The Personalized Advantage Index (PAI) shows promise as a method for identifying the most effective treatment for individual patients. Previous studies have demonstrated its utility in retrospective evaluations across various settings. In this study, we explored the effect of different methodological choices in predictive modelling underlying the PAI.

Our approach involved a two-step procedure. First, we conducted a review of prior studies utilizing the PAI, evaluating each study using the Prediction model study Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). We specifically assessed whether the studies adhered to two standards of predictive modeling: refraining from using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO CV) and preventing data leakage. Second, we examined the impact of deviating from these methodological standards in real data. We employed both a traditional approach violating these standards and an advanced approach implementing them in two large-scale datasets, PANIC-net (n = 261) and Protect-AD (n = 614).

The PROBAST-rating revealed a substantial risk of bias across studies, primarily due to inappropriate methodological choices. Most studies did not adhere to the examined prediction modeling standards, employing LOO CV and allowing data leakage. The comparison between the traditional and advanced approach revealed that ignoring these standards could systematically overestimate the utility of the PAI.

Our study cautions that violating standards in predictive modeling may strongly influence the evaluation of the PAI's utility, possibly leading to false positive results. To support an unbiased evaluation, crucial for potential clinical application, we provide a low-bias, openly accessible, and meticulously annotated script implementing the PAI.

Few community-based studies have examined the impact of life events, life conditions and life changes on the course of depression. This paper examines associations of life events on depressive symptom onset, improvement, and stability.

Direct interview data from the Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology Study (EDSP), a 4–5 year prospective-longitudinal design based on a representative community sample of adolescents and young adults, aged 14–24 years at baseline, are used. Life events were measured using the Munich Event-Questionnaire (MEL) consisting of 83 explicit items from various social role areas and subscales for the assessment of life event clusters categorized according to dimensions such as positive and negative and controllable and uncontrollable. Depressive disorders were assessed with the DSM-IV version of the Munich Composite Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI). Multiple logistic regression analyses examined the effects of 22 predictors on the course of depression (onset, improvement, stability).

Younger age, low social class, negative and stressful life events linked to the family were associated with increased risk of new onset of depression. Anxiety was a significant independent predictor of new onset of depression. Absence of stressful school and family events was related to improvement in depression. The weighted total number of life events predicted stable depression.

The association between life events and the course of depression appears to vary according to the outcome being examined, with different clusters of life events differentially predicting onset, improvement, and stability.

Although somatoform disorders are assumed to be chronic clinical conditions, epidemiological knowledge on their natural course based on representative samples is not available.

Data come from a prospective epidemiologic study of adolescents and young adults in Munich, Germany. Respondents’ diagnoses (N = 2548) at baseline and follow-up on average 42 months later are considered. The follow-up incidence, stability as well as selected baseline risk factors (sociodemographics, psychopathology, trauma exposure) for the incidence and stability of somatoform disorders and syndromes are prospectively examined. Diagnostic information was assessed by using the standardized Munich-Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI).

Over the follow-up period, incidence rate for any of the covered somatoform diagnoses was 25.7%. Stability for the overall group of any somatoform disorder/syndrome was 48%. Female gender, lower social class, the experience of any substance use, anxiety and affective disorder as well as the experience of traumatic sexual and physical threat events predicted new onsets of somatoform conditions, while stability was predicted by being female, prior existing substance use, affective and eating disorders as well as the experience of a serious accident.

At least for a substantial proportion of individuals, the overall picture of somatization seems to be relatively stable, but with fluctuation in the symptom picture over time. Being female, the experience of substance use as well as anxiety disorder seem to constitute risk factors for the onset of new somatoform conditions as well as for a stable course over time.

Empirical data on the use of services due to mental health problems in older adults in Europe is lacking. The objective of this study is to identify factors associated with service utilization in the elderly.

As part of the MentDis_ICF65+ study, N = 3,142 people aged 65–84 living in the community in six European and associated countries were interviewed. Based on Andersen's behavioral model predisposing, enabling, and need factors were analyzed with logistic regression analyses.

Overall, 7% of elderly and 11% of those with a mental disorder had used a service due to mental health problems in the last 12 months. Factors significantly associated with underuse were male sex, lower education, living in the London catchment area, higher functional impairment and more comorbid mental disorders. The most frequently reported barrier to service use was personal beliefs, e.g. “I can deal with my problem on my own” (90%).

Underutilization of mental health services among older people in the European community is common and interventions are needed to achieve an adequate use of services.

Except for dementia and depression, little is known about common mental disorders in elderly people.

To estimate current, 12-month and lifetime prevalence rates of mental disorders in different European and associated countries using a standardised diagnostic interview adapted to measure the cognitive needs of elderly people.

The MentDis_ICF65+ study is based on an age-stratified, random sample of 3142 older men and women (65–84 years) living in selected catchment community areas of participating countries.

One in two individuals had experienced a mental disorder in their lifetime, one in three within the past year and nearly one in four currently had a mental disorder. The most prevalent disorders were anxiety disorders, followed by affective and substance-related disorders.

Compared with previous studies we found substantially higher prevalence rates for most mental disorders. These findings underscore the need for improving diagnostic assessments adapted to the cognitive capacity of elderly people. There is a need to raise awareness of psychosocial problems in elderly people and to deliver high-quality mental health services to these individuals.

This paper provides nationally representative data on how current and past mental disorders are related to functional disability and health-related quality of life (QoL).

Results are based on a nationally representative sample (DEGS1-MH; n = 4483 aged 18–79). Respondents were examined by clinical interviewers with the DSM-IV Composite International Diagnostic Interview (DIA-X/M-CIDI). Functional disability, i.e. number of disability days in the past 4 weeks, and QoL, i.e. mental (MCS) and physical (PCS) component scale of the SF-36V2, were examined in subjects with 12-month mental disorders (= active cases [AC]) and compared to (a) subjects who never met diagnostic criteria (= unaffected individuals [UAI]), and (b) those with a history of mental disorders but not meeting the diagnostic criteria in the past 12 months (= non-active cases [NAC]; partially or fully remitted).

In comparison to UAI (mean: 1.9), AC reveals a 2–3 fold disability days/month (5.4, P < .001) and a substantially reduced MCS (UAI: 52.1; AC: 43.3, P < .001). NAC had a similar number of disability days as UAI, but significantly reduced MCS scores (49.9; P < .001). Disability days and QoL decrements were highest in internalizing disorders including somatoform disorders and most pronounced in comorbid cases.

By and large, findings of a previous study were confirmed and extended for this nationally representative German sample. 12-month mental disorders, particularly internalizing, including somatoform disorders, are associated with high levels of disability and increased health-related QoL decrements. Partial or complete remission of the mental disorders is associated with a normalization of the numbers of disability days.

This article reports on the test–retest reliability and sensitivity to change of a set of brief dimensional self-rating questionnaires for social anxiety disorder (SAD-D), specific phobia (SP-D), agoraphobia (AG-D), panic disorder (PD-D), and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD-D), as well as a general cross-cutting anxiety scale (Cross-D), which were developed to supplement categorical diagnoses in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition (DSM-5).

The German versions of the dimensional anxiety scales were administered to 218 students followed up approximately 2 weeks later (Study 1) and 55 outpatients (23 with anxiety diagnoses) followed-up 1 year later (Study 2). Probable diagnostic status in students was determined by the DIA-X/M-CIDI stem screening-questionnaire (SSQ). In the clinical sample, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV) diagnoses were assessed at Time 1 using the DIA-X/M-CIDI. At Time 2, the patient-version of the Clinical Global Impression—Improvement scale (CGI-I) was applied to assess change.

Good psychometric properties, including high test–retest reliability, were found for the dimensional scales except for SP-D. In outpatients, improvement at Time 2 was associated with significant decrease in PD-D, GAD-D, and Cross-D scores.

Major advantages of the scales include that they are brief, concise, and based on a consistent template to measure the cognitive, physiological, and behavioral symptoms of fear and anxiety. Further replication in larger samples is needed. Given its modest psychometric properties, SP-D needs refinement.

Increasing evidence from diverse samples suggests clinical utility of the dimensional anxiety scales.

Although (hypo)manic symptoms are common in adolescence, transition to adult bipolar disorder is infrequent.

To examine whether the risk of transition to bipolar disorder is conditional on the extent of persistence of subthreshold affective phenotypes.

In a 10-year prospective community cohort study of 3021 adolescents and young adults, the association between persistence of affective symptoms over 3 years and the 10-year clinical outcomes of incident DSM–IV (hypo)manic episodes and incident use of mental healthcare was assessed.

Transition to clinical outcome was associated with persistence of symptoms in a dose-dependent manner. Around 30–40% of clinical outcomes could be traced to prior persistence of affective symptoms.

In a substantial proportion of individuals, onset of clinical bipolar disorder may be seen as the poor outcome of a developmentally common and usually transitory non-clinical bipolar phenotype.

Although positive effects of physical activity on mental health indicators have been reported, the relationship between physical activity and the development of specific mental disorders is unclear.

A cross-sectional (12-month) and prospective-longitudinal epidemiological study over 4 years in a community cohort of 2548 individuals, aged 14–24 years at outset of the study. Physical activity and mental disorders were assessed by the DSM-IV Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) with an embedded physical activity module. Multiple logistic regression analyses controlling for age, gender and educational status were used to determine the cross-sectional and prospective associations of mental disorders and physical activity.

Cross-sectionally, regular physical activity was associated with a decreased prevalence of any and co-morbid mental disorder, due to lower rates of substance use disorders, anxiety disorders and dysthymia. Prospectively, subjects with regular physical activity had a substantially lower overall incidence of any and co-morbid mental disorder, and also a lower incidence of anxiety, somatoform and dysthymic disorder. By contrast, the incidence of bipolar disorder was increased among those with regular physical activity at baseline. In terms of the population attributable fraction (PAF), the potential for preventive effects of physical activity was considerably higher for men than for women.

Regular physical activity is associated with a substantially reduced risk for some, but not all, mental disorders and also seems to reduce the degree of co-morbidity. Further examination of the evidently complex mechanisms and pathways underlying these associations might reveal promising new research targets and procedures for targeted prevention.

The reported link between psychological trauma and onset of psychosis remains controversial.

To examine associations between self-reported psychological trauma and psychotic symptoms as a function of prior evidence of vulnerability to psychosis (psychosis proneness).

At baseline, 2524 adolescents aged 14–24 years provided self-reports on psychological trauma and psychosis proneness, and at follow-up (on average 42 months later) participants were interviewed for presence of psychotic symptoms.

Self-reported trauma was associated with psychotic symptoms, in particular at more severe levels (adjusted OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.16–3.08) and following trauma associated with intense fear, helplessness or horror. The risk difference between those with and without self-reported trauma at baseline was 7% in the group with baseline psychosis proneness, but only 1.8% in those without (adjusted test for difference between these two effect sizes: χ2=4.6, P=0.032).

Exposure to psychological trauma may increase the risk of psychotic symptoms in people vulnerable to psychosis.