screened positive for psychological distress were randomised to receive either EASE or enhanced usual care (EUC). Primary outcomes were scores on the Paediatric Symptom Checklist (PSC) assessed at Week 0, 8-weeks, 3-months, and 12 months after treatment. Secondary outcomes were disability, posttraumatic stress, school belongingness, wellbeing, and caregivers’ reports of distress, parenting behaviour, and their perceived children’s mental health.

Between June, 2019 and January, 2020, 185 adolescents were assigned to EASE and 286 to EUC, and 149 (80.5%) and 225 (78.7%) were retained at 12 months, respectively. At 12 months there were no significant differences between treatment conditions, except that EASE was associated with less reduction in depression (estimated mean difference -1.6, 95% CI –3.2 to -0.1; p=.03; effect size, -0.3), and a greater sense of school belonging (estimated mean difference -0.3, 95% CI –5.7 to -0.2; p=.03; effect size, 5.0).

Although EASE led to significant reductions in internalising problems, caregiver distress, and harsh disciplinary parenting at 3-months, these improvements were not maintained at 12 months relative to EUC. Scalable psychological interventions for young adolescents need to consider their ongoing mental health needs. Prospectively registered: ACTRN12619000341123.

Relapse and recurrence of depression are common, contributing to the overall burden of depression globally. Accurate prediction of relapse or recurrence while patients are well would allow the identification of high-risk individuals and may effectively guide the allocation of interventions to prevent relapse and recurrence.

To review prognostic models developed to predict the risk of relapse, recurrence, sustained remission, or recovery in adults with remitted major depressive disorder.

We searched the Cochrane Library (current issue); Ovid MEDLINE (1946 onwards); Ovid Embase (1980 onwards); Ovid PsycINFO (1806 onwards); and Web of Science (1900 onwards) up to May 2021. We included development and external validation studies of multivariable prognostic models. We assessed risk of bias of included studies using the Prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST).

We identified 12 eligible prognostic model studies (11 unique prognostic models): 8 model development-only studies, 3 model development and external validation studies and 1 external validation-only study. Multiple estimates of performance measures were not available and meta-analysis was therefore not necessary. Eleven out of the 12 included studies were assessed as being at high overall risk of bias and none examined clinical utility.

Due to high risk of bias of the included studies, poor predictive performance and limited external validation of the models identified, presently available clinical prediction models for relapse and recurrence of depression are not yet sufficiently developed for deploying in clinical settings. There is a need for improved prognosis research in this clinical area and future studies should conform to best practice methodological and reporting guidelines.

Understanding the relative risks of maintenance treatment versus discontinuation of antipsychotics following remission in first episode psychosis (FEP) is an important area of practice.

A systematic review and meta-analysis. Prospective experimental studies including a parallel control group were identified to compare maintenance antipsychotic treatment with total discontinuation or medication discontinuation strategies following remission in FEP.

Seven studies were included. Relapse rates were higher in the discontinuation group (53%; 95% CIs: 39%, 68%; N = 290) compared with maintenance treatment group (19%; 95% CIs: 0.05%, 37%; N = 230). In subgroup analyses, risk difference of relapse was lower in studies with a longer follow-up period, a targeted discontinuation strategy, a higher relapse threshold, a larger sample size, and samples with patients excluded for drug or alcohol dependency. Insufficient studies included psychosocial functioning outcomes for a meta-analysis.

There is a higher risk of relapse for those who undergo total or targeted discontinuation strategies compared with maintenance antipsychotics in FEP samples. The effect size is moderate and the risk difference is lower in trials of targeted discontinuation strategies.

A.T. has received honoraria and support from Janssen-Cilag and Otsuka Pharmaceuticals for meetings and has been has been an investigator on unrestricted investigator-initiated trials funded by AstraZeneca and Janssen-Cilag. He has also previously held a Pfizer Neurosciences Research Grant. S.M. has received sponsorship from Otsuka and Lundbeck to attend an academic congress and owns shares in GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca. J.H. has attended meetings supported by Sunovion Pharmaceuticals.

Individuals with a borderline personality disorder (BPD) suffer from a constellation of rapidly shifting emotional, interpersonal, and behavioral symptoms. The menstrual cycle may contribute to symptom instability among females with this disorder.

Fifteen healthy, unmedicated females with BPD and without dysmenorrhea reported daily symptoms across 35 days. Urine luteinizing hormone and salivary progesterone (P4) were used to confirm ovulation and cycle phase. Cyclical worsening of symptoms was evaluated using (1) phase contrasts in multilevel models and (2) the Carolina Premenstrual Assessment Scoring System (C-PASS), a protocol for evaluating clinically significant cycle effects on symptoms.

Most symptoms demonstrated midluteal worsening, a perimenstrual peak, and resolution of symptoms in the follicular or ovulatory phase. Post-hoc correlations with person-centered progesterone revealed negative correlations with most symptoms. Depressive symptoms showed an unexpected delayed pattern in which baseline levels of symptoms were observed in the ovulatory and midluteal phases, and exacerbations were observed during both the perimenstrual and follicular phases. The majority of participants met C-PASS criteria for clinically significant (⩾30%) symptom exacerbation. All participants met the emotional instability criterion of BPD, and no participant met DSM-5 criteria for premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD).

Females with BPD may be at elevated risk for perimenstrual worsening of emotional symptoms. Longitudinal studies with fine-grained hormonal measurement as well as hormonal experiments are needed to determine the pathophysiology of perimenstrual exacerbation in BPD.

Comorbid post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with poorer outcomes of other disorders, but is treatable.

To estimate the frequency of clinically undetected PTSD in secondary care.

A systematic review of studies that screened for PTSD and reported on PTSD documentation in clinical records. Frequency of undetected PTSD was estimated, and reasons for heterogeneity explored.

The median proportion of participants with undetected PTSD (29 studies) was 28.6% (interquartile range 18.2–38.6%). There was substantial heterogeneity, with studies conducted in the USA and those with the highest proportions of in-patients and patients with psychotic disorder reporting higher frequencies of undetected PTSD.

Undetected PTSD is common in secondary care, even if the true value is at the lower limit of the estimates reported here. Trials examining the impact of routine screening for PTSD are required to determine whether such programmes should be standard procedure for all mental health services.

None.