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The medium-high mountain ranges of Western Europe are undergoing rapid socio-environmental changes. The aim of this study is to show that their landscape can be strongly shaped by the actions of avalanche activity, humans and climate. The study area is the Rothenbachkopf-Rainkopf complex, a site representative of avalanche-prone areas of the Vosges Mountains (France). A geo-historical approach documents regular avalanche activity over more than 200 years on 13 paths. A diachronic analysis of historical maps and photographs demonstrates substantial afforestation (from 60 to 80% of the total surface since 1832). LIDAR data and field surveys highlight the existence of a longitudinal and transversal structure of trees. Hence, the avalanche, human and climate activity footprints are retained by the landscape, which rapidly adapts to these changing drivers. Specifically, the pattern of tree species and heights results from a near equilibrium with regular avalanche activity sometimes disturbed by major avalanches that induce quasi-cyclic changes in the landscape mosaic. The afforestation trend is attributable to profound changes in silvo-pastoral practices, supplemented by the impact of climate change. The wider relevance of the results in relation to the local context is discussed, as well as outlooks that can refine our understanding of this complex system.

How does the salience of environmental issues influence climate policy adoption in the American states? This article considers how two aspects of public salience, issue problem status and issue attention, work with environmental interest group membership to influence climate policy adoption in the American states. We contribute to the theoretical development of issue salience and offer alternative measures that capture differences in salience across subnational units. We find evidence that states where climate change is perceived to be a problem, and where attention to environmental issues is high, are more likely to adopt relevant policies. Furthermore, states with Republican majorities in either legislative chamber are less likely to adopt climate policies. Our findings have implications for the impact of salience on the policy process.

Research has repeatedly shown that individuals and organisations tend to obtain information from others whose beliefs are similar to their own, forming “echo chambers” with their network ties. Echo chambers are potentially harmful for evidence-based policymaking as they can hinder policy learning and consensus building. Policy forums could help alleviate the effects of echo chambers if organisations with different views were to participate and to use the opportunities that forums provide to learn from those outside their networks. Applying exponential random graph models on survey data of the Irish climate change policy network, we find that policy actors do indeed tend to obtain policy advice from those whose beliefs are similar to their own. We also find that actors tend not to obtain policy advice from the those that they encounter at policy forums, suggesting forums are not enabling policy learning.

Understanding the consequences of environmental fluctuations for parasite dynamics requires a long-term view stretching over many transmission cycles. Here we studied the dynamics of three malaria parasites (Plasmodium azurophilum, P. leucocytica and P. floridense) infecting the lizard Anolis gundlachi, in the rainforest of Puerto Rico. In this malaria–anole system we evaluated temporal fluctuations in individual probability of infection, the environmental drivers of observed variation and consequences for host body condition and Plasmodium parasites assemblage. We conducted a total of 15 surveys including 10 from 1990 to 2002 and five from 2015 to 2017. During the early years, a lizard's probability of infection by all Plasmodium species appeared stable despite disturbances ranging from two hurricanes to short droughts. Over a longer timescale, probability of infection and overall prevalence varied significantly, following non-linear relationships with temperature and rainfall such that highest prevalence is expected at intermediate climate measures. A perplexing result was that host body condition was maximized at intermediate levels of rainfall and/or temperature (when risk of infection was highest), yet we found no significant decreases in body condition due to infection. Plasmodium parasite species composition varied through time with a reduction and near local extinction of P. floridense. Our results emphasize the need for long-term studies to reveal host–parasite dynamics, their drivers and consequences.

This article reflects on the implications of the Trump presidency for global anthropogenic climate change and efforts to address it. Existing commentary, predicated on liberal institutionalist reasoning, has argued that neither Trump’s promised rollback of domestic climate-related funding and regulations, nor withdrawal from the Paris framework, will be as impactful as often feared. While broadly concurring, I nonetheless also in this article take a wider view, to argue that the Trump administration is likely to exacerbate several existing patterns and trends. I discuss four in particular: the general inadequacy of global greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets and implementation efforts; the inadequacy of contemporary climate financing; the embrace between populist conservatism and opposition to action on climate change; and not least, the current global oil and gas boom which, crucially, is being led by the US. I submit that these patterns and trends, and the Trump administration’s likely contributions to them, do not augur well for climate change mitigation, let alone for an orderly transition to a low-carbon global economy. Given current directions of travel, I suggest, this coming transition is likely to be deeply conflict-laden – probably violently so – and to have consequences that will reverberate right across mid-twentieth-century international order.

The upward evolution of temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula has weakened and even reversed in the last two decades. Due to the long-term variability in the region it is not easy to assess whether recent cooling trends are consistent with the internal variability or not. For this reason, this paper assesses the robustness of the trends by analysing their sensitivity with respect to the period selected. Every possible temperature trend in the interval 1958–2016 has been calculated and displayed in a two-dimensional parameter diagram. The results suggest that the warming observed in the Antarctic Peninsula since 1958 is quite robust, as all periods longer than 30 years exhibit statistically significant changes, especially in summer (with lower magnitude and higher significance) and autumn and winter (with larger magnitude and lower significance). Periods shorter than 30 years exhibit alternations of warming and cooling periods, and therefore do not represent robust trends even if they are statistically significant. Consequently, the recent 20-year cooling trend cannot be considered at the moment as evidence of a shift in the overall sign of the trend.

Past atmospheric pollution can be reconstructed from ice core trace element records retrieved from mountain glaciers. However, the current global temperature increase can result in post-depositional melt processes, significantly altering the originally stored information. Here, we present a comprehensive study on the behaviour of 35 trace elements (TEs) during meltwater percolation in a high-Alpine ice core segment from upper Grenzgletscher, Switzerland. Some TEs revealed significant concentration depletion, whereas others were well preserved depending on their water solubility and location at the grain scale. TEs present in insoluble minerals, typically enriched at grain boundaries, were found to be mostly preserved because their insolubility in water results in immobility with meltwater percolation. Water-soluble TEs revealed a variable meltwater-mobility. Whereas ultra-TEs tend to be preserved, likely due to incorporation into the ice lattice, abundant TEs are prone to relocation from grain-boundary regions. We propose that at Alpine sites, Ag, Al, Bi, Cu, Cs, Fe, Li, Mo, Pb, Rb, Sb, Th, Tl, U, V, W, Zr and the rare-earth elements may still be applicable as robust environmental proxies even if partial melting occurred, whereas Ba, Ca, Cd Co, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Sr and Zn are prone to significant depletion.

Given the need for legislation to protect internally displaced persons, African Heads of State and Government adopted the Convention on the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa in Kampala in October 2009. The convention, which entered into force on 6 December 2012, is an important binding instrument on internal displacement. Article 10 of the convention requires states to prevent displacement caused by development projects, including climate-based development projects. This article examines the content of this obligation within the context of climate-based development projects.

Technology costs and deployment rates, represented in experience curves, are typically seen as the main factors in the global clean energy transition from fossil fuels towards low-carbon energy sources. We argue that politics is the hidden dimension of technology experience curves, as it affects both costs and deployment. We draw from empirical analyses of diverse North American and European cases to describe patterns of political conflict surrounding clean energy adoption across a variety of technologies. Our analysis highlights that different political logics shape costs and deployment at different stages along the experience curve. The political institutions and conditions that nurture new technologies into economic winners are not always the same conditions that let incumbent technologies become economic losers. Thus, as the scale of technology adoption moves from niches towards systems, new political coalitions are necessary to push complementary system-wide technology. Since the cost curve is integrated globally, different countries can contribute to different steps in the transition as a function of their individual comparative political advantages.

Post-translocation monitoring is fundamental for assessing translocation success and identifying potential threats. We measured outcomes for four cohorts of tuatara Sphenodon punctatus translocated to warmer climates outside of their ecological region, to understand effects of climate warming. Translocation sites were on average 2–4 °C warmer than the source site. We used three short-term measures of success: survival, growth and reproduction. Data on recaptures, morphometric measurements, and reproduction were gathered over 2.5 years following release. Although decades of monitoring will be required to determine long-term translocation success in this species, we provide an interim measure of population progress and translocation site suitability. We found favourable recapture numbers, growth of founders and evidence of reproduction at most sites, with greater increases in body mass observed at warmer, less densely populated sites. Variable growth in the adult population at one translocation site suggested that higher population density, intraspecific competition, and lower water availability could be responsible for substantial weight loss in multiple individuals, and we make management recommendations to reduce population density. Overall, we found that sites with warmer climates and lower population densities were potentially beneficial to translocated tuatara, probably because of enhanced temperature-dependent and density-dependent growth rates. We conclude that tuatara could benefit from translocations to warmer sites in the short term, but further monitoring of this long-lived species is required to determine longer-term population viability following translocation. Future vulnerability to rising air temperatures, associated water availability, and community and ecosystem changes beyond the scope of this study must be considered.

Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.

Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.

We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.

For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1 for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1 for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1 in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1 for the year 2100.

We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

Livestock plays an important role in the global economy. Climate change effects are not only limited to crop production, but also affect livestock production, for example reduced milk yields and milk quality, reduced meat production and reduced fertility. Therefore, livestock-based food security is threatened in many parts of the world. Furthermore, multiple stressors are a common phenomenon in many environments, and are likely to increase due to climate change. Among these stresses, heat stress appears to be the major factor which negatively influences livestock production. Hence, it is critical to identify agro-ecological zone-specific climate resilient thermo-tolerant animals to sustain livestock production. Livestock responds to the changing environments by altering their phenotypic and physiological characters. Therefore, survivability of the animal often depends on its ability to cope with or adapt to the existing conditions. So to sustain livestock production in an environment challenged by climate change, the animals must be genetically suitable and have the ability to survive in diversified environments. Biological markers or biomarkers indicate the biological states or alterations in expression pattern of genes or state of protein that serve as a reference point in breeding for the genetic improvement of livestock. Conventionally, identification of animals with superior genetic traits that were economically beneficial was the fundamental reason for identifying biomarkers in animals. Furthermore, compared with the behavioural, morphological or physiological responses in animals, the genetic markers are important because of the possibility of finding a solution to animal adaptability to climate change.

Cryoconite holes are small depressions of the glacier surface filled with melting water and with a wind-blown debris on the bottom. These environments are considered hot spots of biodiversity and biological activities on glaciers and host communities dominated by bacteria. Most of the studies on cryoconite holes assume that their communities are stable. However, evidence of seasonal variation in cryoconite hole ecological communities exists. We investigated the variation of the bacterial communities of cryoconite holes of Forni Glacier (Central Italian Alps) during the melting seasons (July–September) 2013 and 2016, for which samples at three and five time-points, respectively were available. Bacterial communities were characterized by high-throughput Illumina sequencing of the hypervariable V5−V6 regions of 16S rRNA gene, while meteorological data were obtained by an automatic weather station. We found consistent trends in bacterial communities, which shifted from cyanobacteria-dominated communities in July to communities dominated by heterotrophic orders in late August and September. Temperature seems also to affect seasonal dynamics of communities. We also compared bacterial communities at the beginning of the melting season across 4 years (2012, 2013, 2015 and 2016) and found significant year-to-year variability. Cryoconite hole communities on temperate glaciers are therefore not temporally stable.

The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change is relevant to human rights law, not for what it says about human rights— which is next to nothing—but for what it says about the need to address the risk of climate change taking global temperatures above 1.5 or 2 °C. The Agreement could work, or it could fail by a large margin, but those who want to influence the outcome can still do so. That includes the human rights community. Since climate change is plainly a threat to human rights, how should the UN human rights institutions respond? Should they use their existing powers of oversight to focus attention on how States parties implement (or fail to implement) commitments made in the Paris Agreement? Or should they recognize a right to the enjoyment of a safe, clean, healthy and sustainable environment? Either choice would represent a significant contribution to the debate on human rights and climate change, giving humanity as a whole a voice that at present is scarcely heard.

The woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) was widespread in almost all of Europe during the late Pleistocene. However, its distribution changed because of population fluctuations and range expansions and reductions. During Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 2 (MIS 2), these processes were highly dynamic. Our analyses of 318 radiocarbon dates from 162 localities, obtained directly from mammoth material, confirmed important changes in mammoth range between ~28.6 and ~14.1 ka. The Greenland stadial 3 interval (27.5–23.3 ka) was the time of maximum expansion of the mammoth in Europe during MIS 2. The continuous range was soon fragmented and reduced, resulting in the disappearance of Mammuthus during the last glacial maximum from ~21.4 to ~19.2 ka in all parts of the North European Plain. It is not clear whether mammoths survived in the East European Plain. The mammoth returned to Europe soon after ~19.0 ka, and for the next 3–4 millennia played an important role in the lifeways of Epigravettian societies in eastern Europe. Mammoths became extinct in most of Europe by ~14.0 ka, except for core areas such as the far northeast of Europe, where they survived until the beginning of the Holocene. No significant correlation was found between the distribution of the mammoth in Europe and human activity.

The structure and function of grassland ecosystems can be altered by a changing climate, including higher temperature and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Previous studies suggest that there is no consistent trend in seed germination and seedling recruitment as affected by these conditions. We collected seeds of two native and two invasive species over 6 years from a field study with elevated CO2 (600 p.p.m.) and temperature (1.5/3.0°C day/night) on the mixed-grass prairie of Wyoming, USA. Seed fill, viability and mass were evaluated and germination tests were conducted under alternating temperatures in growth chambers. Thermal time requirements to reach 50% germination (θ50) and base temperatures (Tb) for germination were determined using thermal time models. Climate change conditions had limited effects on seed fill, viability and mass. The combination of CO2 enrichment and warming increased germination of Bouteloua gracilis. Centaurea diffusa and Linaria dalmatica, two invasive species in this study, had the lowest θ50 and Tb required for germination among all the species studied. Although final germination percentages of these invasive species were not affected by treatments, previous studies reported increased seed production under future climate conditions, indicating that they could be more invasive at the regeneration stage in the future. We conclude that projected future temperature increases will have little effect on seed reproductive traits of native species. In addition, the distribution and abundance of B. gracilis and invasive species may be favoured by global climate change due to enhanced germination or seed production traits caused by elevated parental CO2 and temperature conditions.

In this paper, we use a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the effects of drought and a decrease in agricultural productivity caused by climate change in Guatemala. A reduction in agricultural productivity would mean a considerable drop in crop and livestock production, and the resulting higher prices and lower household income would mean a significant reduction in the consumption of agricultural goods and food. The most negative effects of a drought would be concentrated in agriculture, given its intensive use of water. Because agricultural production is essential to ensuring food availability, these results suggest that Guatemala needs a proper water-distribution regulatory framework.

Seven main periods of soil formation can be distinguished in the floodplain of the Moskva (Moscow) River, with the oldest paleosols dated to the Allerød age. We analyzed paleosols buried under alluvial deposits, colluvial sediments, and archaeological deposits within the catchment area of the Moskva River. Paleopedological reconstructions were correlated with the results of the pedoanthracological and palynological analyses. Series of radiocarbon (14C) dates were obtained on humic acids and dispersed macro-charcoal from paleosols and archaeological features. Wide time frames of the floodplain paleosol formation were determined at a 95% probability as 14,600–12,600 cal BP for Soil 7; 9500–7000 cal BP for Soils 6 and 5; 6700–5500 cal BP for Soil 4; 5000–4400 cal BP for Soil 3b; 4100–2700 cal BP for Soil 3a; and 2000–700 cal BP for Soil 2. The dates were compared with the age of archaeological sites from the same areas. The comparison revealed a close correspondence between the ages of the soil charcoal and the timing of archaeological occupations. That allowed us to conclude that the fire occurrence on a regional level was associated mainly with the human occupation. The fire record is especially pronounced in floodplain paleosols, due to both the role of rivers as human migration corridors, and the integral accumulation of combustion products from the entire catchment area in these paleosols.

Using a sample survey from Vietnam's M&RRD, this study examines both the factors affecting smallholder households’ perceptions of climate change, and the impact of climatic change on smallholders’ income and land allocation decisions. Results show a significant and negative impact of perception of climate change on income of smallholder households. Smallholders with perceived climate changes reduce land allocated to paddy crop. Farmers make strategic decision to counter the negative effects of climate change by increasing the amount of rented land for paddy crop production, while at the same time decreasing the amount of owned land allocated to paddy crop.

Climate change will likely impact the ecosystem services and biodiversity generated from conserved land. Land conservation can also play a significant role in achieving cost-effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. In this special issue we feature seven papers from the 2017 NAREA Workshop, “Climate Change and Land Conservation and Restoration: Advances in Economics Methods and Policies for Adaptation and Mitigation.” The articles include papers furthering the methodological frontier; portfolio optimization, dynamic rangeland stocking, and global timber harvest models, and those highlighting innovative applications; climate smart agricultural practices in Nigeria and Vietnam, welfare impacts on birding, and carbon and albedo pricing.