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Technology costs and deployment rates, represented in experience curves, are typically seen as the main factors in the global clean energy transition from fossil fuels towards low-carbon energy sources. We argue that politics is the hidden dimension of technology experience curves, as it affects both costs and deployment. We draw from empirical analyses of diverse North American and European cases to describe patterns of political conflict surrounding clean energy adoption across a variety of technologies. Our analysis highlights that different political logics shape costs and deployment at different stages along the experience curve. The political institutions and conditions that nurture new technologies into economic winners are not always the same conditions that let incumbent technologies become economic losers. Thus, as the scale of technology adoption moves from niches towards systems, new political coalitions are necessary to push complementary system-wide technology. Since the cost curve is integrated globally, different countries can contribute to different steps in the transition as a function of their individual comparative political advantages.

Post-translocation monitoring is fundamental for assessing translocation success and identifying potential threats. We measured outcomes for four cohorts of tuatara Sphenodon punctatus translocated to warmer climates outside of their ecological region, to understand effects of climate warming. Translocation sites were on average 2–4 °C warmer than the source site. We used three short-term measures of success: survival, growth and reproduction. Data on recaptures, morphometric measurements, and reproduction were gathered over 2.5 years following release. Although decades of monitoring will be required to determine long-term translocation success in this species, we provide an interim measure of population progress and translocation site suitability. We found favourable recapture numbers, growth of founders and evidence of reproduction at most sites, with greater increases in body mass observed at warmer, less densely populated sites. Variable growth in the adult population at one translocation site suggested that higher population density, intraspecific competition, and lower water availability could be responsible for substantial weight loss in multiple individuals, and we make management recommendations to reduce population density. Overall, we found that sites with warmer climates and lower population densities were potentially beneficial to translocated tuatara, probably because of enhanced temperature-dependent and density-dependent growth rates. We conclude that tuatara could benefit from translocations to warmer sites in the short term, but further monitoring of this long-lived species is required to determine longer-term population viability following translocation. Future vulnerability to rising air temperatures, associated water availability, and community and ecosystem changes beyond the scope of this study must be considered.

The current study evaluated the uncertainty of beef cattle supply for slaughter due to the variable climate of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The data included the numbers of cattle slaughtered, local live cattle prices, price and amount of exported beef, and the prices of the Brazilian beef futures market. Data were collected on the beef supply from January 1997 to March 2014. Climate data included El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN), South Atlantic Sub-tropical Dipole (SASD), Negative and Positive Atlantic Dipole (−AD and +AD), Tropical South and North Atlantic indices. Statistical analysis was performed by a multivariate regression of time series. It was observed that EN and SASD climatic variables increased the numbers of beef cattle slaughtered, with a 1 and 4-month lag, respectively. On the other hand, LN and -AD decreased the number of animals slaughtered, with 4 and 0 months’ lag, respectively, meaning that there was an immediate response to −AD, while there was a 4-month delay for LN. The amount of exported beef and live beef cattle prices were explained by the number of animals slaughtered in the state. Data suggested that the beef cattle market in RS was more strongly influenced by the occurrence of climate phenomena with LN and −AD than by economic variables such as the price paid to the producer for beef and the amount exported. The climate changes evaluated in the current study affect the livestock production system and consequently the beef market industry in Southern Brazil.

Livestock plays an important role in the global economy. Climate change effects are not only limited to crop production, but also affect livestock production, for example reduced milk yields and milk quality, reduced meat production and reduced fertility. Therefore, livestock-based food security is threatened in many parts of the world. Furthermore, multiple stressors are a common phenomenon in many environments, and are likely to increase due to climate change. Among these stresses, heat stress appears to be the major factor which negatively influences livestock production. Hence, it is critical to identify agro-ecological zone-specific climate resilient thermo-tolerant animals to sustain livestock production. Livestock responds to the changing environments by altering their phenotypic and physiological characters. Therefore, survivability of the animal often depends on its ability to cope with or adapt to the existing conditions. So to sustain livestock production in an environment challenged by climate change, the animals must be genetically suitable and have the ability to survive in diversified environments. Biological markers or biomarkers indicate the biological states or alterations in expression pattern of genes or state of protein that serve as a reference point in breeding for the genetic improvement of livestock. Conventionally, identification of animals with superior genetic traits that were economically beneficial was the fundamental reason for identifying biomarkers in animals. Furthermore, compared with the behavioural, morphological or physiological responses in animals, the genetic markers are important because of the possibility of finding a solution to animal adaptability to climate change.

Cryoconite holes are small depressions of the glacier surface filled with melting water and with a wind-blown debris on the bottom. These environments are considered hot spots of biodiversity and biological activities on glaciers and host communities dominated by bacteria. Most of the studies on cryoconite holes assume that their communities are stable. However, evidence of seasonal variation in cryoconite hole ecological communities exists. We investigated the variation of the bacterial communities of cryoconite holes of Forni Glacier (Central Italian Alps) during the melting seasons (July–September) 2013 and 2016, for which samples at three and five time-points, respectively were available. Bacterial communities were characterized by high-throughput Illumina sequencing of the hypervariable V5−V6 regions of 16S rRNA gene, while meteorological data were obtained by an automatic weather station. We found consistent trends in bacterial communities, which shifted from cyanobacteria-dominated communities in July to communities dominated by heterotrophic orders in late August and September. Temperature seems also to affect seasonal dynamics of communities. We also compared bacterial communities at the beginning of the melting season across 4 years (2012, 2013, 2015 and 2016) and found significant year-to-year variability. Cryoconite hole communities on temperate glaciers are therefore not temporally stable.

Using a sample survey from Vietnam's M&RRD, this study examines both the factors affecting smallholder households’ perceptions of climate change, and the impact of climatic change on smallholders’ income and land allocation decisions. Results show a significant and negative impact of perception of climate change on income of smallholder households. Smallholders with perceived climate changes reduce land allocated to paddy crop. Farmers make strategic decision to counter the negative effects of climate change by increasing the amount of rented land for paddy crop production, while at the same time decreasing the amount of owned land allocated to paddy crop.

Climate change will increase variability in temperature and precipitation on rangelands, impacting ecosystem services including livestock grazing. Facing uncertainty about future climate, managers must know if current practices will maintain rangeland sustainability. Herein, the future density of an invasive species, broom snakeweed, is estimated using a long-term ecological dataset and climate projections. We find that livestock stocking rates determined using a current method result in lower forage production, allowable stocking rate, and grazing value than an economically efficient stocking rate. Results indicate that using ecology and adaptive methods in management are critical to the sustainability of rangelands.

The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change is relevant to human rights law, not for what it says about human rights— which is next to nothing—but for what it says about the need to address the risk of climate change taking global temperatures above 1.5 or 2 °C. The Agreement could work, or it could fail by a large margin, but those who want to influence the outcome can still do so. That includes the human rights community. Since climate change is plainly a threat to human rights, how should the UN human rights institutions respond? Should they use their existing powers of oversight to focus attention on how States parties implement (or fail to implement) commitments made in the Paris Agreement? Or should they recognize a right to the enjoyment of a safe, clean, healthy and sustainable environment? Either choice would represent a significant contribution to the debate on human rights and climate change, giving humanity as a whole a voice that at present is scarcely heard.

The woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) was widespread in almost all of Europe during the late Pleistocene. However, its distribution changed because of population fluctuations and range expansions and reductions. During Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 2 (MIS 2), these processes were highly dynamic. Our analyses of 318 radiocarbon dates from 162 localities, obtained directly from mammoth material, confirmed important changes in mammoth range between ~28.6 and ~14.1 ka. The Greenland stadial 3 interval (27.5–23.3 ka) was the time of maximum expansion of the mammoth in Europe during MIS 2. The continuous range was soon fragmented and reduced, resulting in the disappearance of Mammuthus during the last glacial maximum from ~21.4 to ~19.2 ka in all parts of the North European Plain. It is not clear whether mammoths survived in the East European Plain. The mammoth returned to Europe soon after ~19.0 ka, and for the next 3–4 millennia played an important role in the lifeways of Epigravettian societies in eastern Europe. Mammoths became extinct in most of Europe by ~14.0 ka, except for core areas such as the far northeast of Europe, where they survived until the beginning of the Holocene. No significant correlation was found between the distribution of the mammoth in Europe and human activity.

The structure and function of grassland ecosystems can be altered by a changing climate, including higher temperature and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Previous studies suggest that there is no consistent trend in seed germination and seedling recruitment as affected by these conditions. We collected seeds of two native and two invasive species over 6 years from a field study with elevated CO2 (600 p.p.m.) and temperature (1.5/3.0°C day/night) on the mixed-grass prairie of Wyoming, USA. Seed fill, viability and mass were evaluated and germination tests were conducted under alternating temperatures in growth chambers. Thermal time requirements to reach 50% germination (θ50) and base temperatures (Tb) for germination were determined using thermal time models. Climate change conditions had limited effects on seed fill, viability and mass. The combination of CO2 enrichment and warming increased germination of Bouteloua gracilis. Centaurea diffusa and Linaria dalmatica, two invasive species in this study, had the lowest θ50 and Tb required for germination among all the species studied. Although final germination percentages of these invasive species were not affected by treatments, previous studies reported increased seed production under future climate conditions, indicating that they could be more invasive at the regeneration stage in the future. We conclude that projected future temperature increases will have little effect on seed reproductive traits of native species. In addition, the distribution and abundance of B. gracilis and invasive species may be favoured by global climate change due to enhanced germination or seed production traits caused by elevated parental CO2 and temperature conditions.

In this paper, we use a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the effects of drought and a decrease in agricultural productivity caused by climate change in Guatemala. A reduction in agricultural productivity would mean a considerable drop in crop and livestock production, and the resulting higher prices and lower household income would mean a significant reduction in the consumption of agricultural goods and food. The most negative effects of a drought would be concentrated in agriculture, given its intensive use of water. Because agricultural production is essential to ensuring food availability, these results suggest that Guatemala needs a proper water-distribution regulatory framework.

Seven main periods of soil formation can be distinguished in the floodplain of the Moskva (Moscow) River, with the oldest paleosols dated to the Allerød age. We analyzed paleosols buried under alluvial deposits, colluvial sediments, and archaeological deposits within the catchment area of the Moskva River. Paleopedological reconstructions were correlated with the results of the pedoanthracological and palynological analyses. Series of radiocarbon (14C) dates were obtained on humic acids and dispersed macro-charcoal from paleosols and archaeological features. Wide time frames of the floodplain paleosol formation were determined at a 95% probability as 14,600–12,600 cal BP for Soil 7; 9500–7000 cal BP for Soils 6 and 5; 6700–5500 cal BP for Soil 4; 5000–4400 cal BP for Soil 3b; 4100–2700 cal BP for Soil 3a; and 2000–700 cal BP for Soil 2. The dates were compared with the age of archaeological sites from the same areas. The comparison revealed a close correspondence between the ages of the soil charcoal and the timing of archaeological occupations. That allowed us to conclude that the fire occurrence on a regional level was associated mainly with the human occupation. The fire record is especially pronounced in floodplain paleosols, due to both the role of rivers as human migration corridors, and the integral accumulation of combustion products from the entire catchment area in these paleosols.

Recent Palestinian Authority (PA) initiatives to help Palestine adapt to climate change help shine light on the role that climate uncertainties play in how political futures can be represented. UN-led adaptation has occasioned opportunities for new networks of actors to make claims about Palestinian futures and to perform PA readiness for statehood. These actors weigh scientific uncertainties about climate against uncertainties over if and when settler colonialism in Palestine will end. How they do so matters because it is the foundation of requests for capital that could be translated into some of the most important institutions and infrastructures of Palestinian governance over the next several years, including those that provide Palestinians with access to water. It also matters because it constitutes the image with which PA officials represent what needs to be “fixed” in Palestine in important international forums such as the UN. Climate change adaptation is a new approach to the management of uncertain environmental futures. This analysis offers insight into how this approach shapes and is shaped by practices of statecraft in places marked by the volatilities of war, economic crisis, and occupation.

What is a Classical Realist analysis of climate ethics and politics? Classical Realist ethical analysis differs from ideal normative theory in that it addresses state decision-makers rather than individuals, assumes highly imperfect compliance with the demands of justice, and is concerned with feasibility and transition rather than end-states. Classical Realists urge leaders to prioritise state security over private moral concerns, to assess rival policies against their likely consequences and to seek the ‘lesser evil’ among feasible choices. But how does Realism respond when the prudent pursuit of state security risks rendering much of the planet uninhabitable? In the 1950s, the development of the hydrogen bomb created just such a dilemma as status quo politics now carried a significant risk of thermonuclear omnicide. In response, Hans Morgenthau argued that states should manage systemic risk by working in concert to safeguard expanded, collective national interests. The Classical Realist mode of thought suggests an analogous response to systemic climate risks: states’ conceptions of national interest must expand to include cooperative system-preservation alongside traditional security concerns. Classical Realist arguments might then be mobilised to overcome resistance from vested interests and to support state-directed low carbon innovation, adaptation and mitigation agreements that prioritise ambition over distributional justice.

The widespread retreat of mountain glaciers is a striking emblem of recent climate change. Yet mass-balance observations indicate that many glaciers are out of equilibrium with current climate, meaning that observed retreats do not show the full response to warming. This is a fundamental consequence of glacier dynamics: mountain glaciers typically have multidecadal response timescales, and so their response lags centennial-scale climate trends. A substantial difference between transient and equilibrium glacier length persists throughout the warming period; we refer to this length difference as ‘disequilibrium’. Forcing idealized glacier geometries with gradual warming shows that the glacier response timescale fundamentally governs the evolution of disequilibrium. Comparing a hierarchy of different glacier models suggests that accurate estimates of ice thickness and climatology, which control the timescale, are more important than higher order ice dynamics for capturing disequilibrium. Current glacier disequilibrium has previously been estimated for a selection of individual glaciers; our idealized modeling shows that sustained disequilibrium is a fundamental response of glacier dynamics, and is robust across a range of glacier geometries. This implies that many mountain glaciers are committed to additional, kilometer-scale retreats, even without further warming. Disequilibrium must also be addressed when calibrating glacier models used for climate reconstructions and projections of retreat in response to future warming.

The World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WADEM; Madison, Wisconsin USA) is a multi-disciplinary professional association whose mission is the global improvement of prehospital and emergency health care, public health, and disaster health and preparedness. In April 2017, the biennial general meeting of the World Congress for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WCDEM) endorsed the WADEM Climate Change Position Statement, which was subsequently published in Prehospital and Disaster Medicine in July 2017. This special report examines literature used and reviews the process of development of this Position Statement as a product of WADEM.

Cuthbertson J, Archer F, Robertson A. Special report: WADEM climate change position statement. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(4):428–431

This article analyzes the international law obligations that arise in relation to nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It argues that distinct and concurrent obligations arise from two separate sources. On the one hand, treaty obligations arise under the Paris Agreement, which imposes an obligation of conduct on parties: they must take adequate measures towards the realization of the mitigation targets contained in their NDCs. On the other hand, communications such as NDCs may constitute unilateral declarations that also create legal obligations. These unilateral declarations impose obligations of various types, which may extend beyond mitigation. For example, they may specify measures of implementation or demand the achievement of a particular result. The potential ‘double-bindingness’ of NDCs should be a central consideration in the interpretation of international law obligations regarding climate change.

REDD+ – an incentive mechanism to reduce deforestation and associated greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries – was developed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and subsequently included in the Paris Agreement. Its early implementation activities have highlighted the role of certain intergovernmental actors: REDD+financing initiatives, including the World Bank’s Forest Carbon Partnership Facility and Forest Investment Programme, and UN-REDD, a collaborative programme involving three agencies of the United Nations. By setting conditions for the provision of support for REDD+, these initiatives have actively and influentially engaged in REDD+rule making. This article focuses on the regulatory landscape for REDD+and examines rules developed under the UNFCCC and elaborated by the REDD+financing initiatives, using examples from the Latin American region. The analysis shows that informal lawmaking plays a more relevant role in REDD+rule making than international formal law, and has demonstrated legal and practical effects. However, informality can also tilt power relations between donor and recipient countries, which could jeopardize the legitimacy of transnational rule making.

The effectiveness of adaptation strategies is crucial for reducing the costs of climate change. Using plot-level data from a specifically designed survey conducted in Pakistan, we investigate the productive benefits for farmers who adapt to climate change. The impact of implementing on-farm adaptation strategies is estimated separately for two staple crops: wheat and rice. We employ propensity score matching and endogenous switching regressions to account for the possibility that farmers self-select into adaptation. Estimated productivity gains are positive and significant for rice farmers who adapted, but negligible for wheat. Counterfactual gains for non-adapters were significantly positive, which is potentially a sign of transactions costs to adaptation. Other factors associated with adaptation were formal credit and extension, underscoring the importance of addressing institutional and informational constraints that inhibit farmers from improving their farming practices. The findings provide evidence for the Pakistani Planning and Development Department's ongoing assessment of climate-related agricultural losses.

Using a variety of optical satellite scenes, this study quantifies the change in the areal extent of 1773 glaciers across Northern Ellesmere Island between ~1999 and ~2015. Our results show that the regional ice coverage decreased by 1705.3 km2 over the ~16-year period, a loss of ~5.9%. Ice shelves had the greatest losses relative to their size, of ~42.4%. Glaciers feeding into ice shelves reduced in area by 4.7%, while tidewater glaciers reduced in area by 3.3%. Marine-terminating glaciers with floating ice tongues reduced in area by 4.9%, and 19 of these 27 ice tongues disintegrated, causing these glaciers to retreat to their grounding lines. Land-terminating glaciers lost 4.9% of their 1999 area, including the complete loss of three small ice caps (<1.5 km2). Our study highlights the high sensitivity of the ice cover of Northern Ellesmere Island to recent climate warming and the continued losses that are likely to occur in the future. In particular, the ice masses most susceptible to further losses are marine-terminating glaciers with floating termini and small land-terminating ice caps at low elevations.