Empirical glacier mass-balance models are commonly used in assessments of glacier and runoff evolution. Recent satellite-borne geodetic mass-balance observations of global coverage facilitate large-scale model calibration that previously relied on sparse in situ observations of glacier mass change. Geodetic observations constitute temporally aggregated mass-balance signals with significant uncertainty, raising questions about the role of observations with different temporal resolutions and uncertainties in constraining model parameters. We employ a Bayesian approach and demonstrate the sensitivity of parameter values to commonly used mass-balance observations of seasonal, annual and decadal resolution with uncertainties characteristic to in situ and satellite-borne observations. For glaciers along a continentality gradient in Norway, the use of annual mass balances results in around 20% lower magnitude of modelled ablation and accumulation (1960–2020), compared to employing seasonal balances. Decadal mass balance also underestimates magnitudes of ablation and accumulation, but parameter values are strongly influenced by the prior distribution. The datasets yield similar estimates of annual mass balance with different margins of uncertainty. Decadal observations are afflicted with considerable uncertainty in mass-balance sensitivity due to high parameter uncertainty. Our results highlight the importance of seasonal observations when model applications require accurate magnitudes of ablation, e.g. to estimate meltwater runoff.

Projected climate warming and wettening will have a major impact on the state of glaciers and seasonal snow in High Arctic regions. Following up on a historical simulation (1957–2018) for Svalbard, we make future projections of glacier climatic mass balance (CMB), snow conditions on glaciers and land, and runoff, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for 2019–60. We find that the average CMB for Svalbard glaciers, which was weakly positive during 1957–2018, becomes negative at an accelerating rate during 2019–60 for both RCP scenarios. Modelled mass loss is most pronounced in southern Svalbard, where the equilibrium line altitude is predicted to rise well above the hypsometry peak, leading to the first occurrences of zero accumulation-area ratio already by the 2030s. In parallel with firn line retreat, the total pore volume in snow and firn drops by as much as 70–80% in 2060, compared to 2018. Total refreezing remains largely unchanged, despite a marked change in the seasonal pattern towards increased refreezing in winter. Finally, we find pronounced shortening of the snow season, while combined runoff from glaciers and land more than doubles from 1957–2018 to 2019–60, for both scenarios.

The Kongsfjord basin in northwest Svalbard is the site of a number of interdisciplinary studies concerned with the effect of fresh water from seasonal snow and glacier melt on the physical and biological environment. We use an energy-balance model coupled with a subsurface snow model to simulate the long-term climatic mass-balance evolution of the glaciers and the seasonal snow development of nonglacierized parts of the Kongsfjord basin. Runoff from both glacierized and nonglacierized parts of the basin is simulated to quantify the fresh water flux to the fjord. The model is calibrated with long-term mass-balance data measured at four glaciers, and with automatic weather station data. The simulated area-averaged climatic mass balance for the whole basin is positive (+0.23 m w.e. a−1) over the period 1980–2016; however, the trend for net mass balance is not statistically significant over the simulation period, despite the observed ongoing summer warming. Refreezing equals 0.24 m w.e. a−1, which is equivalent to 17% of the total mass gain from precipitation and moisture deposition. Total runoff comprises contributions from seasonal snow in the nonglacierized area (16%) and glacier discharge (84%). Model time series shows a significant increasing trend for annual glacier runoff (6.83 × 106 m3 a−1) over the simulation period.

Assessing the impact of possible climate change on the water resources of glacierized areas requires a reliable model of the climate–glacier-mass-balance relationship. In this study, we simulate the mass-balance evolution of Engabreen, Norway, using a simple mass-balance model based on daily temperature and precipitation data from a nearby climate station. Ablation is calculated using a distributed temperature-index method including potential direct solar radiation, while accumulation is distributed linearly with elevation. The model was run for the period 1974/75–2001/02, for which annual mass-balance measurements and meteorological data are available. Parameter values were determined by a multi-criteria validation including point measurements of mass balance, mass-balance gradients and specific mass balance. The modelled results fit the observed mass balance well. Simple sensitivity experiments indicate a high sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature changes, as expected for maritime glaciers. The results suggest, further, that the mass balance of Engabreen is more sensitive to warming during summer than during winter, while precipitation changes affect almost exclusively the winter balance.

In July 2003 an ice-dammed lake was suddenly drained in an outburst flood at Qorlortorssup tasia in south Greenland, the site of a projected hydropower station. The lake developed during the first decades of the 20th century as a result of the recession of the ice cap in this area. It used to drain over a shallow rock spillway towards Sermeq kangigdleq, the adjacent outlet glacier to the north. In order to assess the hazard potential and the additional water contribution from the enlarged catchment, the glacial lake and its surroundings were investigated. Based on the analysis of available historical data, field investigations and model results, the history of lake generation and the sudden outbreak were reconstructed. With the lake formation the ice dam lost its connection to the ice cap. The flood was initiated after the ice surface became low enough for the lake water to overflow the glacier towards Qorlortorssup tasia basin, creating a gully through the glacier which drained approximately 55 × 106 m3 of water over a period of 8-10 days. Thanks to the stability of the dam and the downstream damping of the flood, there was no serious threat to a farm that is situated close to the planned power-station site. In the future, we expect much smaller floods, as a result of partial closure of the gully by ice movement or snowdrift in the winter. The new drainage pattern into Qorlortorssup tasia basin, however, will be a permanent situation. The amount of this new water contribution can only be roughly estimated since the exact size of the drainage basin is not well known.

This study evaluates sensitivities of glacier mass balance and runoff to both annual and monthly perturbations in air temperature and precipitation at four highly glacierized catchments: Engabreen in northern Norway and Ålfotbreen, Nigardsbreen and Storbreen, which are aligned along a west–east profile in southern Norway. The glacier mass-balance sensitivities to changes in annual air temperature range from 1.74 m w.e. K−1 for Ålfotbreen to 0.55 m w.e. K−1 for Storbreen, the most maritime and the most continental glaciers in this study, respectively. The runoff sensitivities of all catchments are 20–25% per degree temperature change and 6–18% for a 30% precipitation change. A seasonality of the sensitivities becomes apparent. With increasing continentality, the sensitivity of mass balance and runoff to temperature perturbations during summer increases, and the sensitivity of annual runoff to both temperature and precipitation perturbations is constricted towards changes during the ablation period. Comparing sensitivities in northern and southern Norway, as well as the variability across southern Norway, reveals that continentality influences sensitivities more than latitude does.

Glacier mass balance in Norway is only observed over a small portion (<15%) of the glacierized surface and only for short time periods (<10 years) for most sites. To provide a comprehensive overview of the temporal mass-balance evolution, we modeled surface mass balance for the glacierized area of mainland Norway from 1961 to 2010. The model is forced by operationally gridded daily temperature and precipitation fields which are available at 1 km horizontal resolution from 1957 until the present. The applied mass-balance model accounts for melting of snow and ice by using a distributed temperature-index approach. The precipitation input is corrected to obtain agreement between modeled and observed winter mass balance, and a melt factor and two radiation coefficients are optimized to the corresponding summer balance. The model results show positive trends of winter balance between 1961 and 2000 followed by a remarkable decrease in both summer and winter balances which resulted in an average annual balance of –0.86 ± 0.15 m w.e. a-1 between 2000 and 2010 after four decades of zero to slightly positive annual mass balances.

We apply a physically based coupled surface energy balance and snowpack model to a site close to the equilibrium line on Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard, over the 2004-08 melt seasons, to explain contributions to the energy available for melting and to quantify the significance of refreezing. The model is forced using in situ meteorological measurements and precipitation downscaled from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Applying a Monte Carlo approach to determine the tunable parameters of the model, we estimate the uncertainty related to the choice of parameter values. Multiple criteria are evaluated to identify well-performing parameter combinations, evaluating the model performance with respect to longwave outgoing radiation, snow and ice temperatures and surface displacement. On average, over the investigated melt seasons (1 June to 15 September) net radiation and sensible heat contributed 90 ± 2% and 10 ± 2%, respectively, to the mean energy available for melting snow and ice. The energy consumed by subsurface heat exchange reduced runoff by 15±2% in 2004 and 49±3% in 2008. Refreezing of meltwater and rain was estimated to be 0.37 ± 0.04 m w.e. a-1 on average over the five seasons, which represents a considerable reduction of mass loss during summer. Our findings suggest that refreezing potentially exerts a decisive control on glacier mass balance in persistently snow- or firn-covered areas.