Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) shows spatiotemporal heterogeneity in China. A spatiotemporal filtering model was constructed and applied to HFMD data to explore the underlying spatiotemporal structure of the disease and determine the impact of different spatiotemporal weight matrices on the results. HFMD cases and covariate data in East China were collected between 2009 and 2015. The different spatiotemporal weight matrices formed by Rook, K-nearest neighbour (KNN; K = 1), distance, and second-order spatial weight matrices (SO-SWM) with first-order temporal weight matrices in contemporaneous and lagged forms were decomposed, and spatiotemporal filtering model was constructed by selecting eigenvectors according to MC and the AIC. We used MI, standard deviation of the regression coefficients, and five indices (AIC, BIC, DIC, R2, and MSE) to compare the spatiotemporal filtering model with a Bayesian spatiotemporal model. The eigenvectors effectively removed spatial correlation in the model residuals (Moran’s I < 0.2, p > 0.05). The Bayesian spatiotemporal model’s Rook weight matrix outperformed others. The spatiotemporal filtering model with SO-SWM was superior, as shown by lower AIC (92,029.60), BIC (92,681.20), and MSE (418,022.7) values, and higher R2 (0.56) value. All spatiotemporal contemporaneous structures outperformed the lagged structures. Additionally, eigenvector maps from the Rook and SO-SWM closely resembled incidence patterns of HFMD.

Surfactant transport is central to a diverse range of natural phenomena with numerous practical applications in physics and engineering. Surprisingly, this process remains relatively poorly understood at the molecular scale. Here, we use non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) simulations to study the spreading of sodium dodecyl sulphate on a thin film of liquid water. The molecular form of the control volume is extended to a coordinate system moving with the liquid–vapour interface to track surfactant spreading. We use this to compare the NEMD results to the continuum description of surfactant transport on an interface. By including the molecular details in the continuum model, we establish that the transport equation preserves substantial accuracy in capturing the underlying physics. Moreover, the relative importance of the different mechanisms involved in the transport process is identified. Consequently, we derive a novel exact molecular equation for surfactant transport along a deforming surface. Close agreement between the two conceptually different approaches, i.e. NEMD simulations and the numerical solution of the continuum equation, is found as measured by the surfactant concentration profiles, and the time dependence of the so-called spreading length. The current study focuses on a relatively simple specific solvent–surfactant system, and the observed agreement with the continuum model may not arise for more complicated industrially relevant surfactants and anti-foaming agents. In such cases, the continuum approach may fail to predict accompanying phase transitions, which can still be captured through the NEMD framework.

Decisions to trust in strategic situations involve ambiguity (unknown probabilities). Despite many theoretical studies on ambiguity in game theory, empirical studies have lagged behind due to a lack of measurement methods, where separating ambiguity attitudes from beliefs is crucial. Baillon et al. (Econometrica, 2018b) introduced a method that allows for such a separation for individual choice. We extend this method to strategic situations and apply it to the trust game, providing new insights. People’s ambiguity attitudes and beliefs both matter for their trust decisions. People who are more ambiguity averse decide to trust less, and people with more optimistic beliefs about others’ trustworthiness decide to trust more. However, people who are more a-insensitive (insufficient discrimination between different likelihood levels) are less likely to act upon their beliefs. Our measurement of beliefs, free from contamination by ambiguity attitudes, shows that traditional introspective trust survey measures capture trust in the commonly accepted sense of belief in trustworthiness of others. Further, trustworthy people also decide to trust more due to their beliefs that others are similar to themselves. This paper shows that applications of ambiguity theories to game theory can bring useful new empirical insights.

In this paper, we present and evaluate a novel Bayesian regime-switching zero-inflated multilevel Poisson (RS-ZIMLP) regression model for forecasting alcohol use dynamics. The model partitions individuals’ data into two phases, known as regimes, with: (1) a zero-inflation regime that is used to accommodate high instances of zeros (non-drinking) and (2) a multilevel Poisson regression regime in which variations in individuals’ log-transformed average rates of alcohol use are captured by means of an autoregressive process with exogenous predictors and a person-specific intercept. The times at which individuals are in each regime are unknown, but may be estimated from the data. We assume that the regime indicator follows a first-order Markov process as related to exogenous predictors of interest. The forecast performance of the proposed model was evaluated using a Monte Carlo simulation study and further demonstrated using substance use and spatial covariate data from the Colorado Online Twin Study (CoTwins). Results showed that the proposed model yielded better forecast performance compared to a baseline model which predicted all cases as non-drinking and a reduced ZIMLP model without the RS structure, as indicated by higher AUC (the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) scores, and lower mean absolute errors (MAEs) and root-mean-square errors (RMSEs). The improvements in forecast performance were even more pronounced when we limited the comparisons to participants who showed at least one instance of transition to drinking.

The Aerospace Integration Research Centre (AIRC) at Cranfield University offers industry and academia an open environment to explore the opportunities for efficient integration of aircraft systems. As a part of the centre, Cranfield University, Rolls-Royce, and DCA Design International jointly have developed the Future Systems Simulator (FSS) for the purpose of research and development in areas such as human factors in aviation, single-pilot operations, future cockpit design, aircraft electrification, and alternative control approaches. Utilising the state-of-the-art modularity principles in simulation technology, the FSS is built to simulate a diverse range of current and novel aircraft, enabling researchers and industry partners to conduct experiments rapidly and efficiently. Central to the requirement, a unique, user-experience-centred development and design process is implemented for the development of the FSS. This paper presents the development process of such a flight simulator with an innovative flight deck. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates the FSS’s capabilities through case studies. The cutting-edge versatility and flexibility of the FSS are demonstrated through the diverse example research case studies. In the final section, the authors provide guidance for the development of an engineering flight simulator based on lessons learned in this project.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: RNA-seq of urine and kidney allograft biopsies (bx) found that urinary cell immune landscape reflects intragraft molecular events and we discovered a shared set of 127 mRNAs in urine matched to T cell mediated and antibody mediated rejection bx. We prioritized ITM2A, SLAMF6 and IKZF3 mRNAs and herein investigate if these accurately predict rejection. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We collected urine samples from adult kidney allograft (KA) recipients at the time of KA bx. KA bx were classified by pathologists by Banff criteria. Total RNA was isolated from KA bx-matched urine samples. Absolute copy numbers of ITM2A, SLAMF6, and IKZF3 mRNAs and 18S rRNA were measured using our customized RT-qPCR assays. Logistic regression used to derive an equation for a combined signature score of 18S-normalized urinary cell mRNA levels of ITM2A, IKZF3, and SLAMF6 that best predicts Acute Rejection (AR= both T cell mediated rejection and antibody mediated rejection). Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated to discriminate between AR and No Rejection (NR) biopsies for 18S-normalized urinary cell levels of ITM2A, IKZF3 and SLAMF6 and the composite signature score. AUCs were compared by DeLong Method. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Urinary cell 18S-normalized levels of ITM2A, IKZF3, and SLAMF6 mRNAs in urine discriminated KA recipients with AR biopsies (n=95) from those with NR biopsies (n=160) (All P values <0.05, Mann-Whitney test) and the AUC was 0.69 (95%CI, 0.62 to 0.76) for ITM2A, 0.61 (95%CI, 0.53 to 0.68) for IKZF3, and 0.60 (95%CI, 0.53 to 0.68) for SLAMF6. The derived combination signature score of urinary cell 18S-normalized levels of ITM2A, IKZF3, and SLAMF6 mRNA discriminated KA recipients with AR from those with NR (P<0.0001, Mann Whitney test) and the combined signature score AUC was 0.72 (95%CI, 0.65 to 0.79). The combination signature score discriminated AR vs NR better than IKZF3 and SLAMF6 alone, but was not significantly different than ITM2A alone (DeLong method). (Additional results/figures to be included in poster) DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our RNA-seq offered a unique opportunity to diagnose AR by measuring the mRNAs in urine. We now found that urinary cell mRNA levels of ITM2A, IKZF3, SLAMF6 and the combined signature are diagnostic of AR, a major and serious post-transplant complication. This allows for much-needed KA molecular surveillance and personalization of immunosuppression.

Although multiple types of adsorption sites have long been observed in montmorillonite, a consistent explanation about the chemical structure of these adsorption sites has not yet been established. Identifying the cation interlayer adsorption sites based on the octahedral cation distribution on montmorillonite was investigated in this study by using a Density Functional Theory (DFT) simulation. A clay structural model (H[Al6MgFe]Si16O40(OH)8) with a similar composition to Wyoming SWy-1 montmorillonite was built, where two octahedral Al were respectively substituted by Fe and Mg, and H+ was the charge compensating cation. This model had twenty-one different possible configurations as a function of the distribution of octahedral Al, Fe, and Mg cations. The DFT simulations of 15 of these different configurations showed no preference for the formation of any configuration with a specific octahedral Fe-Mg distance. However, the H+ adsorption energy was separated into three distinct groups based on the number of octahedral jumps from Fe to Mg atoms. The H+ adsorption energy significantly decreased with increasing number of octahedral jumps from Fe to Mg. Assuming an even probability of occurrence of 21 octahedral structures in montmorillonite, the percentages of these three groups are 43, 43, and 14%, respectively, which are very close to the three major sites on montmorillonite from published cation adsorption data. These DFT simulations offer an entirely new explanation for the location and chemical structure of the three major adsorption sites on montmorillonite, namely, all three sites are in the interlayer, and their adsorption strengths are a function of the number of octahedral jumps from Fe to Mg atoms.

Ion-exchange modeling is used widely to describe and predict ion-adsorption data on clay minerals. Although the model parameters are usually optimized by curve fitting experimental data, this approach does not confirm the identity of the adsorption sites. The purpose of the present study was to extend to divalent cations a previous study on the retention of monovalent cations on Na-saturated montmorillonite (NaMnt) which optimized some of the model parameters using density functional theory (DFT) simulations. The adsorption strength of divalent cations increased in the order Mg2+ < Cd2+ < Ca2+ < Sr2+ < Ba2+. After adding adsorption of metal hydroxide species (MOH+), the three-site ion-exchange model was able to describe adsorption data over a wide pH range (pH 1–10) on NaMnt. X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses were conducted to investigate the interlayer dimension of clay samples under various conditions. The cation retention strengths of divalent cations did not correlate with interlayer dimensions. The XRD analyses of the Mnt showed a d001 value of 19.6 Å when saturated with alkaline earth cations, 22.1 Å with Cd2+, 15.6 Å with Na+, and 15.2 Å with H+. In the case of Na+, the 15.6 Å peak decreased gradually and disappeared, and new peaks at 22.1 and 19.6 Å appeared when the percentages of Mg2+ and Ba2+ adsorbed increased on NaMnt. The peak shifted from 22.1 to 20.3 and 19.6 Å when the pH increased for all cations except Cd2+, which stayed constant at 22.1 Å. The coexistence of multiple d001 peaks in the XRD patterns suggested that the interlayer cations were segregated, and that the interlayer ion–ion interactions among different types of ions were minimized.

Functional montmorillonite can be dispersed in polymer coatings and organic species and polymers can be intercalated into the interlayer space or grafted onto the surface of the functional montmorillonite. The addition of functional montmorillonite into polymer-based coatings can significantly improve anti-corrosion, refractory, super-hydrophobicity, antibacterial activity, and absorption of solar radiation by the resulting montmorillonite/polymer coatings. Montmorillonite can be functionalized for this purpose by ion exchange, intercalation, exfoliation, or combinations of these treatments. The rigid montmorillonite layers interspersed within the polymer matrix inhibit the penetration of corrosive substances, minimize the impact of high-temperature airflow, and thereby lead to strong resistance of the coating to corrosion and fire. The combination of polymers and dispersed montmorillonite nanolayers, which are modified by metal ions, metal oxides, and hydrophobic organic species, allows the resulting  composite coating to have quite a rough surface and a much smaller surface free energy so that the montmorillonite/polymer coating possesses superhydrophobicity. The interlayer space of functional montmorillonite can also host or encapsulate antibacterial substances, phase-change materials, and solar energy-absorbing materials. Moreover, it can act as a template to make these guest species exist in a more stable and ordered state. Literature surveys suggest that future work on the functional montmorillonite/polymer coatings should be targeted at the manufacture of functional montmorillonite nanolayers by finding more suitable modifiers and tuning the dispersion and funtionalities of montmorillonite in the coatings.

Ion-exchange modeling is one of the most widely used methods to predict ion adsorption data on clay minerals. The model parameters (e.g. number of adsorption sites and the cation adsorption capacity of each site) are optimized normally by curve fitting experimental data, which does not definitively identify the local environment of the adsorption sites. A new approach for constructing an ion-exchange model was pursued, whereby some of the parameters needed were obtained independently, resulting in fewer parameters being based on data-curve fitting. Specifically, a reversed modeling approach was taken in which the number of types of sites used by the model was based on a previous first-principles Density Functional Theory study, and the relative distribution of these sites was based on the clay’s chemical composition. To simplify the ion-exchange reactions involved, montmorillonite was Na-saturated to produce a well-controlled Na-montmorillonite (NaMnt) adsorbent. Ion adsorption data on NaMnt were collected from batch experiments over a wide range of pH, Cs+ concentrations, and in the presence of coexisting cations. Ion-exchange models were developed and optimized to predict these cation adsorption data on NaMnt. The maximum amount of adsorption of monovalent cations on NaMnt was obtained from the plateau of the adsorption envelope data at high pH. The remaining equilibrium constants (pK) were optimized by curve fitting the edges of the adsorption envelope data. The resultant three-site ion-exchange model was able to predict the retention of Li+, Na+, K+, and Cs+ very well as a function of pH. The model was then tested on adsorption envelopes of various combinations of these cations, and on Cs+ adsorption isotherms at three different pH values. The pK values were constant for all assays. The interlayer spacing of NaMnt was also analyzed to investigate its relation with cation adsorption strength. An X-ray diffraction study of the samples showed that the measured d001 values for these cations were consistent with their adsorption pK values. The Cs+ cation showed a strong ability to collapse the interlayer region of montmorillonite. In the presence of multiple competing cations, the broadening and presence of multiple d001 XRD peaks suggested that the cations in the interlayers may be segregated.